A Solution for Ukraine's Support, Irrespective of Trump's Election
Amidst global focus on Gaza, Ukraine remains in dire need of Western support CNN's Fareed Zakaria proposes a crucial strategy worth considering
Fareed Zakaria, host of "Fareed Zakaria GPS" on CNN, warns that amidst the focus on the war in Gaza and the Biden-Xi summit, the war in Ukraine is at risk of being forgotten. This is a critical situation as Ukraine is facing challenges on two fronts.
According to General Valery Zaluzhny, the country's top military commander, a stalemate has emerged in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Ukrainian soldiers in places like Kherson are displaying heroic efforts, but the lines of control have only shifted a few kilometers recently. Despite the utilization of drones and the Starlink connectivity, the situation is reminiscent of the trench warfare of World War I, which persisted for four years.
Additionally, there is growing concern about a second front in the West, where support for Ukraine is waning. President Biden's passionate advocacy notwithstanding, it is unlikely that his proposed aid package for Ukraine will be approved in the near future. European nations are also losing their resolve. In a private call, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni candidly admitted, "I have to be honest, I see that there is a significant amount of fatigue from all sides."
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Russia remains steadfast in its position, having learned from past mistakes during the early stages of the war. They have constructed formidable defensive lines across eastern and southern Ukraine, including extensive minefields, fortified trenches, and strategically placed artillery units. Overcoming these obstacles is crucial for Ukrainian soldiers to make any progress on the battlefield. Moreover, Russia's expansive military industrial complex is continuously producing a wide range of weapons, from shells to drones. However, countering Russia's advantage of a larger economy and population can only be achieved through sustained and significant assistance from Western allies.
Based on my discussions with Russian officials and their close contacts, it appears that the Russian strategy is to maintain a tough stance, reject any meaningful negotiations, and wait until November 2024. They are hopeful that Donald Trump will be re-elected as president, as they believe he would be willing to terminate the complicated alliance between the United States and Ukraine and strike a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the accuracy of this analysis is uncertain, it indicates that Moscow is unlikely to engage in negotiations in the near future.
Is there a way to address these dual challenges of a stalemate on the frontlines and diminishing support from Western nations? The answer is yes. By establishing an international and legal process, Russia's frozen reserves worth over $300 billion could be utilized to support Ukraine's reconstruction. The World Bank approximates that the cost of this reconstruction would exceed $400 billion over the next decade. This approach would not only assure Putin that Ukraine will not experience a funding crisis, but also convey that even if Trump were to be re-elected, these funds would continue to be facilitated through an international entity, perhaps situated in Switzerland or Belgium, and flow into Kyiv.
In Niu York, Ukraine, on November 06, 2023, a Ukrainian soldier can be observed in his combat position at a trench on the frontline during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu/Getty Images
Putins brutal war on Ukraine vanishes from news coverage amid raging conflict in Gaza
This policy presents several challenges. While Russia's reserves are spread across various countries, most of them are held by European allies. However, these governments worry about their lack of legal authority to redirect these reserves. Laurence Tribe, a renowned legal scholar, and his colleagues have provided a well-founded argument that supports the legality and appropriateness of using Russian reserves for Ukraine's reconstruction. This view is also supported by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, former World Bank head Robert Zoellick, and former 9/11 Commission executive director Philip Zelikow, who have convincingly argued that it is a sound policy move.
Tribes primary argument is that Russia has repeatedly and systematically violated international law and norms. Therefore, it is necessary and appropriate to hold Russia accountable by imposing some consequences. It is counterproductive to prioritize Russia's "property rights" over this logic, considering their brutal and sustained violations of Ukraine's property rights, resulting in the loss of thousands of civilian lives.
Russia's attack on Ukraine egregiously violates the principles of a rules-based international order. It is imperative to hold Russia accountable for their actions, but it is crucial to pursue this policy in a more effective manner. Instead of the United States unilaterally imposing its own conception of international rules, we should seek an approach that garners international consensus, adheres to established laws and norms, and involves legal experts such as Tribes. The establishment of an international legal organization and a fair process for resolving claims is necessary, while using the proceeds from Russia's assets and Ukraine's reconstruction to reinforce the foundation of international law and norms that underpin the rules-based order. As noted by Summers, Zoellick, and Zelikow, creating a precedent where a country that engages in naked aggression faces the risk of jeopardizing its economic stability would be a positive step towards addressing the current global disorder.
