CNN Poll: Haley narrows Trump's advantage to single digits in New Hampshire

In a recent CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has narrowed the gap between herself and former President Donald Trump in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire. Trump maintains a significant lead with 39% of likely Republican primary voters, while Haley closely follows with 32%. The other candidates in the poll, such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, trail far behind with 12%, 8%, 5%, and less than 1% respectively.

Haley's support has surged by 12 percentage points since the previous CNN/UNH poll in November, marking a continuing upward trend that began last summer. In contrast, her opponents, including Trump, have maintained stable or slightly declining numbers since the autumn. Haley's support has particularly increased among undeclared voters, up 18 points since November, and those who are ideologically moderate, with a 20-point gain. These gains follow a concerted effort by her campaign in the state, including a recent endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State's GOP primary is scheduled for January 23.

Haley's strong challenge to Trump in New Hampshire reflects the characteristics of the state's primary electorate, which consists of a larger proportion of moderate and less partisan voters compared to Iowa's caucuses. Recent polling shows Trump with over 50% support in Iowa and a majority in national polls for the Republican nomination.

According to a CNN/UNH poll, just over 40% of likely primary voters are undeclared and plan to vote in the GOP primary (45%), rather than being registered Republicans. Additionally, about one-third of voters consider themselves to be moderate (32%).

Trump holds a 40-point lead over Haley among conservatives, 37 points among registered Republicans, and 17 points among voters without college degrees, according to the poll. Among moderates, Haley leads Trump by 42 points, by 26 points among undeclared voters, and by 12 points among college graduates. Christie lands in second place among each of those three groups.

While 80% of Trump's supporters have definitely decided to back him, only 54% of Haley's current backers say the same.

Only 45% of supporters of other candidates have made a decision, leaving room for the race in New Hampshire to shift in the final two weeks of campaigning. Of those whose first choice is neither Haley nor Trump, 36% say that Haley would be their second choice, with 30% picking Trump. The majority of Christie's supporters lean toward Haley, with 65% saying they would support her if Christie dropped out. Only two Republican candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by likely GOP primary voters in the state: Trump (47% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Haley (39% favorable, 35% unfavorable), each garnering less than half of the likely electorate's positive outlook.

Ratings for each of the major candidates currently running have decreased since last September. However, DeSantis has experienced a particularly significant decline - only 29% now view him favorably, down from 44% last fall. Likely primary voters also have a negative opinion of Ramaswamy, Hutchinson, and Christie.

While only about 4 in 10 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire plan to vote for Trump, a 69% majority are opposed to the ruling in neighboring Maine that Trump should not appear on the ballot based on the 14th Amendment's "insurrectionist ban," which Trump's team is challenging. Just 23% support the decision by Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows that Trump is ineligible to run in Maine's GOP primary. Roughly three-quarters of likely Republican primary voters believe that partisan politics factored at least somewhat into the ruling, with 63% saying they factored "a lot" into the decision by Bellows. A minority of likely Republican primary voters (39%) say that Trump bears a great deal or a good amount of responsibility for "what happened at the U.S. Capitol" on January 6, 2021, when rioters entered the US Capitol during the certification of the 2020 election results.

Among the likely GOP electorate, there is a clear divide between supporters of Trump and those who do not support the former president. Nearly all of Trump's supporters in New Hampshire strongly oppose the ruling that prevented him from being on Maine's ballot (99%), and only 3% believe he holds a significant amount of responsibility for the events of January 6. The views are more varied among likely GOP primary voters who do not support Trump. While half of them oppose the ruling, 38% support it, and 12% are neutral or unsure. A majority (63%) believe that Trump bears at least some responsibility for the events of January 6.

There is also a split between Republican primary voters and the state's residents as a whole. New Hampshire residents are divided, with 49% supporting the ruling that Trump cannot run in Maine's GOP primary and 42% opposing it. However, a majority (54%) believe that partisan politics played a role in the decision. Most residents (63%) believe that Trump holds a great deal or a good amount of responsibility for the events of January 6.

President Joe Biden's approval rating in New Hampshire is currently at 42%, with 57% disapproving, according to a recent poll. Despite not filing to appear on New Hampshire's primary ballot, Biden still leads the Democratic field with 69% of likely Democratic primary voters intending to write in his name. This is compared to just 7% who plan to support Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and 6% who say they will vote for author Marianne Williamson.

Roughly two-thirds of potential Democratic primary voters have a favorable view of Biden (67%), while 16% have an unfavorable view. Phillips' favorability rating is at just 10% among potential voters, with 30% having an unfavorable view, and most remaining neutral (24%) or unsure (36%). Williamson has an 8% favorable rating, with half of potential voters viewing her unfavorably.

The CNN New Hampshire poll, conducted online from January 4-8 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, surveyed 1,864 New Hampshire adults from a panel with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Likely Republican and Democratic primary voters were identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. The results among 914 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, while the results among 694 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.