Unveiling Ukraine's Vulnerabilities: Russia's Shocking Cross-Border Strike

May is proving to be a difficult month for Ukraine. The town of Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region, which was freed from Russian occupation over 18 months ago, experienced heavy shelling and aerial bombardment on Friday. This shows that Russia is continuing to test Ukraine's defenses.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian attempts to move towards the town were stopped. However, the Russians have now tried to block road connections with Vovchansk.

The Russians carried out strong attacks along a 60-kilometer border area on Friday, stating that they had taken control of several villages in the 'gray zone' near the frontier. This comes after they had been focusing their efforts on advancing in Donetsk in the east throughout the year, making slow but notable progress.

As of Saturday, it seemed that the Russians were still in control of a few Ukrainian border villages, while there was ongoing heavy bombing in the Vovchansk region.

This cross-border assault highlights the challenges faced by the Ukrainian forces this year. They are spread thin, have fewer artillery compared to the Russians, lack adequate air defenses, and most importantly, suffer from a shortage of soldiers. The situation is made worse by the dry weather, which allows Russian mechanized units to maneuver more freely.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Finnish President Alexander Stubb held a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine on April 3, 2024. The conference took place amidst Russia's attack on Ukraine. REUTERS/Alina Smutko

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Russia launches a sudden attack on northern Ukraine, marking the most serious cross-border offensive in two years. Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, shared with the Economist that Ukraine is facing a significant challenge due to a lack of weapons. He mentioned that the months of April and May were anticipated to be particularly tough for them.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia currently has over half-a-million troops inside Ukraine or near its borders, despite suffering significant losses during the invasion. Additionally, there are reports of Russia mobilizing reserves in central Russia, as stated by Skibitsky.

Following the establishment of a new Russian military unit called Sever [North], there has been a recent assault on the northern border. George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War in Washington described Sever as a group of strategic importance.

Barros estimates that Russia aimed to assemble a force of 60,000-100,000 troops to attack Kharkiv, but it appears to be closer to 50,000. Despite this, Russia still possesses a considerable amount of combat power.

This new force attempted to move across the border, with indications pointing towards them facing substantial casualties. However, there are rumors that additional elite units from other divisions may join in, potentially expanding Russia's ambitions.

The Ukrainian special forces unit informed CNN that the recent events are just the start, with the Russians having established a position for future attacks.

According to a former Ukrainian officer writing on the blog Frontelligence, Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, which prevent them from keeping large units stationed along the border with fully equipped artillery ready for immediate use.

He expects the situation to evolve, “with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes.”

Gunners fire at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region, on April 21.

Gunners fire at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region, on April 21.

Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images

Several analysts predict that the Russians will expand their border attacks towards the Sumy region, where there have been ongoing raids by Russian special forces.

The Sever group may not be able to capture a city as large as Kharkiv, but that may not be their main objective. Instead, Barros suggests that the goal is to force Ukrainian forces to shift their focus from Donetsk to the Kharkiv region. The Russians aim to spread out Ukrainian forces along the 600-mile frontline, creating opportunities, particularly in Donetsk oblast, which is Russia's primary operational target for 2024.

The recent cross-border attacks may cause Ukrainian forces to shift their focus away from defending Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, where a Russian attack has been halted for some time. This could also result in the creation of a buffer zone within Ukraine, which the Kremlin claims is necessary to decrease the number of attacks on Russian cities like Belgorod.

Increasing the pace

The situation in Kharkiv is part of a larger trend. The Ukrainian military has reported a significant increase in combat engagements, with more than 150 occurring in just one day this week. This spike follows a notable rise in activity from March to April.

As a result, the Russian forces have the capacity to pressure Ukrainian defenses from various directions, spanning hundreds of kilometers. This strategic approach forces Kyiv to make educated guesses about the location and timing of an expected offensive in the early summer.

The faster pace of attacks in Ukraine is making their two main weaknesses even more problematic: not enough soldiers and limited air defense capabilities. Russia is taking advantage of this situation quickly, trying to secure their position before more assistance from Western countries arrives. It will be several weeks before significant help can make a difference.

