Understanding the Timing of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Unexpected Election Call

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised many when he announced that the United Kingdom would have a general election on July 4.

Many are questioning why Sunak has called for an election that he is likely to lose. Despite polls consistently showing the Conservative Party trailing behind the Labour Party, the current situation indicates that Labour leader Keir Starmer is on track to not only take power but also secure a significant parliamentary majority.

The answer to that question is straightforward: it's highly unlikely that there will be a more favorable time. Sunak's attempts at different strategies have not been successful, and it's possible that his popularity among the public could decline even further by the end of the year.

The recent days have brought some positive news for Sunak. There are signs of economic recovery, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the UK's growth forecast and inflation is gradually returning to a more stable level.

Nothing majorly went wrong in the week leading up to the election. It may not be much, but at this moment, he likely has the strongest support base for his campaign compared to any other time during his term in office.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech calling for a general election, outside 10 Downing Street, in London on May 22.

Maja Smiejkowska/Reuters

One key adviser to Sunak told CNN that when the Prime Minister came into office, he was faced with several key challenges such as inflation, lack of growth, and migration. His primary focus was to tackle these issues, and he has made real and significant progress in doing so. The IMF recently upgraded our growth forecasts, inflation has returned to normal levels, and migration has started to decrease as a result of the reforms implemented.

We have a strong foundation to believe that things are heading in the right direction. The timing seemed right to go to the country and showcase our progress, emphasizing that our plan is effective. Now, the question is: who is best suited to take bold action and lead the country towards a more secure future?

According to constitutional rules, Sunak had to announce the election before the year ends. His delay until this week gave his critics the opportunity to label him as fearful and hesitant to engage with the public.

The country has been feeling the need for an election for a while now, and the Conservative Party has seemed unstable for years.

Their start in government wasn't great. In 2010, David Cameron won the general election after 13 years of Labour rule but didn't secure a majority in parliament. This led to a coalition government with the centrist Liberal Democrats.

Cameron managed to maintain the coalition until the 2015 election, where he unexpectedly won a majority and formed the first Conservative government since 1997.

However, the joy was short-lived. The decision to hold the Brexit referendum in 2016 caused a deep division within his party and created significant challenges for his four successors. The first of these successors was Theresa May.

A failed snap election and the failure to get her Brexit deal approved led to May's resignation in 2019. She was succeeded by Boris Johnson. However, Johnson's term was marred by scandal, including illegal parties at Downing Street during the Covid-19 pandemic, causing him to step down in 2022.

Sunak (center) is shown a bottling machine during a campaign visit to the Vale of Glamorgan Brewery in Barry, south Wales, on Thursday.

Sunak (center) is shown a bottling machine during a campaign visit to the Vale of Glamorgan Brewery in Barry, south Wales, on Thursday.

Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

Liz Truss was in charge for 45 days and during that time, the economy faced challenges. The pound dropped to its lowest level against the dollar, interest rates went up, and inflation increased. The Conservative Party then decided to replace her with Sunak, who was seen as a reliable choice to bring stability.

There is a debate on whether Sunak has actually delivered on that promise. While Conservative sources praise his performance, his low poll ratings suggest otherwise.

His flagship immigration policy, where illegal migrants would go to Rwanda for their asylum claims to be reviewed, has already spent millions of dollars. So far, only one person has made the trip, doing so voluntarily and receiving payment.

His groundbreaking smoking ban, which caused Sunak significant embarrassment when his own MPs did not support it, has been put on hold because of the upcoming election.

These are just two recent examples of how things seem to go wrong for Sunak. But the most damaging issue around him is the general sense that he is seen as unsuccessful and lacks support from his own party. Despite presenting facts, figures, and soundbites, the perception of failure sticks to him. In politics, the feeling of inevitability is strong, and for Sunak, it feels like defeat is looming.

However, this may not be the case. It is possible that the polls are not reflecting the true situation, and there is a possibility that the Conservative campaign could turn things around.

They are making it personal: a clear choice between Labour leader Starmer and Sunak. Conservatives claim Starmer cannot be trusted on national security, is a shameless opportunist with no principles and has no plan.

Right now is probably the best time to hammer that message home. Labour will have to rush out its manifesto, which will inevitably be picked apart by commentators. The longer Sunak held off, the more time Labour had to get their house in order.

Sunak definitely inherited a messy situation, that's for sure. Right now, it doesn't look like he's completely sorted out that mess to guarantee the Conservatives another term in power. However, considering the huge challenge he faces, it's understandable that he's holding onto this moment of positive developments and remaining optimistic.

Editor's P/S:

The article presents a complex and uncertain political landscape in the United Kingdom, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak facing an uphill battle in an upcoming general election. Despite polls indicating the Conservative Party is trailing behind Labour, Sunak has called for an election, likely banking on a moment of positive economic indicators and the perception that things are moving in the right direction. However, the article also highlights the challenges Sunak has faced, including policy setbacks and low poll ratings. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, with both Sunak and Labour leader Keir Starmer presenting contrasting visions for the country's future.

Sunak's decision to call an election now raises questions about his strategy and the potential risks involved. While the Conservative Party may be seeking to capitalize on a moment of relative stability, the upcoming campaign could also provide a platform for Labour to criticize the government's record and present its own agenda. The article highlights the importance of public perception and the challenge Sunak faces in overcoming the sense of failure that seems to surround him. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will depend on a range of factors, including the effectiveness of the Conservative campaign, the strength of Labour's message, and the public's assessment of the country's current situation and future prospects.