Nikki Haley's Journey to Securing the Republican Nomination

As we approach the 2024 Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump maintains a lead in all major surveys. However, Nikki Haley appears to be gaining some momentum as a potential primary rival. Can Haley actually win the nomination? Historical precedent suggests she has a credible path to victory.

The former South Carolina governor is facing tough competition, as she is currently polling at only 10% nationally, with Trump leading at over 60% in many surveys. Additionally, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is polling at about 15%, placing him between Haley and Trump. Historically, no candidate has ever won the nomination after trailing by as much as 50 points in the national polls at this stage in the primary calendar.

The primary contests are not national events but rather sequential events where a state's voting behavior can be influenced by the outcomes in previously voting states. The early major contests for the Republicans include Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, where Trump leads in all of them, albeit by a smaller margin compared to his nationwide support.

According to a Des Moines Register poll in late October, Trump was leading with 43% in Iowa, while Haley and DeSantis each had 16%. While this is a significant lead, it is not impossible to overcome. In 1980, Republican George H.W. Bush and in 1988, Democrat Dick Gephardt were both down by at least 20 points before the caucuses, but ended up winning Iowa.

Haley doesn't necessarily have to win Iowa in order to secure the GOP nomination. What she really needs is a strong showing in the Hawkeye State, similar to what happened to Democrat Gary Hart in 1984 when he finished a close second to Walter Mondale, despite outperforming the pre-caucus polls.

The most accurate way to predict the results of the New Hampshire primary is by considering the pre-primary polling in the Granite State and how much candidates outperform their polling in Iowa. Hart's exceptional performance in Iowa played a significant role in his victory in the New Hampshire primary in 1984. He is one of only two candidates since 1980 to overcome a polling deficit of at least 20 points at this stage in the campaign and win the nation's first primary. (The other candidate being Republican Pat Buchanan in 1996.)

If Haley can build up more momentum in the next month, she could potentially achieve what Hart did. It's important to note that about three-quarters of non-Trump supporters in Iowa were undecided, according to the Des Moines Register survey, so there is a lot of potential for Haley to make an impact. Replicating Hart's success in New Hampshire won't be simple, but it is achievable.

In Granite State polling, Trump maintains his lead over Haley, although our recent CNN survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that his lead was smaller than in other states. Trump has 42% support compared to Haley's 20%. Furthermore, only 29% of non-Trump supporters are committed to their vote in New Hampshire, including 25% of Chris Christie supporters. Christie received 14% support in our CNN poll when primary voters were asked for their first choice.

When delving into the preferences of former New Jersey governors, it is evident that they overwhelmingly prefer Haley as their second choice (53%) over Trump (11%). With Christie polling at below 5% nationally and in Iowa, and at risk of not qualifying for the upcoming GOP debate, it is uncertain how his current supporters will lean come voting time.

It is worth noting that none of the candidates who overcame polling deficits of at least 20 points in the first two contests ultimately won the nomination.

Hart nearly caught up in 1984, finishing just a few points behind Mondale in the cumulative national primary vote. Despite trailing by about 40 points nationally at this stage in the campaign, he had to surpass several other candidates including Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, and George McGovern. Haley, on the other hand, has an additional advantage; the third GOP contest next year is in South Carolina, where she served as governor.

In a November survey by Winthrop University, Trump leads Haley in South Carolina with 48% compared to her 19%. It's worth noting that Trump's very favorable rating among Republicans (52%) is only slightly ahead of Haley's (38%), which is significant as this often correlates with primary support.

It's clear that Haley could narrow the gap in her home state, but the question remains whether she can maintain this momentum in other states. If she can, then the outcome becomes more unpredictable.

Haley has a challenging and lengthy journey ahead of her, with many comebacks required. The fact that no one has successfully completed this pathway before is a clear indication of its difficulty.