Ukraine's Unprecedented Shelling Crisis: Will Europe Be Able to Keep Pace?

The landscape resembles a lunar surface, as captured in drone videos that span over a thousand miles of the Ukrainian front line. These videos showcase vast craters that have been carved out of the earth by relentless barrages, unseen by the naked eye.

The conflict in Ukraine has been heavily influenced by artillery warfare. However, despite it being almost 18 months into the war, there is still a notable disparity between the ammunition Ukraine requires and the speed at which European and American factories can produce and deliver them. There are growing concerns that Europe's fragmented network of arms manufacturers is inadequately equipped to meet these pressing demands.

Away from the frontlines, the conflict in Ukraine has transformed into a battle of numbers, with a focus on acquiring, producing, and replenishing tanks, ammunition, and especially artillery shells.

As the Ukrainian forces launch their counteroffensive, they are currently firing up to 6,000 rounds per day, according to Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova. However, the military aims to increase this number to over 10,000 rounds. Even so, this amount pales in comparison to the 60,000 shells that Russia employed during the peak of its bombardments this year, as analyzed by Estonian and Ukrainian government researchers.

In total, Kyiv requires approximately 1.5 million artillery shells each year, as stated by the CEO of Rheinmetall, one of Europe's leading arms manufacturers.

Since the 2022 invasion, the United States has supplied over two million artillery rounds to Ukraine, according to the Pentagon. Additionally, the European Union has provided a minimum of 250,000 shells this year, along with direct donations from individual member states. The United Kingdom has also contributed by donating ammunition.

According to Estonian defense officials, the maximum annual production capacity for artillery ammunition in Europe was estimated to be 300,000 shells in February 2023. However, even with the best-case scenario, it will be years before the capacity can be increased to 2.1 million shells per year.

Due to depleted European stocks and overwhelmed production lines, buyers are eager to acquire whatever ammunition is available. In an interview with CNN, the CEO of Europlasma, a shell casing manufacturer, described the message from buyers as, "We will take as much as you can produce."

Call to arms

"I need ammunition, not a ride," Ukraines President Volodymyr Zelensky told his American counterpart as Russian tanks rolled across the border last year.

The European Commission in Brussels has announced its commitment to aiding Ukraine in its battle for survival. In March, they revealed a three-stage plan to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March 2024. The initial phase involves European countries contributing from their national reserves. According to the EU, as of July 2023, approximately 224,000 shells have already been delivered to Ukraine.

The second phase involved European states joining forces to collectively procure shells from local suppliers in order to eliminate competition among allies and enhance efficiency. Currently, eight significant contracts worth 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) are being signed with suppliers.

Additionally, the EU pledged 500 million euros to support the long-term production of 155mm shells, the standard artillery ammunition for NATO. This investment aims to expand factory size and establish more secure supply lines to ensure adequate future production capacity.

Backed up orders

In their haste to increase output, manufacturers find themselves grappling with backlogs that could potentially require several years to resolve. The extended production delays pose a significant risk to their home country's military preparedness.

According to a February 2023 French parliamentary report, delivery of standard 155mm shells would require a maximum of 20 months, while more sophisticated guided models would take between 24 to 36 months to be delivered. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger emphasized the significance of robust land forces, stating, "Three years ago, there was a belief that airplanes alone could achieve everything. However, this is not feasible; strong land forces are essential."

Rheinmetall, a German arms company, currently has a backlog of orders worth 40 billion euros ($43 billion) for its ammunition, weapon systems, and vehicles, as stated by Papperger. Of this, ammunition alone accounts for 10 billion euros. The situation is similar in the US, where the military places orders for ammunition "20-30 months" in advance, according to William LaPlante, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment.

The numbers behind the increase in European production are impressive.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare mortar shells during military training.

Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Rheinmetall aims to produce 400,000 shells this year, with a target of 600,000 by 2024, up significantly from their pre-2022 production of fewer than 100,000 shells annually.

Nammo, the Scandinavian munitions producer, is optimistic about increasing their production to 80,000 shells per year in the coming year, contrasting with their output of "a few thousand" shells in 2021.

