Age Gap in Democratic Party Polling Reveals Deep Divisions on Israel
President Biden faces a significant age divide within the Democratic Party regarding the Israel-Hamas War Notably, his approval rating on the conflict is lower among Democrats compared to his overall approval rating, further highlighting the divisive nature of the issue within his base
President Joe Biden faces a challenge within the Democratic base regarding the Israel-Hamas War. It is not only a matter of his lower approval rating among Democrats concerning the conflict compared to his overall approval rating, but also the division among his base based on age. Younger Democrats exhibit greater skepticism towards Israel in the context of this war and the larger geopolitical context. The disparity in opinions on this matter within the party based on age is one of the widest I have ever witnessed concerning any significant issue.
Refer to the latest survey by Quinnipiac University for an insight into the matter. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, Biden's approval rating for his management of the Israel-Hamas War stands at just 56%. In contrast, his overall job performance has garnered a 76% approval rating among Democratic voters.
A noteworthy segment of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (36%) express disapproval towards his handling of the war, with a tendency towards being younger in age.
The majority (69%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning individuals under the age of 35 disapprove of Biden's response to the war, while only 24% approve. In contrast, older Democrats have a different perspective, with a majority (77%) of those aged 65 and above approving of Biden's stance on this issue, and only a small minority (16%) disapproving.
The underlying reason for this division becomes evident upon closer examination of the data. According to most unbiased sources, Biden has shown greater support towards Israel than Palestinians during the war, which has not been well-received by younger Democrats.
Among Democrats, respondents aged 35 and below overwhelmingly express a stronger inclination to sympathize with Palestinians (74%) rather than Israelis (16%). In contrast, those aged 65 and above tend to be more inclined towards Israelis (45%) rather than Palestinians (25%). This significant generational disparity results in an almost equal division among all Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, with 39% sympathizing with Palestinians and 35% with Israelis.
This marks a significant shift compared to the start of the Israel-Hamas War, with Democrats being more inclined to sympathize with Israel by a margin of 48% to 22%. This poll was conducted shortly after a surprise terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7, resulting in the death of approximately 1,200 individuals. Since then, Israel has launched a military offensive in Gaza, resulting in over 10,000 Palestinian casualties according to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health.
However, the age breakdown we are currently witnessing delves beyond this specific conflict or the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians. It is ultimately about whether Democrats perceive Israel as a collaborative partner.
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (70%) believe that supporting Israel is in the national interest, with 87% of those aged 65 and older sharing this sentiment. However, Democrats below the age of 35 hold a contrasting perspective, as only 40% view supporting Israel as being in the national interest, while the majority (52%) disagree.
Not surprisingly, younger Democrats are against providing military aid to Israel in its conflict with Hamas. Only 21% agree with providing aid, while 77% are against it. On the other hand, older Democrats support it, with a margin of 53% to 32%.
Overall, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 49% are opposed to providing military aid, while 44% are in support.
Regarding more military aid for Israel, 53% of voters are in favor, while 39% are opposed. This split highlights the challenges Biden would face in attempting to politically distance himself from Israel. In fact, when Quinnipiac posed various questions about the conflict, the sentiments of the general electorate, particularly older voters, were more aligned with the Israeli perspective compared to the alternative option.
Voters overwhelmingly showed greater sympathy towards Israelis than Palestinians, with a 54% to 24% margin. Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike agreed that supporting Israel was in the national interest of America, as noted by a 73% to 19% margin. However, as Biden prepares for the 2024 election, he faces the challenge of gaining more support from younger voters. In the 2020 election, he secured a significant advantage of over 20 points among voters under the age of 35. Presently, his lead over former President Donald Trump in recent polls is only in the low single digits, suggesting a potentially close race if they were to face each other again.
It is uncertain if Biden's management of the war is responsible for his declining support among younger voters, but it is certainly not benefiting him.
Ultimately, Biden is facing a political dilemma. This can be added to the increasing number of challenges he is currently confronted with, as he becomes only the second incumbent president in the past 80 years to be lagging behind at this stage before the upcoming presidential election. The other person in this position was Trump, whom Biden defeated three years ago.
