Explosive Election in Slovakia: Pro-Kremlin Leader Shakes Country's Stance on Ukraine

Slovakia is currently participating in a parliamentary election on Saturday, which is deemed as a highly crucial vote that could potentially reshape the country's stance towards Ukraine and create significant divisions within NATO and the European Union.

The leading candidate, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, has been open about his favoritism towards the Kremlin throughout his election campaign. He has criticized Western nations for their support of Ukraine and has adopted a strong anti-US stance, going so far as to accuse Slovakia's President Zuzana Čaputová of being a puppet for American interests. Fico has expressed his intention to halt the supply of weapons to Ukraine and obstruct the country's NATO aspirations if he becomes the elected leader.

The SMER party, led by Ficos, a left-wing populist, has maintained a leading position for several months. However, recent opinion polls indicate that the Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, led by Michal Šimečka, the Vice-President of the EU Parliament, is providing strong competition. The PS party advocates for a different future for Slovakia, emphasizing unwavering support for Kyiv and fostering robust connections with Western nations.

Misinformation and Russian propaganda have gained prominence during the election campaign, leading to criticism of social media companies for their inadequate efforts to combat it. According to Věra Jourová, the European Commission's top official in digital affairs, Slovakia has been specifically targeted by Russia as a breeding ground for the success of pro-Kremlin and pro-war narratives.

She said the election was a "test case" on the power of social media and misinformation. "The approach to Russian war in Ukraine is a divisive line (in the election)," she said.

Coalition likely

According to polls, it is uncertain which party will win the election. However, neither party is expected to win a majority, making it unlikely for them to form a government independently. Additionally, up to nine parties could potentially enter parliament if they achieve the 5% threshold. Consequently, coalition negotiations are likely to involve multiple parties and could be protracted and chaotic. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the leader of the largest party will assume the role of prime minister.

Former Slovak Prime Minister and chairman of the Smer-SD party, Robert Fico, is seen speaking at the party's election campaign rally in Nitra, Slovakia, on 12 September 2023. Fico, a socially conservative left-wing populist and two-time former prime minister, is currently leading the polls ahead of the upcoming elections. His party has called for a cessation of military aid to neighboring Ukraine. The parliamentary elections in Slovakia are scheduled for 30 September 2023. This photo was taken during the Slovak pre-election campaign of Fico's Smer-SD party in Nitra, Slovakia on 12 September 2023.

Martin Divisek/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

A NATO country could soon have a pro-Russian leader

Hlas, a party that emerged from a disagreement within SMER between supporters of Fico and then-Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, was ranked third in the previous election and has the potential to play a pivotal role in forming the government.

Pellegrini assumed the position of prime minister in 2018 following Fico's resignation due to public outcry and demonstrations following the tragic killing of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancee Martina Kušnírová.

But opinion polls indicate that both Fico and Šimečka are unlikely to have sufficient seats to establish a government solely with Hlas, necessitating the involvement of additional coalition parties.

Additionally, Fico has not dismissed the possibility of cooperating with Republika, an extremist far-right party, which asserts that the conflict in Ukraine is a result of NATO's "expansion towards Russia" and Kyiv's "aggression towards the Russian minority in eastern Ukraine."

Meanwhile, PS is expected to seek the support of the Christian democratic KDH party, the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party, or a coalition centered around the right-leaning Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO) party. OLaNO emerged victorious in the previous election in 2020, however, its administration crumbled due to a string of scandals and internal conflicts.

In its manifesto, PS emphasized the necessity of providing Ukraine with comprehensive assistance in humanitarian aid, finance, diplomacy, and military support to counteract Russian aggression.

Not another round of ammunition for Ukraine

Fico, an established vote earner, is a charismatic leader who has successfully appealed to a wide range of voters. He has emerged victoriously in three previous parliamentary elections, with his remarkable achievement in 2012 being unparalleled since the historic revolution of 1989 as he secured an absolute majority - a feat that no other political party has been able to replicate.

Agricultural workers harvest a large field of barley near the border with Russia in the Chernihiv region on August 30, 2023 in Chernihiv, Ukraine.

Pierre Crom/Getty Images

Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to defy EU and extend ban on Ukrainian grain imports

His potential comeback to power could have significant implications for the region. Slovakia, being a member of both NATO and the European Union, has been a steadfast supporter of Kyiv. It was one of the few European nations advocating for stringent EU sanctions against Russia and has made substantial contributions of military equipment to Ukraine. However, these dynamics might shift under Fico's leadership. Fico has consistently attributed the provocation of Russia's President Vladimir Putin in launching the invasion to "Ukrainian Nazis and fascists," perpetuating the debunked narrative employed by Putin to legitimize his actions.

Fico has urged the Slovak government to cease arms supply to Kyiv, pledging that if he assumes the position of prime minister, Slovakia will refrain from sending additional ammunition. Furthermore, he opposes Ukraine's accession into NATO.

During his time in opposition, Fico has formed a close alliance with Hungary's Prime Minister Victor Orban, particularly in their criticism of the European Union. If Fico emerges victorious, he and Orban may collaborate to create hurdles for Brussels. Additionally, if Poland's governing Law and Justice party secures a third term in the upcoming parliamentary elections, this group of EU disruptors could gain even more strength.