Virginia's Pivotal 2024 Elections: A Game-Changer for the Abortion Debate

In Henrico County, Virginia, the battleground for the abortion rights debate in America has shifted. The upcoming state elections this fall will witness candidates taking positions that could determine how political parties will woo moderate voters in 2024.

As the rain poured down, GOP state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, sipping coffee, expressed her views on Virginia voters, stating that they do not support making abortion illegal.

"They desire for women to be given a sufficient duration to determine their course of action," she appended, prior to elucidating her rationale for endorsing limitations on abortion during the final trimester. This is not the customary approach employed by Republican politicians. However, as an OB-GYN, Dunnavant is now presenting a 60-second television advertisement wherein she addresses the camera directly, articulating her stance on abortion – specifically, advocating for its legality within the first 15 weeks, albeit with certain exemptions.

Earlier in the day, before the skies had unleashed their torrent, state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg - Dunnavant's Democratic adversary in this fiercely contested state Senate district - addressed a gathering in a backyard, revealing that his campaign had initially intended to prioritize reducing the cost of living and enhancing education. However, Dunnavant and GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, he lamented, had veered the election towards another direction.

Sue Geller chats with Schuyler VanValkenburg, a Democratic state delegate and candidate for Virginia's state Senate District 16, following a rally and canvassing event featuring Senator Tim Kaine in Glen Allen, Virginia, on September 9, 2023.

(Credit: Rebecca Wright/CNN)

VanValkenburg, referring to the governor, accused him of initiating these campaigns aimed at depriving people of their rights. This rhetoric, commonly used by Democrats since the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, has proven effective. Despite several Republican-led states implementing stricter abortion regulations after Roe, Virginia, with its divided legislature, remains the only Southern state that has not done so. Furthermore, in various traditionally conservative states, voters have supported pro-choice stances in post-Roe ballot initiatives.

Check out the nationwide regulations on abortion by clicking here. The upcoming legislative races in Virginia will serve as a crucial platform for the abortion issue, marking the first significant "candidate vs. candidate" contests since the midterm elections last year. All seats in the state House, controlled by the GOP, and the state Senate, led by Democrats, are up for grabs.

"Although there isn't a specific referendum question listed on the ballot, it effectively serves the purpose of one," remarked Virginia Senator Tim Kaine in a Saturday interview following the backyard rally. The event, hosted by the mother of Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger, who previously represented the region for two terms before the redistricting, sheds light on the transformation of this once GOP-dominated district. Spanberger's victory in 2018 demonstrated the suburban areas' shift away from Republicans during Donald Trump's presidency.

Kaine speaks to the crowd during the backyard rally in Glen Allen, Virginia, on September 9, 2023.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

Kaine and Senator Mark Warner, both Democrats, are actively persuading donors who were previously involved in abortion-related ballot measures in other states to shift their focus to Virginia. In the 2020 elections, Virginia favored Joe Biden by a margin of 10 points, but the following year, it voted for Youngkin with a narrow 2-point lead. Responding to the senators' request, President Biden recently instructed the Democratic National Committee to allocate $1.2 million for party campaign operations in Virginia. However, this amount pales in comparison to the $12 million raised by Youngkin's political action committee between March and August this year.

The upcoming November elections carry significant implications. For Youngkin, his political aspirations hinge on whether his party can attain complete control of the Virginia government. Additionally, 2024 candidates are closely observing the situation to determine how to approach the topic of abortion in their campaigns.

The only medical doctor in the legislature

Dunnavants staff had warned her Saturday that a storm was on the way and her door-knocking plans might be in jeopardy.

However, escaping the Festival of India at the Greater Richmond Convention Center proved to be challenging for her. It appeared that every third person desired to greet Dunnavant, and she promptly obliged by offering warm hugs or posing for photographs.

Having been elected to the Virginia Senate in 2015, Dunnavant is presently vying for an open seat that leans more towards the Democratic party compared to her current district. Despite this, a considerable number of voters still perceive her as the incumbent. In response, she asserts that her personal and professional experiences, as the sole medical doctor in the legislature, greatly influence her stance on abortion.

While many Virginia GOP candidates this year have publicly embraced the endorsed 15-week limit by Youngkin, with exemptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, Dunnavant holds a slightly different stance. She advocates for including "severe fetal anomalies" among these exemptions. However, she also believes that, except for cases involving the life of the mother, most exceptions should not go beyond the "realm of viability."

Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant speaks with kids at the Festival of India in Richmond, Virginia, on September 9, 2023.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

Current Virginia law allows abortions up to approximately 26 weeks, requiring three physicians to approve the procedure beyond that point. In an April poll conducted by The Washington Post and the Schar School, 75% of registered Virginia voters expressed their preference for either maintaining the existing abortion law or relaxing it. However, opinions among voters were evenly divided regarding the proposal for a 15-week limit with exceptions. "When Dobbs came through, I personally felt a responsibility to take action because it was no longer just a national discussion," Dunnavant stated, alluding to the Supreme Court ruling that ended Roe v. Wade, as she discussed her dedication to addressing abortion both in the legislature and now during her campaign.

