Prepare for Impact: The 2024 Elections May Reshape the World

David A. Andelman, a CNN contributor and two-time winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor. He is also the author of "A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen" and blogs at SubStacks Andelman Unleashed. Previously, Andelman served as a foreign correspondent and bureau chief for The New York Times in Europe and Asia and for CBS News in Paris. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion at CNN.

The events of this past year have caused some significant disruptions in global stability, but 2024 is expected to bring even greater shocks.

David A. Andelman

CNN

Next year, countries with more than half the worlds population will hold elections, as The Economist noted. More than 4 billion people live in the countries that will be voting.

In the past two years of covering global elections, I've observed unsettling patterns emerge. It has become increasingly common for voters around the world to abandon longstanding liberal ideologies in favor of extreme, often populist, promises from the far right. These trends are only growing stronger, pointing towards significant shifts in the political landscape.

Bangladesh kicks off the momentous election year, with the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party already sparking anti-government demonstrations. The BNP's top leaders are either jailed or exiled, and the party has threatened to boycott the upcoming polls unless Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and hands power to a caretaker government. Hasina is expected to continue her 15-year strong rule.

In February, the world's two most populous Muslim nations, Pakistan and Indonesia, have elections within a week of each other. Pakistan will have its first general election since the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan on corruption charges (which he denies). Despite not being a candidate, Khan remains a driving force behind his political party.

Shortly, Indonesia will be hosting the world's largest single-day election, with over 200 million voters within the country and 1.75 million Indonesian diaspora. However, the wealthy business and military elites are unlikely to release their control over power.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen holding his year-end press conference at Gostiny Dvor exhibition hall in central Moscow on December 14, 2023, in this pool photograph distributed by Russia's state agency Sputnik. The image is credited to Alexander Kazakov/Pool/AFP/Getty Images.

In the realm of US politics, Putin is able to discern the inevitable outcome. Meanwhile, South Africa is preparing for what may be the most transformative election in Africa, especially in the challenging era following Nelson Mandela's leadership. During the municipal elections two years ago, Mandela's African National Congress (ANC) party received less than 50% of the vote for the first time, reflecting voter discontent with the party's internal turmoil and corruption during its three-decade reign. If this decline persists in the 2024 general election, it will be a pivotal moment in South Africa's political trajectory.

In Europe, there are nine parliamentary elections coming up, and finding coalition partners to form majorities will be a major challenge for incoming governments. Keep an eye on Portugal's snap election in March, which comes after a corruption investigation led to the removal of the country's socialist prime minister after eight years in office. This election could signal a shift to the far-right Chega (Enough) party. Similarly, it looks like the right is set to make significant gains in Austria's election, scheduled for the fall.

The United Kingdoms general election is also scheduled to take place by the end of January 2025, with potential for a return of the Labour Party to power after 14 years of Conservative rule. In Latin America, Mexico is poised to elect its first woman president, with two female candidates running in the June election. The political agenda will focus on drugs, crime, and migration to the US. Additionally, Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro will be seeking a new mandate, with the stakes involving a border battle with neighboring Guyana over oil rights.

But there are five especially dramatic contests worth spotlighting:

Taiwan on January 13: A new president at the center of US-China tensions

Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), delivered a speech in Taipei on December 3. He is currently considered the leading contender in the upcoming general election on January 13.

Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

The stakes are especially high in this time of heightened tension between Beijing and Taipei as the United States continues to pledge a guarantee of Taiwans democracy.

With three presidential candidates, the narrow front-runner and ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pick Lai Ching-te is a concern for China due to his commitment to defending the islands' sovereignty, which was set by incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen. Hou Yu-Ih of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) is a close second and aims to initiate discussions with Beijing. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP) and former mayor of Taipei is a distant third, offering a middle ground approach. If voters maintain the status quo, Beijing is likely to increase pressure. The official Chinese response to the breakdown of unity talks between the opposition parties in November was described as "a choice between war and peace."

Russia on March 17: Putin is leaving little to chance

A digital display in Moscow features Russian President Vladimir Putin during his annual year-end press conference on December 14th. It is highly probable that he will continue serving as president after the national election on March 17th. Photo credit: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin plans to secure a president-for-life status in his thinly-veiled re-election campaign. He will be 78 years old by the end of his term, making him the longest-serving Russian ruler since Catherine the Great, surpassing Soviet leader Josef Stalin.

Putin is not leaving anything to chance. Currently, his only officially sanctioned opponent is Alexei Nechaev, a cosmetic businessman and a member of Putin's own political coalition, the All Russia Peoples Front.

Chaos may ensue in the 2018 Russian presidential contest, as hundreds of thousands of potential anti-Putin voices have fled abroad during the Ukraine invasion. Given Putin's age, this could be his final election, and an emboldened Putin may aim for a broader effort at reassembling a Soviet empire after the election, posing a risk of a direct confrontation with NATO.

India in April and May: The worlds most populous nation at a crossroads

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the start of the budget session of parliament in New Delhi on January 31. India, a vast country, is gearing up for a multi-week election scheduled for April and May. Image credit: Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images

The stakes for India in the upcoming election, which is expected to take place over several weeks in April and May, include the potential transformation of the world's most populous nation into a Hindu nationalist state and the marginalization of its Muslim and Christian populations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first term was focused on solidifying Hindu nationalism, and there are concerns that a potential victory for him in the election would allow for the fulfillment of his mission in this regard.

Next month, Modi will unveil a large Hindu temple, built on the site of an old mosque - a symbolic gesture of power for Modi and the Hindu community in India.

How does the United States handle a figure who is crucial to the developing world, an important trading partner, a counterbalance to Pakistan and its alignment with Russia and China, and a strategic barrier against unchecked Chinese growth in the Pacific?

European Parliament from June 6 - 9: A major shift to the right?

European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her annual State of the Union address at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on September 13th. Every five years, EU citizens select their representatives in the European Parliament, and the next election is set to take place in June. (Image: Frederick Florin/AFP/Getty)

In June, the future of Europe will hang in the balance as the European Parliament hosts its first election post-Brexit, with forecasts of significant upheaval. The groundwork for a potential surge in right-wing influence has been laid for years, gaining momentum in 2023. The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) may even emerge as the third-largest faction in the upcoming European Parliament.

This group of determined right-wingers and Eurosceptics could obstruct numerous moderate EU programs and support rightwing movements in leading powers like Germany and France. This could create hurdles for further aid to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, immigration restrictions, climate control rollbacks, and changes in how Europe interacts with China, as well as impact justice and the rule of law across the EU.

United States on November 5: The Trump factor and beyond

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump speaks at the Pray Vote Stand Summit on September 15 in Washington, DC.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

If Donald Trump is not elected president, the voting and campaigning leading up to November 5th could seriously damage the foundation of democracy in the United States. If he is elected, the impact could reach far beyond the borders of the US. What would happen to NATO if Trump were to withdraw? Those who seek to dismantle the alliance would undoubtedly feel emboldened.

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How could these declarations be put into practice if Trump becomes president? Given that he has already promised to meet with Argentina's outspoken new radical-right leader, Javier Milei, who has proposed replacing the peso with the US dollar, and also to significantly cut back on bureaucracy and budgets.

The state of the world a year from now will be decided by billions of voters either participating in or abstaining from the electoral process, each with different levels of freedom and transparency, as well as by the politicians who will show how much they respect the decisions made by their constituents.

Hopefully they will consider carefully and vote wisely.