Thrilling Showdowns Await: Manchester United Set to Edge Out Burnley & High-Scoring North London Derby

After tipping up the 0-0 between Chelsea and Bournemouth and finding Gustavo Hamer to score first at 22/1 last week, Jones Knows is back in the predictions chair.

Crystal Palace vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If Marc Guehi remains unavailable, I recommend avoiding betting on Crystal Palace as the odds-on favorites. The partnership between Guehi and Joachim Anderson is crucial for their performance. The statistics support this claim as well. During the 21/22 season, in the 16 games where either Guehi or Anderson was absent, Palace has only managed to win twice. More concerning is the fact that they conceded 29 goals in those matches, averaging almost two goals per 90 minutes.

This presents an opportunity to consider a Fulham goals angle, particularly focusing on central areas. My attention is drawn to the 9/1 odds for Carlos Vinicius to score the opening goal. In the recent victory against Luton, Vinicius scored just three minutes after coming on as a substitute. Impressively, he has found the net in four out of his last eight attempts in his previous six Premier League appearances.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

He may not possess the same level of talent as Aleksander Mitrovic, but when given a chance, he consistently impresses Marco Silva and has a knack for finishing off scoring opportunities. This makes him a viable option to consider when the odds and circumstances align. Additionally, he has the ability to contribute goals in an away victory.

Luton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm

When betting with Sky Bet, you can get odds of 11/4 on the most creative player in the Premier League assisting a goal against arguably the worst team in the league. It's a great opportunity that shouldn't be missed.

Pedro Neto has been outstanding this season, having created the highest number of chances (17), made the most crosses (43), and jointly provided the most assists (4). It's remarkable how he has overcome a series of injuries to reach his peak performance. One of his notable assists this season was the cross he made for Hee-Chan Hwang in Wolves' 3-1 defeat against Liverpool, where he clearly stood out as their brightest player.

Luton have appeared susceptible on that side where Neto operates, as they have allowed goals from crosses originating on the left wing against Brighton, West Ham, and Fulham. The prowess of Neto could be the deciding factor.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

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Nottingham Forest posted the fewest goals scored (11) away from home last season, so, making a case for both teams to score for a trip to, arguably, the greatest team on the planet may raise a few eyebrows. But stay with me, the price of 6/5 with Sky Bet is a play to consider.

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Forest is a team on the rise, with Steve Cooper leading the charge towards a more attacking style of play. Their efforts have been fruitful, as demonstrated by their remarkable achievement of scoring in each of their last 12 Premier League games. Remarkably, this impressive run includes matches against formidable opponents such as Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as demanding away fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester United.

On the other hand, Manchester City has displayed some susceptibility when facing teams who possess speed and strength on the counterattack. With this in mind, Forest will adopt a similar approach, aiming to exploit City's defensive weaknesses. Considering these factors, it is highly likely that Forest will find the back of the net in a victorious home match.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Brentford vs Everton, Saturday Night Football, 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Brentford vs Everton, live on We

When faced with a challenging fixture, it is advisable to opt for a draw, which seems like the safest route to explore in this case. Personally, I am more optimistic about Everton under Sean Dyche now that they have a focal point in Beto to target. However, their performance against Arsenal was disappointing, displaying a lack of direction and creativity. Additionally, it takes some time for Dyche's teams to find their stride, as evidenced by his failure to win a Premier League game in August or September since 2019, losing 10 out of his last 14 attempts (D4 L10).

Brentford tends to be consistently overlooked by the market, particularly when playing at home. Therefore, the odds of 4/5 offered by Sky Bet for a home victory will attract many bettors. Nevertheless, Everton managed to secure four points against them in the previous season, indicating a certain unease about Thomas Frank's team when they are expected to win.

This scoreline is likely to repeat itself, just like the 1-1 result from last season. Interestingly, 22% of Brentford's matches in all competitions since last season have ended with that same scoreline. Considering this, it makes sense to bet on the odds of 6/1 with Sky Bet for that outcome.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Making smart betting decisions requires blocking out irrelevant information.

