New Poll Shows Trump Edging Out Biden in Hypothetical Rematch: CNN Survey

One year ahead of Election Day 2024, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS indicates that former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading President Joe Biden among registered voters, with a margin of 49% to 45% in a hypothetical rematch. Biden's prospects for reelection are undermined by negative approval ratings, a perception of the United States performing poorly, waning support from crucial voter groups, and a general sentiment that he is not up to the task.

In this potential rematch between Biden and Trump, both candidates have limited potential for growth. A total of 51% of voters nationwide express absolute unwillingness to vote for Biden, while only 4% currently do not support him but may consider it. On the other hand, 48% state that there is no chance they would vote for Trump, with a mere 2% stating they do not currently back him but are open to the possibility.

Bidens' support in the poll has significantly weakened among various groups that he previously had a strong advantage with, which were crucial to his victory in the 2020 election. Among voters under the age of 35, Trump now has the support of 48% while Biden has 47%. Political independents favor Trump with 45% compared to Biden's 41%. Black voters still mostly support Biden with 73% while Trump has 23%, whereas Latino voters are divided with 50% supporting Biden and 46% supporting Trump. Among voters of color in general, women favor Biden with 63% compared to Trump's 31%, while men are split almost evenly with 49% supporting Trump and 46% supporting Biden.

All of these percentages indicate a significant decrease in support for Biden compared to the 2020 exit polls. Although the actual voter turnout may differ from registered voters, and there is still a full year before the election for voters' perspectives to change, the differences between then and now are quite stark. In the 2020 election, Biden won voters under the age of 35 by a 21-point margin nationally, independents by 13 points, Black voters by an impressive 75 points, and Latino voters by 33 points. Among voters of color, he had a substantial advantage with both women and men: women by 53 points and men by 34.

Only 25% of Americans believe that Biden has the necessary stamina and sharpness to effectively fulfill his role as president, compared to the 53% who hold that belief about Trump. Among Democrats, only 51% have confidence in Biden's sharpness and stamina, while a much higher percentage of Republicans (90%) feel the same way about Trump.

In terms of approval ratings, Biden's rating of 39% approval and 61% disapproval is notably lower than previous modern presidents at this stage in their reelection campaigns. This rating is similar to Trump's in late October 2019 when he had a 41% approval rating. However, it is worth mentioning that Jimmy Carter had a significantly lower approval rating than Biden at this point in his presidency. One year before the 1980 Election Day, Carter had an approval rating of just 32% and ultimately lost reelection.

Furthermore, Biden's job performance faces stronger opposition rather than enthusiastic support. 42% of Americans strongly disapprove of his performance, while only 14% strongly approve. Vice President Kamala Harris shares the same approval rating as Biden, with 39% approval and 61% disapproval.

According to a recent poll, a significant 72% of Americans believe that the current state of the country is not going well. This sentiment has been consistently held throughout President Biden's time in office. In March 2021, at most, only 60% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction.

Support for former President Trump is strong among those who disapprove of Biden's performance and those who believe things are going badly in the country. Among disapprovers, Trump has the support of 79% compared to Biden's 12%. Similarly, among those who feel things are going badly, 65% favor Trump while only 27% favor Biden.

Interestingly, even those who only somewhat disapprove of Biden's performance played a role in the successful performance of Democratic candidates in last year's midterms. Exit polls revealed that in their respective US House districts, they chose Democratic candidates 49% of the time compared to 45% for Republicans, despite their reservations about Biden.

In the new poll, Biden does fare slightly better among those who weakly disapprove of his performance compared to strong disapprovers. However, he still falls behind Trump with these voters, with Trump receiving the support of 46% and Biden receiving 40%.

Hypothetically, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley currently holds a lead over Biden with 49% of registered voters supporting her compared to Biden's 43%. Furthermore, in a hypothetical matchup with Trump as the GOP nominee, Biden is behind with 35% of the support compared to Trump's 41%. This matchup includes two declared independent candidates, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 16% support and Cornel West receiving 4% support. However, it is worth noting that candidates outside of the two main parties rarely receive such levels of support in actual elections.

In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, there is no clear leader. DeSantis receives 48% support while Biden receives 46% support.

Looking at primary matchups for both parties, it seems that a Biden vs. Trump election is the most likely scenario at this time. Among Republican-aligned voters, Trump holds a comfortable lead with 61% support, followed by DeSantis with 17% and Haley with 10%. No other candidate among Republicans receives double-digit support.

On the Democratic side, Biden is ahead of his newest challenger, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, by a significant margin of 60 points. Biden has the support of 71% of Democratic-aligned voters, while Phillips receives 11% support and author Marianne Williamson receives 8% support.

Trump holds a slight edge over Biden, despite the fact that the general public has a highly unfavorable opinion of the former president. Surprisingly, the poll indicates that Biden's image is even worse, and those individuals who have negative views of both candidates tend to lean towards Trump. When Americans were asked whether Biden or Trump contributes more to resolving the nation's problems, 61% believe Biden is more of a problem, while 57% believe the same about Trump. Independents are slightly more inclined to view Biden as problematic, with 67% compared to 63% for Trump.

