South Asia to Witness Over a Billion Voters at the Ballot Box in 2024
A historic electoral event awaits South Asia in 2024 as over a billion people prepare to cast their votes Amidst controversy, the world's longest-serving female prime minister is poised to secure an extended rule, despite the opposition's boycott
The main opposition has boycotted the election as the world's longest-serving female prime minister appears poised to prolong her rule. Additionally, a cricket legend and former prime minister remains in prison, while a one-time fugitive seeks a comeback with a powerful military overseeing the situation.
The populist leader is aiming for a second decade in power while promoting a popular yet religiously divisive political approach. Meanwhile, an island nation is in the process of recovering from its worst economic crisis in decades following protests that resulted in the storming of the presidential palace.
Four South Asian nations are set to enter into a crucial democratic test next year, with almost 2 billion citizens across Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka set to vote between January and September. Having all gained independence from Britain in the last century, these former colonies are in varying stages of growth and are encountering a range of challenges and possibilities.
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Bangladesh's Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, held an election rally for her ruling Awami League party in Sylhet on December 20, 2023. The main opposition party has decided to boycott the election.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh, a country of some 170 million people, is the first to cast votes on January 7.
The established multiparty democracy is under threat as the ruling Awami League party is accused by rights groups of attempting to suppress dissent, moving the country closer to resembling a one-party state. Sheikh Hasina, the current Prime Minister and chair of the Awami Party, is expected to secure a fourth term as the leader of the country.
Hasina has held the position of power since 2009 and emerged victorious in the most recent election in December 2019, which was tainted by deadly violence and allegations of election fraud. Notably absent from the competition was her main rival, Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), who had been imprisoned for corruption the year prior.
For the last thirty years, Bangladeshi politics has been dominated by a fierce rivalry between two women. Both lost their fathers and husbands to assassination while in office, and the resulting political turmoil has continued into the next generation. Currently, 78-year-old Zia is living under house arrest, while her BNP party is facing increasing challenges from Hasina and her ruling government, which has been making mass arrests of BNP politicians.
The protests resulting from the situation have prompted the BNP to once again boycott the election, thus opening the way for Hasina to win once more. "The government claims to support free and fair elections with diplomatic partners while simultaneously imprisoning political opponents of the ruling Awami League," stated Julia Bleckner, senior Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, in a statement issued in November.
Bleckner added that with the government stifling free expression and systematically incapacitating the opposition, critics, and activists through arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearance, harassment, and intimidation, a free election is impossible. However, despite these challenges, the country's economic growth is on the rise as it aims to become a middle-income country by 2031. This growth is largely driven by the garment manufacturing industry, which contributes 35.1% to Bangladesh's annual gross domestic product, as stated by the US Commerce Department.
"Bangladesh has faced political instability since its inception, but has still managed to achieve a very good growth rate," noted Sreeradha Dutta, a professor of international affairs at OP Jindal Global University and author of "Bangladesh on a New Journey - Moving Beyond Regional Identity." She also mentioned that the country is actively working to build strong relations with its key neighbors in the region.
No matter who the leader is, the same developmental models will be chosen... because Bangladesh aspires to be something much larger than what it currently is.
Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan addresses supporters at a rally in Lahore on 29 October 2022. He is now in prison
K.M. Chaudary/AP/File
Pakistan
For most of its 76-year history, Pakistan has been governed by political dynasties or military establishments, with no democratically elected leader managing to serve a full five-year term since the country gained independence.
In recent years, the country with a population of 230 million has experienced a blend of political instability and militant attacks, combined with a severe economic crisis that has had a devastating impact on middle and lower income families. Imran Khan, the former prime minister and a highly influential figure, is currently in prison facing charges of fraud and disclosing state secrets, rendering him unable to participate in the upcoming February elections.
After being removed from office through a parliamentary no-confidence vote last year, Khan claims that the charges against him are politically motivated and orchestrated to prevent him from running in the election. Authorities deny these allegations. Television stations are prohibited from airing Khan's speeches and a number of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party members have been detained.
Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister of Pakistan, returned to the South Asian nation in October after nearly four years in self-exile, sparking political tensions and speculation about his potential bid for the top seat once again. This comes at a time when the country is grappling with economic uncertainty, frequent militant attacks, and climate catastrophes, posing significant challenges for its new leadership.
Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science and Neubauer faculty fellow at the Tufts University Department of Political Science, noted that political and economic uncertainty are closely linked. He stated that a government elected under suspicious circumstances is not only likely to be politically vulnerable and reliant on the military for survival, but also unlikely to attract much-needed capital inflows.
Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, speaks at the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, on Sunday, December 3, 2023.
Prakash Singh/Bloomberg/Getty Images
India
India, often referred to as the world's largest experiment in democracy, is gearing up for a massive election in the spring. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to secure a rare third term in power, solidifying his leadership of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Modi's influence on India's democratic institutions has been compared to that of Indira Gandhi in the 1970s, leading to concerns about the country's movement towards autocracy.
India's presence on the global stage has never been more significant. With diplomatic trips to Australia and the United States, Modi is positioning himself as a statesman who is solidifying India's position as a modern superpower. 2023 has been a remarkable year for India's 1.4 billion people.
This year marked a significant moment as India surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation. In the previous year, it also overtook its former colonial ruler Britain to become the world's fifth-largest economy.
In August, India achieved a historic milestone by successfully landing a rover on the moon, making it the fourth nation in the world to accomplish this feat. Additionally, it launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying the sun just weeks later.
In September, the country hosted the Group of 20 (G20), providing New Delhi with a chance to expand its influence internationally during a period of growing political unrest. However, in the nearly decade since his first election, critics argue that the founding principles of the world's largest democracy are rapidly deteriorating. The once secular and democratic values are being eroded, with minorities feeling targeted under the BJP's policies and government criticism being met with censorship and severe consequences.
Modi is facing a challenge from INDIA, a newly formed alliance of 26 political parties including the main opposition, the Indian National Congress. Despite this, the Congress party suffered losses in three out of four regional votes in key state elections in December, providing a boost to Modi and his BJP.
With the election approaching, analysts are noting that the landscape of Indian politics is still uncertain, and there is potential for significant shifts as the parties prepare to campaign in the coming months.
"People are optimistic about the possibility of a challenge to Modi and are hoping that the opposition parties will unite. However, that hope, which seemed realistic just three months ago, now appears more challenging," stated C. Raja Mohan, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, during a recent discussion with the Asia Society.
"But even six months is a long time in politics."
On July 13, 2022, protesters inside the office building of Sri Lanka's prime minister in Colombo shouted slogans and waved Sri Lankan flags during a demonstration against the government. The scene was captured by Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images.
Sri Lanka
Almost two years back, the former President of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, had to escape from his country when furious demonstrators attacked his home, holding him accountable for the nation's most severe economic downturn in 73 years.
The protest movement brought global attention to the struggling nation of 22 million, which faced soaring inflation and dwindling foreign reserves, leaving millions unable to afford basic necessities. As a result of the movement, Rajapaksa resigned from his position, allowing current President Ranil Wickremesinghe to take over.
In the upcoming elections before September, Wickremesinghe is expected to run for a second term, following his efforts to secure a crucial loan from the International Monetary Fund and implement significant budget reforms to stimulate financial growth. Since 2018, Sri Lanka has not held a general election, with Wickremesinghe postponing the polls multiple times due to the country's economic crisis.
With the economy and the citizens of the country on the road to recovery, the election date has not been disclosed yet. It is still uncertain whether 2024 will be the year when the citizens will choose their future leader.