Following the Dobbs ruling, it appears that more Republicans on a national level are realizing the potential political risks of disregarding the abortion issue. Ronna McDaniel, Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, commended the presidential candidates for at least addressing abortion during the primary debate held last month. Additionally, there is a growing recognition of the importance of discussing abortion in an effective manner. One Nation, an external Republican group affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, recently conducted research, which was later shared with Republican senators. This research suggests that candidates must provide specific details about their stance on being "pro-life" and discuss their support for exceptions.

"The political landscape has undergone a significant transformation, necessitating a fresh tactic," asserted Liesl Hickey, a seasoned Republican strategist and the creator of Dunnavant's advertisements, in an email. "In closely contested regions, candidates must retaliate when faced with attacks and ensure that Democrats do not shape the narrative."

The fear of what could come next

Tammy Campbell, a 53-year-old resident of Glen Allen, Virginia, does not find Dunnavant's argument convincing. Similar to many other Virginians, she believes that abortion should be legal, although she personally considers having the procedure near the end of a pregnancy to be comparable to murder. She passionately supports VanValkenburg, considering herself an "old school Democrat," and believes that their rights should not be taken away after fighting so hard to attain them.

Campbell is not deterred by Dunnavant's 15-week position, despite believing that the limitation should apply later into pregnancy. What truly concerns her is the potential actions that a GOP-controlled legislature could potentially take.

People sign a poster that reads "Elect More Women" during the Democratic rally in Glen Allen, Virginia, on September 9, 2023.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

"My concern is that, given our conservative state, we may end up reverting to the situations where individuals seeking abortions had to travel outside their state," expressed Campbell.

Fear plays a significant role in shaping the narrative surrounding abortion this year. The political discourse frequently goes beyond the candidates' defined positions and focuses more on the potential ramifications of their actions when in power.

Virginia House Democrats have released an advertisement that highlights the stricter abortion laws in neighboring states. The ad also includes a comment made by a state House Republican candidate during the primaries, stating his support for a complete ban on abortion. The Democratic ad states that "MAGA Republicans in Richmond want Virginia to be next." In contrast, a campaign ad from Virginia House Republicans suggests that Democrats support "elective abortions up until birth," referencing a 2019 bill that aimed to relax certain requirements. As the Republican ad plays, an image of VanValkenburg, a Democratic candidate, is shown on screen.

In a recent interview, VanValkenburg expressed his opposition to changing the current Virginia law. As a history and government teacher, he stated, "I don't think we should be making any alterations to it," and further added, "I believe we should accept the law as it is and enshrine it in the constitution."

Despite the absence of a specific timeframe for abortion access among national Democrats, Virginia Democrats are aligning themselves with the current 26-week status quo in the state. While they may not always go into detail, Virginia Democrats are emphasizing the impact of the Dobbs decision on the mindset of voters. Mamie Locke, the chair of the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus, highlighted the significance of this issue during a recent phone interview. She referenced a state Senate special election earlier this year, where Democrats successfully captured a seat previously held by the GOP.

According to Scott Kozar, a democratic media consultant who has worked on various political campaigns, including the recent Ohio ballot measure and multiple Virginia legislative races this fall, the emphasis on freedoms and rights is yielding positive results for Democrats. This is particularly evident in areas like this part of Virginia, which used to be represented by Eric Cantor, the former House majority leader, and his tea party opponent Dave Brat. Kozar believes that Republicans, who were once associated with championing freedom, are now perceived as proponents of control.

"College-educated men are now in play for us," he added. "Not saying theyre going to vote for us, but theyre a persuadable audience now."

Whats a ban?

At the Democratic backyard rally over the weekend, where refreshing Arnold Palmers were served from Spanberger-branded beverage dispensers, nurse practitioner Susanna Gibson passionately advocated for voters' rights and freedoms.

Susanna Gibson, the Democratic nominee for Virginia House District 57, speaks to the crowd during the rally in Glen Allen, Virginia, on September 9, 2023.

Rebecca Wright/CNN

Gibson expressed her concern to CNN about the potential ramifications of the Dobbs decision and emphasized her fear of women's rights being compromised in Virginia. She also addressed the recent reports about her and her husband's involvement in a pornographic livestreaming website, attributing it to unnamed political adversaries attempting to silence women. Gibson further stated that her Republican opponent, David Owen, indicated support for banning abortion according to a story published by the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Owen had described himself as "pro-life" during a campaign event and implied that the legislature had not taken any action to prohibit the procedure.

However, during a short interview at the recent Festival of India in Richmond, Owen expressed his endorsement of "a woman's right to choose" until the 15th week, provided there are certain exceptions. This noteworthy utilization of the language of "choice" is particularly significant coming from a member of the Republican party.

"It remains uncertain as to the composition of the legislature, but regardless, I will oppose any attempt to implement a ban. My stance firmly stands at 15 weeks," stated Owen.

Dunnavant has expressed her stance on the matter clearly: "I am firmly against banning abortion, no exceptions." In an ad showcasing other women who share her views, she categorically dismisses any claims suggesting otherwise as mere "political lies."

VanValkenburg holds a different perspective on the issue.

"If somethings legal and then it becomes illegal, thats a ban," he said as the poolside crowd at Saturdays rally nodded along.