Burnley vs Manchester United, Saturday 8pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Manchester United's recent form has been poor, losing their last three matches in all competitions and conceding a total of 10 goals. However, it is important to consider the quality of the teams they were up against during these defeats.

Losing to Arsenal, Brighton, and Bayern Munich can happen to any team. The crucial factor in those defeats is that their performance level is similar to last season.

Their chances of winning in this match are difficult to argue against at 8/11 with Sky Bet, especially when considering their impressive away record against lower-ranked teams. Last season, they earned 25 points out of 30 available and only conceded five goals in those 10 matches. The only loss occurred against West Ham, a team that eventually won a European trophy, making their ranking as a lower-ranked team somewhat misleading. Erik ten Hag, the manager, has the ability to win even in challenging circumstances, and his team will be prepared to do so in this match.

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Erik ten Hag must secure a significant outcome against Burnley this Saturday. Last season, nine out of ten matches played away against the bottom 10 teams resulted in under 2.5 goals. The average goal count in those matches was just 1.6 per 90 minutes. Consequently, the odds of under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet seem exceptionally attractive. Furthermore, if we factor in a victory for United, the offered odds stand at 4/1. This wager would have been successful in 50% of United's matches against the bottom 10 teams in the previous season. The 4/1 odds, which hinge on United winning either 1-0 or 2-0, present a tremendous value opportunity.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Man Utd to win & under 2.5 goals (4/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Arsenal vs Tottenham, Super Sunday, 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Arsenal vs Spurs, live on We

Doctor, I'm in need of a thrilling soccer experience that will pump my veins with excitement. This match is bound to be exhilarating, with numerous goals, intense moments, passion, and captivating storyline.

When it comes to potential betting opportunities, I am inclined towards focusing on the attacking prowess of the Spurs. In particular, James Maddison's performance has caught my attention, especially in relation to his shots on target. He is truly thriving as the center of Ange Postecoglou's attention. In fact, this season he has recorded more shots on target and created more scoring opportunities per 90 minutes than even Harry Kane did last season. Granted, we must consider the limited sample size, but Maddison's potential cannot be ignored.

SCORE PREDICTION: 4-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: James Maddison to have two or more shots on target (7/2 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

In terms of shots on target, his record of 11 is surpassed only by Erling Haaland (16). Notably, the talented playmaker has managed to land at least one shot on target in every Premier League match while representing Tottenham Hotspur. With these statistics in mind, the odds of 4/6 offered by Sky Bet for him to achieve another shot on target appear highly appealing. Additionally, I would strongly encourage considering the odds of 7/2 for him to record two or more shots on target.

Brighton vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm

Yet, Brighton stands out as an exceptional football club with an exceptional young manager at the helm, making them a force to be reckoned with in the world of football. Nevertheless, the betting markets are well aware of this fact, which is why Brighton enters Premier League home games as favorites, with odds as low as 1/3, as offered by Sky Bet.

Apologies for the trumpet and all, but I'm currently sitting rather comfortably at odds of 8/1 for Brighton to secure a top-four finish. However, I am skeptical about their ability to consistently deliver impressive performances, particularly with the additional workload of the Europa League.

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Jones Knows is on Brighton at 8/1 for a top-four finish but sees problems for them on Sunday

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

Roberto De Zerbi's team experienced a few instances last season where they failed to capitalize on a strong performance. For example, they suffered a 3-1 defeat against Nottingham Forest right after their impressive display against Manchester United in the FA Cup semi-final, which went into penalties. Additionally, they faced a rather absurd 5-1 home loss to Everton following a 1-0 victory over United in the Premier League. However, this season, De Zerbi has a larger squad at his disposal and has proven to be skilled in selecting the best team. Despite this, considering their first-ever European night, I am inclined to bet against them. Bournemouth is available on the double chance at 9/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm

Chelsea has not been successful in any of their previous 22 Premier League matches against teams ranked in the top 10. In fact, they lost 12 of those matches. Given their current lack of confidence and the ongoing struggles of their attacking players to improve their expected goals deficiency, it seems wise to avoid betting on Chelsea at odds of 17/20 with Sky Bet. Instead, it would be more reasonable to have faith in Aston Villa to achieve a positive outcome.