According to Barros, the lack of manpower is a major issue for Ukraine. They are focusing on rebuilding their weakened brigades and creating around 10 new maneuver brigades to address this challenge.

An apartment building in Sumy, eastern Ukraine, heavily damaged by a Russian drone strike.

An apartment building in Sumy, eastern Ukraine, heavily damaged by a Russian drone strike.

A law to expand mobilization in Ukraine was only passed last month, almost two years after Russia mobilized around 300,000 additional troops. The process faced delays in the Ukrainian parliament for months. President Zelensky was concerned about the cost and political consequences of a larger mobilization. This delay has led to a significant numerical disadvantage across the frontlines, giving Russian commanders more chances to test for vulnerabilities.

Western analysts suggest that in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, the Ukrainians may be significantly outnumbered, facing a ratio of 10:1. They also lack an adequate supply of shells and do not have air cover. According to a Ukrainian military blogger, it is estimated that as many as 15 Russian motorized rifle brigades, each consisting of up to 1,000 men, are operating in the Chasiv Yar direction.

If the Ukrainians lose control of the high ground around Chasiv Yar, they also risk losing an important belt of industrial towns and cities including Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantinyvka. This would make them much more vulnerable to attacks.

Skibitsky mentioned to the Economist that the possibility of losing Chasiv Yar was there, depending on their reserves and supplies in the future.

A soldier named Stanislav, located north-east of Chasiv Yar, shared with Ukrainian television that the Russians have been advancing from Kreminna, where they have been amassing significant reserves after a month of intense hostilities.

“Huge numbers of Russian infantry are attacking day and night, in large and small groups,” the soldier said.

Gunners fire at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on April 21.

Gunners fire at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on April 21.

Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images

Barros emphasized that Russia is using its airspace to launch attacks on Kharkiv oblast due to a lack of trained soldiers, underscoring the importance of the US providing additional long-range air defense assets for Ukraine to use against Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.

In response to the escalating situation, the United States unveiled a $400 million package of air defense munitions and other weapons on Friday. However, more support will be necessary in the future.

Ukraine is facing challenges due to a lack of prepared defensive positions behind the front lines where they could retreat if needed. In Krasnohorivka, Ukrainian units had utilized apartment buildings and a brick factory as defensive positions, but these have slowly been destroyed by artillery fire.

President Zelensky and others have emphasized the importance of "active defense" by having better defensive fortifications to counter Russian advances. Zelensky himself has visited these fortifications, but they are insufficient and have been implemented too late in critical areas like Donetsk.

Zelensky expressed confidence that the aid arriving will help in stopping the Russians in the east. However, he admitted that the situation there is extremely challenging. He also mentioned that the current aid received is not as much as what was originally approved.

"We need everything to come faster," Zelensky emphasized.

Every day that passes without military aid, the Russians make progress and the Ukrainians suffer losses they cannot afford. Barros believes that the recent Russian advancements were not just by chance; they were well-prepared and are taking advantage of the situation. Ukraine may have to make tough decisions because of the delay in US action and the current dilemma they are facing.

That may amount to trading territory for time. And ultimately accepting that much of the territory now lost may not be recovered.

Editor's P/S:

May has proven to be a challenging month for Ukraine, as evidenced by the heavy shelling and aerial bombardment of the northern town of Vovchansk. Despite the defense of Ukrainian forces, the Russians have managed to block road connections with the town, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing struggles with a shortage of soldiers, limited air defenses, and inadequate artillery.

The cross-border assault underscores the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, who are spread thin and under-equipped compared to the Russians. The establishment of a new Russian military unit called Sever, with an estimated force of 50,000 troops, poses a significant threat to Kharkiv. The Russians aim to force Ukrainian forces to shift their focus from Donetsk to the Kharkiv region, creating opportunities for advancement in Donetsk, their primary operational target for 2024. Ukraine's manpower shortages and lack of prepared defensive positions further exacerbate the situation, making the timely arrival of Western aid crucial.