Both Biden and Trump have extremely low favorability ratings: Biden is viewed favorably by only 36% of people, while 59% have an unfavorable view of him. Similarly, Trump is viewed favorably by just 38% of people, with 56% having an unfavorable view of him.

Of the registered voters who believe that both Biden and Trump contribute to the problem, 46% would vote for Trump, 34% would vote for Biden, and 17% would choose someone else. Likewise, among registered voters who have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, 44% would vote for Trump, 35% would vote for Biden, and 17% would choose someone else.

According to the poll, the public views Biden's greatest weaknesses as Trump's biggest strengths, such as stamina and sharpness to serve (25% Biden vs. 53% Trump) and effectiveness as a world leader (36% Biden vs. 48% Trump). Similarly, Biden's strengths seem to be Trump's weaknesses, with 51% saying Biden respects the rule of law compared to only 35% for Trump, and 42% considering Biden honest and trustworthy while only 33% feel the same about Trump. However, both candidates fall short when it comes to being someone Americans would be proud to have as president, with only 33% feeling that way about Biden and 38% for Trump.

Currently, Republican-aligned voters appear to be more motivated to vote and have stronger feelings about Biden compared to Democratic-aligned voters. 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the next presidential election, whereas only 61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters feel the same. Furthermore, Republicans are much more likely to strongly disapprove of Biden's job performance (82%) compared to Democrats who strongly approve (30%).

Voters are evenly split on their satisfaction with the candidates they will choose from in the upcoming year, with 50% on each side. Republicans express a higher level of satisfaction compared to Democrats (67% satisfied vs. 44% among Democrats), while independents show a low level of satisfaction (only 33% satisfied with their options). Among Democratic-aligned voters, younger individuals display less satisfaction than older ones (34% satisfied among those under 45, compared to 46% among those 45 and older). However, there is no similar age gap among Republican-aligned voters, as both those under 45 (65%) and those 45 and older (64%) are satisfied.

With all these indications of diminished enthusiasm, the Biden campaign argues that they have a year to highlight the president's achievements and energize their base. However, the poll suggests that they face a significant disadvantage from the beginning.

The economy is a crucial issue heading into next year's election, as indicated by 66% of registered voters who consider it extremely important to their vote. Other important concerns include election integrity and voting rights (57%), gun policy (52%), crime (52%), and immigration (50%). However, fewer voters prioritize foreign policy (43%), abortion (42%), climate change (31%), or policies towards transgender people (17%).

As in previous election cycles, there are notable differences between the issues deemed important by Democratic and Republican voters. Republicans place greater emphasis on the economy (81% extremely important among Republican-aligned voters compared to 50% among Democratic-aligned voters), immigration (73% vs. 30%), crime (66% vs. 39%), and foreign policy (55% vs. 33%). Conversely, Democrats show greater concern for abortion (51% vs. 33%), climate change (51% vs. 11%), and gun policy (59% to 47%). Policies towards transgender people hold less importance to voters overall, although more Democratic-aligned voters consider it important (24%) compared to Republicans (9%).

The importance of voting rights and election integrity is the only issue where both sides agree in the poll. 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters consider it extremely important, while 58% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters share the same opinion. A majority of Americans, 54%, believe that American democracy is being threatened. This belief is more common among Republicans (64%) than Democrats (50%), as seen in previous CNN polls.

In a broader sense, 72% of Americans believe that there are significant differences between the two major political parties, while 28% believe that they are essentially the same. Independents are less likely to see critical differences, with 54% expressing this viewpoint, compared to 45% who think the parties are similar. Republicans are slightly more inclined than Democrats to believe in important differences (84% vs. 79%). Among voters who perceive "important differences," their preferences in the general election between Biden and Trump are almost evenly split, with 49% favoring Trump and 47% favoring Biden. On the other hand, among those who view the parties as "pretty much the same," the majority leans towards Trump (50% Trump to 39% Biden, 8% other).

The results of the generic congressional ballot show a close race with no clear frontrunner: 48% would vote for the Republican candidate in their district while 47% lean towards the Democrat. Notably, voters under 35 tend to favor Democrats, with 56% supporting the Democrat and 37% supporting the Republican.

A larger percentage of Americans view Republican leaders in Congress as part of the problem in addressing the country's top issues compared to Democratic leaders (63% for GOP leaders vs. 58% for Democrats). In addition, the newly appointed House Speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson, is relatively unknown with 52% of people either having never heard of him or having no opinion. Among those who do have an opinion, his favorability rating is negative, with 20% viewing him favorably and 27% unfavorably.

The SSRS conducted the CNN poll from October 27 to November 2. They gathered responses from a random national sample of 1,514 adults, using a probability-based panel. The surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, while for the 1,271 registered voters surveyed, the error margin is +/- 3.3 points. Ariel Edwards-Levy from CNN contributed to this story.