Opinion: The Good and Bad News for Nikki Haley
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley enters the GOP's fourth presidential debate as the standout performer from previous matchups, yet she must overcome significant hurdles Discover more in our free weekly newsletter
The Republican presidential debates have seen two clear winners so far - one who will be taking center stage on Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama for the fourth GOP matchup, and another who will not be there at all.
Former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has surged in the competition to become the final candidate standing next to former President Donald Trump in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. She has achieved this by delivering three strong debate performances. The former formidable Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was previously seen as a top contender, is now neck-and-neck with Haley in the race for second place. This marks a stark contrast from a year ago when DeSantis was considered the great hope of the Republican establishment and was closing in on Trump in polling.
Former U.S. Ambassador and S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley addresses a crowd for her 2024 presidential run at USCB's Sand Shark Recreation Center on Monday, Nov. 27, 2023 in Bluffton.
The Island Packet/Tribune News Service/Getty Images
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Haley's unfortunate news is that she is still trailing the former president by about 50 points, who has positioned himself as the standout victor of the first three Republican debates by stepping back and allowing others to take the stage.
By choosing to skip the debates, Trump took a risk by believing that without his dominating presence, his rivals would focus their attacks on each other. And, so far, he has been proven right.
Despite his frequent absences, Trump has managed to increase his support among Republicans since the first candidate debate on August 27, even with four criminal indictments looming over him. He continues to lead in the polls by a significant margin. The upcoming debate at the University of Alabama is set to take place less than six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and DeSantis is hoping for a strong second-place showing to compete with Trump. Haley is also gaining ground in some polls.
A strong finish for Haley in Iowa on January 15th would likely halt DeSantis' campaign and provide her with momentum going into the New Hampshire primary, where she currently holds second place, although still trailing Trump by over 20 points. A surprise victory there would lead to a face-off with Trump a month later in her home state of South Carolina, where she enjoys popularity but he is highly esteemed among the Republican base.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a Commit to Caucus rally, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023, in Ankeny, Iowa. (AP Photo/Matthew Putney)
Matthew Putney/AP
The reason behind Trump's attacks on Obamacare is deeply unsettling. Haleys late surge has resulted in a flood of money and campaign resources from wealthy donors seeking an alternative to Trump. Some of these donors had previously supported DeSantis, while others had backed Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who withdrew from the race on November 12th.
Haley received a significant endorsement from billionaire Charles Koch last week, solidifying her position in Republican politics. As a sign of her progress, her opponents are now starting to attack her, indicating that she is gaining more prominence in the political arena. With Trump absent, Haley is expected to face more aggressive treatment from her rivals during Wednesday night's event.
Like Haley, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, the most outspoken critic of Trump in the Republican field, is also looking to make a breakthrough in New Hampshire. Christie may try to halt Haley's momentum in the debate by possibly challenging her for not being critical enough of Trump.
DeSantis, who has already begun running ads criticizing Haley's work as governor to attract Chinese investments, is likely to increase his attacks. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who has been Haley's rival and adversary in the first three debates, will undoubtedly continue to criticize her for, among other things, her aggressive stances on national security.
But Haley has already proven to be a pugnacious debater herself. She is unlikely to take this incoming without firing off some sharp attacks of her own.
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To the benefit of the audience, there will be more time for debate on Wednesday, as the number of candidates participating in this debate has once again decreased. Several of the eight who qualified for the first debate have dropped out of the race, including Trump's former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
The decreasing number of candidates was the intention of Republican Party chair Ronna McDaniel, who established a series of increasing minimum polling and fundraising requirements for each of the first four debates to eliminate uncompetitive candidates. McDaniel aimed to avoid the situation in 2016 when candidates had to participate in separate varsity and junior varsity debates to accommodate everyone.
As the clock continues to tick and Trump's substantial lead remains consistent or increases, Wednesday's debate has a somewhat anti-climactic atmosphere, akin to a silver medal round.
The primary focus will once again be on Trump's absence, as he chooses to let his struggling primary opponents attack each other while he takes aimed shots at them, President Joe Biden, and a long list of perceived political adversaries from a distance.