Both the increases in production and the push from the EU can be attributed to the low demand before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

US suppliers have also faced challenges in increasing production, but it is projected to reach 100,000 shells per month by 2025, compared to the previous 14,500 per month in early 2023, according to William LaPlante, the head of Pentagon acquisitions. Currently, the US production stands at 28,000 shells per month.

Even Tuuli Duneton, the senior Estonian defense official involved in devising the EUs plan, acknowledged that the objective of manufacturing 1 million shells for Kyiv within 12 months was a blend of ambitious thinking and practicality, considering the challenges of persuading member states to support a more ambitious target. "This is merely the inception. Ideally, this figure would expand in the coming years," she commented on the initiative, which presently has a scheduled completion date of 2025.

The EU's commitment of 500 million euros ($532 million) to support private investments may not be enough. According to Nammos CEO Morten Brandtzæg, around $7 billion will be necessary to address Kyiv's current requirements and replenish both Ukrainian and European arsenals. This project is estimated to take approximately a decade.

"It involves a significant and ongoing conversation with governments, exploring opportunities for co-investment, expanding capacity, and mitigating risks associated with building war-time capacity. The industry cannot bear the financial burden alone," Brandtzæg commented.

Europlasma, a supplier that does not manufacture finished shells, had no alternative but to invest in its own operation, as it cannot rely on European investments.

No golden bullet

In the current market, there is a strong demand for shells. According to Europlasma CEO Jérôme Garnache-Creuillot, if a company cannot deliver a quantity of at least 50 or 100,000 shells per year, they are simply not considered as potential partners or suppliers. In such cases, engaging in business discussions would be fruitless and a waste of valuable time.

According to Jonathan Caverley, a professor at the US Naval War College, supplying Ukraine with munitions right away may not be an efficient solution, indicating that the EU's plan is not a comprehensive answer.

"And accomplishing the objective of establishing a sophisticated and efficient defense industry across Europe will not be possible with this approach," he remarked.

Currently, the Western countries have not succeeded in providing affordable and standardized artillery equipment in significant quantities to Ukraine and NATO's reserves.

Despite facing international sanctions and the escalating costs of the war, Russia has managed to achieve this feat by leveraging its state-backed manufacturing. The Estonian defense ministry reports that Russia is producing artillery ammunition at a significantly lower cost, approximately seven times cheaper, and with a much faster production rate, approximately eight times faster than Western countries.

Duneton, the Estonian defense official, admitted that Russia's dedication to allocating resources, both human and financial, to ammunition production means that they will continue to outpace Europe in terms of ammunition production.

According to the defense think tank IISS, Europe boasts a total of 13 defense companies spread across 12 member states within the EU, the UK, and Norway that possess the capability to manufacture 155mm ammunition.

Ukrainian soldiers attach detonators to grad shells on August 9, 2023.

According to Caverley, there is potential for greater standardization in the production of 155mm-caliber guns and ammunition among NATO countries, especially in Europe. Historically, suppliers in Europe have primarily focused on meeting the specific demands of their respective home nations.

Manufacturers find the production of 155mm shells in a more standardized manner less appealing. According to Caverley, the current approach of fulfilling bespoke orders for specialized shells generally yields higher profit margins, making it a more favorable option. Furthermore, scaling up the production process is not an easy task. Manufacturers encounter challenges such as sourcing raw materials and electronic components, procuring machinery that may have a lead time of up to a year, and recruiting skilled labor.

Europlasma executives expressed their concern regarding the recruitment of workers for their forge, to the extent that they even inquired the visiting Ukrainian buyers if they could provide workers in France.

Although European defense officials maintain a cautious optimism about the European Union's plans to enhance long-term production, there is a significant limitation on the speed at which much-needed shells can be delivered to the Ukrainian troops.

It is a harsh reality for Ukrainians to withstand, particularly as criticism grows regarding the sluggish counterattack. Because, even with the support of their allies, as stated by Josep Borrell, the European Union's top diplomat, "weapons devoid of ammunition are of no use."