The Potential Impact of RFK Jr on the 2024 Election

Few things in life are as certain as the victory of a Democrat or a Republican in a US presidential election. In this country, we rarely consider third parties or independents. However, it would be unwise to ignore the current polls, which indicate that Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling better than any other independent or third-party candidate in recent history. Alongside other non-major-party candidates, he has a genuine opportunity to influence the results of the upcoming 2024 election.

Looking at the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, it is evident that Kennedy has reached a remarkable 22% support among registered voters. This percentage caught my attention, prompting me to delve deeper into the world of polling.

It is worth noting that Ross Perot was the last independent presidential candidate to achieve over 20% in a poll, within a year of the election, which took place back in 1992. Ultimately, Perot concluded the election receiving 19% of the popular vote.

Perot stands out as an exception among independent or third-party candidates, who typically lose momentum as an election approaches. For example, during the 1980 campaign, John Anderson's popularity reached over 20% in polls, but dropped to only 7% in November. Similarly, in 1968, former Alabama Gov. George Wallace peaked at 21% in pre-election polling as a third-party candidate, but only garnered 14% of the votes. What is truly remarkable is that these three individuals are the only non-major-party candidates in polling history to exceed 20% within a year of the election. Kennedy now joins this distinguished group.

Moreover, those three prior candidates ended up getting above 5% (if not 10%) in the final outcome.

Democratic Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. addressing a gathering in New York City on July 25, 2023, as part of The World Values Network's Presidential Candidate Series focused on combatting antisemitism and supporting Israel.

RFK Jr. is garnering strong support as an independent candidate, but its sustainability remains uncertain.

The impressive figures that Kennedy has garnered in the crucial swing states are worth noting. Recent surveys from New York Times/Siena College reveal that Kennedy's popularity ranges from the high teens to an impressive 25% in the six battleground states where Biden emerged victorious over Trump in the 2020 elections. These states include Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan.

The Times/Siena polls caused a stir among Democrats and sparked excitement among Republicans earlier this week. Trump received a greater portion of the vote compared to Biden in five states among registered voters and in four states among likely voters. If the actual election results aligned with these polls, Trump would emerge as the victor.

When Kennedy entered the race as a viable candidate, Trump was only leading Biden in two states (Georgia and Nevada). Trump's 5-point advantage in Arizona and Pennsylvania turned into a tie. In Pennsylvania, Biden had a slight edge within the margin of error, while in Michigan, the two candidates were tied.

In other words, Trump's significant lead in the polls became uncertain and unpredictable due to Kennedy's presence. Both Biden (34%) and Trump (36%) had less than 40% support when looking at the combined results from the six states.

The significant portion of the vote garnered by an independent candidate should come as no surprise, considering the remarkably high unfavorability ratings of both Biden and Trump in the Times/Siena poll, as well as other polls. They shared the distinction with Hillary Clinton and Trump from 2016 as the two most disliked front-runners for their respective party nominations in polling history. Consequently, it is not unexpected that we are witnessing the emergence or potential emergence of additional independent and third-party candidates in the 2024 race.

Cornel West, a renowned independent, received 6% and 4% support in the recent surveys conducted by Quinnipiac and CNN/SSRS, respectively.

On Thursday, Jill Stein declared her candidacy for the Green Party nomination in 2024. In 2016, she obtained approximately 1% of the national vote, but notably garnered more votes than Trump's winning margins over Clinton in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023, Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) enters an elevator at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. following a Senate vote. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)

Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP

Manchins retirement may end up being his biggest tease yet

Furthermore, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin announced this Thursday that he will not seek reelection in the upcoming year. Previously, he had considered running as a third-party candidate but ultimately decided against it. It is worth mentioning that in a PRRI poll conducted over the summer, Manchin obtained a 10% approval rating as a No Labels candidate.

However, it is important to note that these candidates from non-major parties are not expected to emerge victorious. Nonetheless, this fact is not the primary focus of the discussion surrounding them.

These candidates are worth discussing as they have a higher chance of significantly attracting voters away from the major parties, which many Americans are disillusioned with. The eventual winner may secure victory without obtaining a majority of votes.

If political analysts fail to consider the fact that candidates like Kennedy are polling at over 20%, they could overlook a potential indication of the direction 2024 may be taking.