Instead of focusing solely on the outright markets, my betting instincts are inclined towards the Chelsea offside lines. Although I have already mentioned it numerous times, if there is still an advantage to be gained, there is no reason to hesitate in backing it repeatedly. The opposition's offside instances against Aston Villa continue to present a viable avenue for attack.

In their previous eight away games, Villa managed to force the opposition into committing 42 offside violations, with seven of those matches witnessing the opposition accumulating at least three offside penalties due to Villa's aggressive high line. This averages out to 5.25 offsides per match. Sky Bet offers odds of 7/2 for Chelsea to be caught offside five or more times in this game, while those who prefer shorter odds can bet on Raheem Sterling, an eager player who frequently makes runs behind the defense, to be caught offside one or more times at 10/11.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

David Moyes' record away from Everton against the top Premier League clubs has been disappointing, failing to secure a single victory in 39 league matches against Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea, or Liverpool. Of those encounters, only six have resulted in draws.

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West Ham boss David Moyes is winless away at the 'big six' since leaving Everton

That's a total of 33 defeats, however, 17 of those were by a slim one-goal margin. This means that when Moyes takes a team to face a 'big six' rival, there is a 43 percent chance that his team will lose by just one goal, based on a significant number of games. This outcome is to be expected, as Moyes' style often leads to low-scoring matches where it can be difficult for the opposing team to break through. We have already witnessed this in the current season, with Moyes frustrating teams like Brighton, Chelsea, and Manchester City, while also posing a significant threat on the counter-attack.

To potentially profit from this, it could be a strategic move to place bets on both a Liverpool 1-0 and 2-1 victory with Sky Bet at odds of 9/1 and 7/1, respectively.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Sheffield United vs Newcastle, Super Sunday, 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Sheffield United vs Newcastle, live on We

Newcastle is considered uncertain favorites at odds of 4/9 with Sky Bet due to their lack of confidence and fluidity in the attacking third. This is particularly concerning as they are facing an opponent that displays stability and cohesion.

In their last five matches, Eddie Howe's team has only managed a non-penalty expected goals tally of 0.88 per game. This is a significant drop from their average of 1.89 per 90 minutes across last season's 38 games. Although this figure is likely to improve as they face slightly less challenging opponents, I would like to see concrete evidence of their improvement before fully placing my trust in them.

With the anticipated challenge of breaking down the Blades being tougher than expected, it might be profitable to support Newcastle's corner count. Last season, they were the reigning champions in the Premier League, winning a total of 270 corners - a remarkable 32 more than any other team. This impressive tally is a result of their style of play, which often leads to numerous scenarios where corners can be won along the channels. This strategic approach, favored by Howe, creates overloads and increases the chances of winning corners. Last season, they averaged 7.1 corners per match, making it surprising to find odds of Evens for them to win seven or more corners in a game where they are expected to dominate the territory.

On the other hand, Sheffield United is likely to adopt a defensive and frustrating strategy, with a focus on absorbing pressure. This season, they have conceded an average of 8.8 corners per match, including 12 against Manchester City and a staggering 15 against Tottenham. If you believe that similar numbers will occur again, you can take advantage of odds of 14/1 with Sky Bet on Newcastle winning 12 or more corners. This bet would have been successful in Newcastle's away matches against Palace, Everton, and Wolves last season. However, for those who prefer a safer approach, it would be wise to aim for the seven or more line at Evens.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Newcastle to win seven or more corners (Evens with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

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