Virginia Elections: The Ultimate Litmus Test for Both Parties Ahead of 2024

If you're similar to the majority of Americans, the elections held the year preceding a presidential contest are of little interest to you.

This year, only a small number of states with relatively small populations are having statewide contests for elective offices. Virginia and New Jersey are conducting elections for their state legislatures. Ohio voters will be making decisions on two ballot initiatives. Additionally, several cities will be holding mayoral elections.

However, before you completely ignore the election results on Tuesdays, it is important to focus on what could potentially be the most crucial test for both parties leading up to 2024.

Historically, the outcomes of the Virginia Legislature elections have demonstrated a strong correlation with the subsequent national elections in the following years. Therefore, a promising performance by either party on Tuesday would augur well for their prospects next year.

In 2019, the Democratic Party successfully achieved a major victory by gaining control of both chambers of the Virginia Legislature. The subsequent year marked another significant accomplishment for Democrats, with Joe Biden, a member of their party, winning the presidential election. However, Republicans made a comeback in 2021 by regaining control of the Virginia House. This was further followed by the GOP's triumph in reclaiming the US House of Representatives in 2022.

The Virginia Senate did not have an election in 2021 as state senators face their voters every four years. However, it is worth noting that the party in control of the Virginia Senate leading up to the presidential election has emerged victorious in all years except once since 1999. The exception occurred in 2011 when the state Senate witnessed a tie between the two parties, and the Republican lieutenant governor acted as the tie-breaker.

People chat after a rally and canvassing event with Sen. Tim Kaine in Glen Allen, Virginia, on Saturday, September 9.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

Virginia candidates have the potential to influence the conversation around abortion for both political parties in 2024. This election year presents an opportunity for either party to gain control over the state's legislative bodies. The Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the state Senate, while the Republicans narrowly maintain control over the state House.

According to an October poll conducted by The Washington Post and Schar, Democrats hold a slim 2-point lead on the generic House ballot in Virginia, but this falls within the margin of error. In comparison to 2019, when Democrats won the popular vote for both the Virginia House and Senate, this is a noticeable decline. However, it is an improvement compared to the 2021 popular vote for the state House. This aligns with the trends observed in national surveys, where the top contenders for their party nominations, Biden and former President Donald Trump, are neck and neck in the 2024 polls.

Special election trendlines

The electoral landscape in Virginia seems to diverge significantly from what we have witnessed in the legislative and congressional special elections of 2023. In these specific contests, Democrats have consistently outperformed the standard Democratic performance, as gauged by comparing the candidates' achievements with those of President Biden in 2020.

It remains uncertain why Democrats have been benefiting from the traditionally low-turnout special elections. Could it be solely due to Democrats being highly motivated to vote after Roe v. Wade was overturned, while voters in higher-turnout elections tend to show more support for Republicans?

If this is indeed the case, then the results of these special elections may not provide significant insight into the electoral outcome of next year. The 2020 presidential election witnessed the highest turnout in most of our lifetimes, and it is likely that 2024 will follow a similar pattern.

Virginia is unlikely to experience the same level of low voter turnout as seen in previous special elections this year. Both political parties are investing significantly in the state. On Tuesday, there will be a total of 140 state legislative elections taking place simultaneously. This is crucial because any individual election could deviate from the norm, for example, due to a particularly unfavorable candidate in a specific district.

Speaking of finances, a substantial amount of money is being directed towards advertisements that may provide a glimpse into each party's messaging strategies for the upcoming year. Democrats, in particular, have prioritized the issue of abortion. Will their advocacy for abortion rights be successful? Will it be sufficient to secure their position, despite Biden's lack of popularity and the favorable perception of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in the state?

If Virginia Democrats perform well, anticipate their counterparts in other parts of the country to attempt to emulate that accomplishment next year, once Biden is officially a candidate on the ballot.

However, if Democrats fail to achieve success in a state where Biden secured a victory with a margin of 10 points, what would that imply about the president's prospects in swing states that are less favorable?

Nothing good.