Surprising Turn of Events: A NATO Country on the Verge of Choosing a Pro-Russian Leader

Slovakia is preparing to choose its fifth prime minister within a span of four years. The upcoming election is of great concern to the Western countries due to the leading position of Kremlin sympathizer Robert Fico's opposition party in the polls.

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, Slovakia has emerged as one of Kyiv's most steadfast allies. As neighboring countries, Slovakia was quick to provide air defenses to Ukraine and extended a warm welcome to tens of thousands of refugees.

However, everything could potentially change with the rise of Fico to the position of power. Fico, the ex-prime minister, openly expresses his support for the Kremlin and holds the belief that "Ukrainian Nazis and fascists" are responsible for instigating the invasion, echoing the unsubstantiated narrative employed by Putin to justify his actions.

Fico actively urges the Slovak government to halt the provision of weapons to Kyiv. Additionally, he firmly asserts that if he were to become prime minister, Slovakia would refrain from sending any further ammunition. Furthermore, Fico opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO.

According to Grigorij Meseňžnikov, a political analyst and the president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a think tank in Slovakia, Fico, like many others who sympathize with Russia, presents his support for Moscow as a "peace" initiative. He and his allies argue against sending weapons to Ukraine, suggesting that doing so would prolong the war. Their claim is that if weapons are not sent, the conflict would come to an end sooner, implying that their stance is not genuinely pro-peace but rather pro-Russian.

Fico had been the prime minister of Slovakia for over ten years, initially serving from 2006 to 2010 and then again from 2012 to 2018. However, he was compelled to step down in March 2018 due to widespread demonstrations following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová. Kuciak had exposed corruption within the country's ruling class, implicating individuals closely linked to Fico and his political party, SMER.

Chaos and infighting

Voters turned away from SMER in the subsequent election in 2020 and elected the center-right Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO) party.

Initially hailed as a refreshing change, OLaNO and its leader Igor Matovič ultimately let down a significant portion of their supporters. Matovič, a self-made millionaire, secured victory in the election by championing an aggressive anti-corruption agenda and vowing to eradicate corruption in Slovakia.

However, his credibility in anti-corruption matters was marred by a series of setbacks. Matovič was compelled to confess his plagiarism in his master's thesis and encountered significant internal conflicts within his government.

After only a little over a year, he was compelled to resign due to his independent choice to procure Covid-19 vaccines from Russia, which incited a rebellion within his coalition government.

Matovič exchanged roles with his finance minister, Eduard Heger, yet the disorder persisted. In the midst of the country grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, further internal conflicts and personal disputes ultimately resulted in the disintegration of the governing coalition in December. Heger carried on as the interim prime minister, but eventually resigned in May, being succeeded by a technocrat named Ludovit Odor.

Eduard Heger, pictured in Tallinn, Estonia, in November 2022, resigned as caretaker prime minister in May.

Ints Kalnins/Reuters/File

The chaos of recent years has given Fico a new chance.

"A year after the previous election, it appeared very likely that the party would cease to exist. However, (Fico) has successfully rehabilitated himself and is currently leading the pack," stated Mesežnikov. "SMER still enjoys strong support from their loyal base, which has a deep emotional connection to (Fico). Additionally, they have benefited from numerous government conflicts and external factors such as Covid, high inflation, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine."

Slovakia possesses a complex electoral system and a fragmented political landscape, with up to 10 political groups potentially meeting the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

That implies that, despite Ficos party emerging victorious in the election, he will probably require at least one coalition ally. He has not dismissed the possibility of collaborating with Republika, an extremist far-right party that alleges the Ukraine conflict stems from "NATOs expansion policy" and Kyivs "aggression towards the Russian minority in eastern Ukraine."

Disinformation and propaganda are winning

Public institutions' loss of credibility, due to government infighting and multiple corruption scandals, has provided fertile ground for propaganda and disinformation campaigns. Last month, Slovak police delivered a new development by charging the country's spy chief and other senior security officials with conspiracy to abuse power. Fico, who has connections to some of the individuals involved in the scandal, referred to the situation as a "police coup."

According to a survey conducted by GlobSec, a security think tank based in Bratislava, only 40% of Slovaks attributed responsibility for the war in Ukraine to Russia. This proportion was found to be the lowest among the eight central and eastern European and Baltic states that GlobSec examined. In the Czech Republic, which was formerly part of the same country as Slovakia, 71% of individuals held Russia accountable for the war.

Additionally, the research revealed that 50% of Slovaks view the United States, their long-term ally, as a potential security threat.

According to Dominika Hajdu, the policy director at GlobSec's Centre for Democracy and Resilience, Slovakia is exceptionally susceptible to Russian propaganda. She highlighted that certain parties currently dominating the polls promote similar narratives, such as the notion that the Western countries are attempting to involve Slovakia in a war and that individuals supporting Ukraine are inherently against Slovakia.

The pro-Russian propaganda is gaining traction due to the enduring support from a significant portion of the population. Presently, around 25% of individuals hold a positive opinion of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to her, this sentiment can be attributed to the long-standing pan-Slavic narrative, wherein Russia is viewed as the dominant ally safeguarding Slovaks from Hungarian influence and subsequently liberating Slovakia from Nazi occupation.

Slovakia's historical connection with Hungary as part of the Austro-Hungarian empire has fostered a complex relationship between the two countries. Being the largest minority in Slovakia, many Hungarians perceive the 1920 Trianon Treaty, which redrew national borders after World War 1, as an unfair treatment to their nation. Consequently, nationalist rhetoric has been observed from both sides of the border. Mesežnikov noted that Fico and his supporters are capitalizing on the increasing weariness and frustration among Slovak voters concerning the government's unwavering endorsement of Ukraine.

The government swiftly and decisively supported Ukraine, positioning itself favorably in history, according to him. Slovakia actively joined the EU in proposing sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with all available equipment. Following this, Slovakia sent air defenses shortly after the invasion, and subsequently delivered armored vehicles, helicopters, howitzers, and other equipment. Notably, Slovakia also welcomed over 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, a significant number for a country with a population of only 5.4 million.

However, Mesežnikov mentioned that a significant number of Slovaks disagreed with this approach and claimed that SMER and Republika hastily began pursuing their support.

"Alongside the peace argument, they contend that aiding Ukraine comes at the expense of Slovaks. They assert that it is excessively costly and that our concerns should solely revolve around ourselves," added Mesežnikov.

This presents a strong case for voters grappling with a cost-of-living crisis; however, Mesežnikov opines that it is not entirely grounded in facts, as a significant portion of the support is subsidized by the European Union.