Nikki Haley's Battle Against Trump: Beyond Koch Cash

Introducing the revamped Never Trump movement.

Opponents from within the Republican party are gathering for a major fundraising effort aimed at thwarting his chances of securing a third consecutive nomination, just weeks before the GOP primary race begins.

Nikki Haley, heavily supported by the influential network funded by billionaire Charles Koch and top industrial and corporate donors, is seen as the candidate who can win the next November election and overcome the previous failures of other candidates and groups. Their hope is that the former South Carolina governor can succeed where previous candidates and influential groups have failed.

Presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a town hall at Vittoria Lodge on November 17, 2023 in Ankeny, Iowa.

Lily Smith/The Des Moines Register/USA Today Network

Koch network endorsement is latest sign of Haleys rise, but its far from a game ender

The endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action on Tuesday is the most recent sign that Haley is now the GOP establishment's preferred Trump alternative. Despite the advantage of the Koch network's financial support and political influence, the endorsement presents new challenges for Haley as she seeks to break the highest glass ceiling in politics as the latest woman to take on this historic role.

Will this late boost position Nikki Haley as one of the best-financed runners-up in US political history, or can she use it to mount a serious challenge to the ex-president and create a path to the GOP nomination that currently does not seem to exist?

At the very least, the decision of a premier conservative network to support Haley's campaign could help to create the only conditions under which Trump could potentially be beaten in a GOP primary that he is currently leading by a large margin. It might accelerate Haley's rise, eclipsing rivals like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and solidify support behind one genuine anti-Trump candidate who could challenge the ex-president in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, potentially making him vulnerable in later big-state contests.

President Joe Biden's campaign is preparing for a potential showdown with Trump in the upcoming year, but the endorsement from AFP Action has raised concerns about the possibility of facing a younger, female opponent who is currently outperforming the Democratic incumbent in hypothetical polling matchups. According to AFP Action senior adviser Emily Seidel, Haley is the best candidate to beat Trump in the primary and could help Republicans in the general election. Seidel also mentioned that Trump's "negative baggage" has hurt Republican candidates in the past, and suggested that Haley could help repair this situation.

AFP Action proudly announces our full endorsement of Nikki Haley. She presents America with the chance to move forward from the current political climate, secure the Republican primary, and emerge victorious against Joe Biden in the upcoming November election. The memo provides a compelling argument for Haley's abilities, and the prospect of a new, fresh leader is certain to resonate with voters tired of a rehash of the 2020 general election between septuagenarian Trump and octogenarian Biden.

Why the endorsement may mean less than it seems

Yet Haley faces a massive task.

In order to secure the GOP nomination, she would need to mitigate the influence of the pro-Trump base and garner support from the former president's followers. Haley aims to restore the GOP's traditional principles, such as fiscal responsibility and a strong international stance, which Trump opposed. However, she will likely face extensive criticism and resistance from Trump and his allies due to her challenge for the nomination. This was evident in a statement from a Trump spokesperson, who labeled her as "pro-China," "open borders," and "globalist," aligning with individuals who are against the MAGA movement.

The Republican party has solid reasons to consider selecting a different nominee, but their support base's emotional connection to Trump complicates the matter. Trump's unconventional approach, lack of refinement, and defiance of traditional party and government norms have endeared him to supporters who see him as the embodiment of their grievances. Additionally, his success in framing legal inquiries into his conduct as a plot to undermine future elections makes it challenging to change the direction of the GOP.

Republicans still want Trump

Despite her fluency on the trail and the debate stage, there is scant evidence that Haley has truly impressed the party with her political acumen or has generated unstoppable momentum for a political movement.

Republican strategist and pollster Sarah Longwell, who has distanced herself from Trump, expressed to CNN's Kasie Hunt that a win for Haley putting an end to Trump's campaign would be beneficial for the GOP, the country, and the world. However, she remains skeptical about the possibility of this outcome. "I believe the chances of that happening for her are very slim, even with the recent endorsement," Longwell stated on CNN International's "State of the Race." "After speaking with Republican voters consistently, I know they still support Trump," she added.

AFP Action could potentially increase Haley's chances of success by supporting her to remain in the race for a longer period of time. This approach would allow her to maintain hope that, should she be unable to defeat Trump, he may ultimately undermine himself.

Nevertheless, for Trump to suffer a significant decline in his popularity would require one of the most dramatic collapses in modern presidential history. No candidate in recent memory has held such commanding leads in the polls this close to the nominating contests. While some surveys suggest that voters may reconsider their support for him if he is convicted of a crime, the former president, who maintains his innocence in all legal cases, aims to secure a decisive victory that will essentially secure his nomination before his federal election interference trial. This trial is scheduled to begin on the eve of the nationwide Super Tuesday races in early March.

Although multiple polls suggest that Haley would be a stronger general election candidate than Trump, she faces the risk of being undermined by the belief of Republicans encountered on the campaign trail that Biden is an easy target for the ex-president.

The ultimate test of any presidential campaign lies in whether a candidate has a realistic path to securing the nomination through the state-by-state map. While it's possible to envision a scenario in which the former South Carolina governor surprises Trump in Iowa and goes on to win New Hampshire, questions remain about her ability to win in her own state, where support for Trump is strong. Additionally, could she emerge victorious in a prolonged showdown with the ex-president in the Deep South primaries and big state races, which are largely winner-take-all delegate contests? Regardless, the infusion of AFP Action cash may offer her the opportunity to make the attempt.

Rep. Liz Cheney participates in the last public meeting in the Canon House Office Building on Capitol Hill on December 19, 2022 in Washington, DC.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Exclusive: Liz Cheneys new book blasts GOP as enablers and collaborators of Trump, whom one member called Orange Jesus

The Koch-led network was not the only major player in the anti-Trump movement to make their stance against the former president known on Tuesday.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, often seen as a Republican outsider by many Trump supporters, issued a warning in her upcoming book, obtained exclusively by CNN, stating that America could not afford a president who would be "willing to terminate our Constitution." The Wyoming lawmaker, who played a key role in the House select committee that investigated the January 6, 2021 insurrection, promised to do everything in her power to prevent "the most dangerous man ever to inhabit the Oval Office." Despite losing her House GOP leadership position for opposing Trump, and later her seat and effectively her political career, there is no indication that Cheney can hinder his progress.

What Haley could gain from the endorsement

Haley possesses a crucial element necessary for any successful candidate as the first voting approaches - a growing political advancement. However, the issue lies in the lack of evidence indicating that she is actually drawing support away from Trump.

Michael Palmer, a senior adviser for AFP Action, countered that Haley had seen significant growth, rising from single digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire in August to landing in second place behind Trump in November. He presented data indicating that she is the most appealing candidate in the early voting states and has the most potential to advance her case, as she is less defined than both Trump and DeSantis. The decision by AFP Action was a major setback for the once-promising GOP figure, further perpetuating the notion that the Florida governor's campaign is faltering. These recent developments complicated his campaign's efforts to persuade major corporate donors that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump. The extensive resources of the Koch network, including data, finances, and a grassroots army, could alleviate concerns about the strength of Haley's ground game among some Republican strategists.

The endorsement of Haley's campaign could attract significant donors, despite the irony of support from a big money entity that channels funds from fossil fuel and large corporations. As the campaign progresses, theories about Haley's prospects will become irrelevant.

Elections offer the opportunity for voters to have the final say, regardless of poll predictions. Despite some candidates' lack of respect for democracy, such as Trump, the power ultimately lies with the voters. The first results will be revealed in just a few weeks.