Analysis: Nikki Haley's Role in the Republican Nomination Race
Exploring how Nikki Haley's actions may be inadvertently boosting Donald Trump's chances in the Republican nomination race, as discussed by Daniel McCarthy.
Daniel McCarthy, the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review and a columnist for The Spectator World and Creators Syndicate, shares his own views in this commentary. Check out more opinions at CNN.
Dragging out the race for the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley is only making Donald Trump stronger if practice makes perfect.
The former US ambassador to the United Nations is facing challenges in the race to become the nominee, as she has lost by wide margins in almost every primary so far. Despite this, she continues to stay in the race and is included on the ballot for Super Tuesday's 15 GOP primaries and caucuses.
Daniel McCarthy
Daniel McCarthy
Courtesy Daniel McCarthy
Trump is bothered by Haley's ability to gather support in early primaries and even win in Washington, DC. He probably wishes she would drop out after he wins on Tuesday. His campaign expects to secure enough delegates for the nomination by March 12. However, Haley's persistence in challenging him is actually helping him prepare for the showdown with President Joe Biden in the fall.
Biden's Democratic opponents, like US Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, are not posing much of a challenge. The recent Michigan primary showed how insignificant Phillips and Williamson are, as they each received less than 3% of the vote. In comparison, the "uncommitted" option on the ballot received over 13%.
There is dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party towards Biden, but currently, no candidate is able to effectively challenge him or push him to improve.
On the other hand, Haley has strong financial support and is well-positioned to take advantage of the dissatisfaction with Trump, not only within the GOP but also among independent or Democrat-leaning voters who may be swayed to join the Republican competition. While she may not emerge as the winner, she has the potential to give Trump a tough challenge.
For his campaign, a prolonged primary season means more experience with mobilizing supporters, maximizing turnout not just to win but also to win as decisively as possible.
Former President Donald Trump stands on stage as he hosts a South Carolina Republican presidential primary election night party in Columbia, South Carolina, on Saturday.
Former President Donald Trump stands on stage as he hosts a South Carolina Republican presidential primary election night party in Columbia, South Carolina, on Saturday.
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
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In 2016, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas challenged Trump, staying in the race until May. They were strong contenders, but like Haley, they had no real chance after Trump's early wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The Republican race that year was longer and messier compared to the Democratic contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. There were concerns then, as now, about how the GOP division would impact the party's chances in November. However, Trump emerged victorious over Clinton.
The hard-fought primaries were a great learning opportunity for campaigns as they helped reveal the candidate's weaknesses, giving them a chance to address and improve upon them before the actual election.
Looking at Trump's challenge with Republican voters in November, we can see from Haley's performance data. For instance, in New Hampshire, exit polls indicated that Trump struggled to win over married voters, who comprised 65% of those surveyed. He received 50% of their votes compared to Haley's 47%, while he had a stronger lead among unmarried voters with 63% to 35%.
It's important for Trump's campaign to be aware that Republicans who accept Biden as the winner of the 2020 election are less likely to support him. In South Carolina, 36% of Republican primary voters fell into this category, with Trump winning only 18% of them. In New Hampshire, the percentage was even higher at 46%, with Trump securing 22% of their votes.
Voters fill out their ballots for the Michigan primary election in Dearborn, Michigan, on Tuesday, February 27.
Voters fill out their ballots for the Michigan primary election in Dearborn, Michigan, on Tuesday, February 27.
Paul Sancya/AP
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Bad news can be just as helpful as good news when it comes to developing a strategy. In South Carolina, 81% of Haley voters in exit polls said they were voting against Trump, not for Haley. To win over these voters in the general election, the campaign needs to shift focus away from Trump and towards Biden, highlighting similarities between Biden and what Haley voters dislike about Trump.
Exit polls in a competitive primary also show Trump which segments of the party support him the most. Mobilizing these enthusiastic voters will be crucial in November. In 2020, Biden won four battleground states by a narrow margin of 2% or less, while Trump narrowly won North Carolina by just over a point. The margins in battleground states in 2016 were similarly close. Turning out the base is essential in politics, but it requires up-to-date information like that provided by primary contests. Additionally, participating in a primary can help voters get in the habit of voting.
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Trump’s path to securing the nomination remains unchallenged despite Haley's persistent campaign. While her efforts do require the Trump campaign to allocate funds that could have been used against Biden, the advantage Trump gains from investing in voter identification and turnout outweighs the drawbacks. The primaries serve as a practice round for the upcoming general election, and by refining his voter engagement strategies now, Trump will be better prepared for the main event.
Editor's P/S:
The article argues that Nikki Haley's continued presence in the Republican primary race, despite facing challenges and losing most primaries, is inadvertently benefiting Donald Trump. By staying in the race, Haley is providing Trump with valuable practice in mobilizing supporters and addressing weaknesses, which will be crucial in the general election against President Biden.
The author believes that Haley's strong financial support and ability to draw support from voters who are dissatisfied with Trump make her a formidable challenger, despite her low chances of winning the nomination. The primary season is seen as an opportunity for Trump to refine his campaign strategies and identify his strengths and weaknesses, which will ultimately strengthen his chances of success in November.
