Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She shares her opinions weekly on CNN, contributes columns to The Washington Post, and is a senior columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. For more opinions, visit CNN's website.
In a well-planned display of strength, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing on Thursday for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both leaders appeared cheerful and friendly during the visit.
Meanwhile in Europe, the atmosphere could have hardly felt less jovial.
Frida Ghitis
Frida Ghitis
CNN
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times and gravely wounded in an assassination attempt on Wednesday. Despite the unclear details surrounding the shooting, Fico is now reportedly out of danger. The dramatic event has contributed to the sense of crisis in the region, emphasizing the need for urgent preparation as the situation remains tense.
In the 10 days following Putin's fifth term as Russia's president, his forces launched a surprise attack on northeastern Ukraine. This attack led them close to Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, and resulted in the capture of several Ukrainian villages.
Russia's lightning assault, as stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, has led to the cancellation of all his foreign travel. The goal of this assault is to pressure Ukraine into extending its defenses.
This tactical move by Moscow has bolstered its position on the field before the anticipated delivery of US weapons to Ukraine. This political move also comes at a crucial time, just months before the potential return of former President Donald Trump to power. Trump has made it clear that he may not continue the same level of support for Kyiv as President Joe Biden.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron expressed deep concern over the situation in Ukraine, referring to it as an "extremely dangerous moment." He accused Russia of effectively invading the country once again.
In a troubling development, European countries observed Putin's allies in Georgia supporting a controversial bill known as the "foreign agents" bill, which bears striking resemblance to a law used by the Kremlin to suppress pro-democracy movements. This move was seen as a victory for Moscow and a setback for the majority of Georgians who aspire for their country to join the democratic European Union.
Securing victories without going to war is more cost-effective. This is why Moscow is involved in Moldova, a former Soviet Republic seeking to join the European Union. There is increasing evidence of Russian efforts to interfere in elections across Europe and other regions, spreading disinformation and fueling political tensions.
It is noteworthy that the Slovak foreign ministry has accused Russia of meddling in the Slovakian elections that resulted in Fico, a supporter of Putin, coming to power. (Russia has denied these accusations.)
The country's interior minister expressed concerns about potential civil unrest during a media briefing outside the hospital where Fico is being treated. He emphasized that Slovakia is facing heightened political tensions that could lead to serious conflict. The minister also mentioned that the attack on Fico was driven by political motives, as the suspect reportedly disagreed with Fico's policies.
Security officers move Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in a car after the assassination attempt in Handlova, Slovakia, on Wednesday May 15.
Security officers move Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in a car after the assassination attempt in Handlova, Slovakia, on Wednesday May 15.
Radovan Stoklasa/Reuters
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began over two years ago has evolved into a significant challenge for Europe. It is no longer just about the survival of a former Soviet Republic. The entire region is realizing that this conflict will have long-lasting effects on Europe.
Recently in Moscow, Putin made a surprising decision to replace long-time Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrey Belousov, a former government official with expertise in military-industrial complex matters. This move suggests that Russia may be shifting towards becoming a full-fledged war economy.
Europe is now stepping up its preparations, not just to help Ukraine, but also to protect itself. Recently, Ukraine seemed to be winning against Russia, reclaiming territories that were invaded. But the situation has shifted drastically.
Frida Ghitis
Ukraine once seemed to be winning against Russia, reclaiming invaded territories. But everything changed when far-right Republicans in the US House of Representatives delayed military aid for six months. This allowed Russia to gain the upper hand.
The aid was approved last month, but unfortunately, it came too late. It will still take some time for the aid to reach its destination, and the military supplies will remain unbalanced.
Russia's militarized economy operates under a system where no complaints are tolerated, with Putin exercising full control. Apart from receiving weapons from Iran and North Korea, Russia is also accused by the US of receiving significant support from China, although Russia denies this and claims to be neutral. Moreover, Russia is producing three times more artillery shells compared to the supporters of Ukraine.
With Russian forces advancing and Putin portraying the conflict as a battle against the West, Europe is taking significant steps to brace itself for the potential outcome. Historians will not be able to criticize Europe for disregarding the threat, despite the overconfidence in peace and democracy that characterized the post-Cold War era.
Norway, a NATO member but not part of the EU, recently unveiled a bold 12-year plan to bolster its military capabilities. By 2036, the country's defense budget will see a twofold increase, and its army will expand to include three times the number of brigades.
In London, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has revealed a significant increase in defense spending to put the country in a state of readiness for war.
In the Netherlands, the defense budget is expected to double under the potential leadership of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is a top contender to become NATO's new chief. The budget is set to increase from $15.6 billion in 2022, when the war was initiated by Russia, to $31.2 billion by 2029.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping attend a concert marking the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China on Thursday May 16, 2024. The meeting comes as Russia's renewed assault in Ukraine makes significant gains.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping recently attended a concert celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between their countries on Thursday, May 16, 2024. This event took place amidst Russia's ongoing military actions in Ukraine, where they have been making substantial progress.
French President Emmanuel Macron has left open the possibility of deploying Western troops to Ukraine if Russia breaches the front line and President Zelensky requests assistance. This stance marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict.
Macron's remarks have been dismissed by European allies who are hesitant to risk angering Putin and sparking a direct conflict.
This fear has significantly limited Ukrainian soldiers' actions on the battlefield. The White House has prohibited Ukraine from using the weapons it supplies to attack targets within Russia. This policy, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War, is greatly hindering Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian offensives in the Kharkiv region. It effectively provides Russia with a safe zone to launch attacks on Ukraine from border areas.
It’s time to relax those restrictions. Ukraine should have the right to defend itself, even if it means taking action within Russian borders. Allowing Putin to control Ukraine comes at a high cost, as is becoming more and more evident.
While Germany opposes sending troops to Ukraine, there are reports that they are planning to bring back mandatory military service. A leaked document has shown that Berlin is thinking about requiring conscription for 18-year-old men and women. This shows that the current crisis is changing perspectives on national and regional security, with long-lasting effects regardless of the outcome of the war.
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In Finland, preparations for a potential war are particularly noteworthy. The country shares Europe's longest border with Russia and has previously lost territory to Russian invasions. Finland has not only strengthened its shelters for civilians and increased its supplies of weapons, ammunition, and fuel but also stockpiled grain to ensure the population's food security.
Finnish Lt. Gen. Mikko Heiskanen mentioned that Russia values strength and has been working on a long-term strategy to protect the nation.
While Putin and Xi may appear content at the moment, Europeans are determined to ensure that their current satisfaction is only short-lived.
Editor's P/S:
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving situation in Europe amidst Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine. It highlights the growing concerns and preparations within European nations as they face the threat of a wider conflict. The article emphasizes the need for a strong response to Russian actions, including the provision of adequate military aid to Ukraine and the bolstering of European defenses. It also explores the potential consequences of a prolonged conflict, such as the shift towards a full-fledged war economy in Russia and the long-lasting effects on European security.
The article raises important questions about the balance between diplomatic efforts and military action. While dialogue and diplomacy remain crucial, it argues that Ukraine should have the right to defend itself effectively, even if it means taking action within Russian borders. The article also discusses the need for European nations to move beyond complacency and overconfidence in peace and democracy. The current crisis has underscored the importance of preparedness and the need for a collective response to emerging threats to European security.
