Rishi Sunak's Bold Move Outshines Doubt: A Glimpse of Conservative Party Triumph

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak took the stage at the Conservative Party conference, with the backdrop of a podium that displayed the slogan "Long-Term Decisions for a Brighter Future." However, behind the scenes during the party's annual gathering over the past three days, members have been discussing their own future plans, some of which do not involve him.

This year's conference, held in Manchester, a historically significant city and former industrial hub of northern England, held particular importance as it is likely the last before the upcoming general election. It presented an important opportunity for Sunak to unify his party, following the challenges faced by his two immediate predecessors - Boris Johnson, who faced scandals, and Liz Truss, who dealt with economic turmoil.

However, despite being in office for less than a year, Sunak has surpassed expectations by stabilizing the situation and bringing a sense of peace to British politics. Nevertheless, a considerable number of members from his own party have spent this week addressing past grievances and accepting the imminent failure.

A train bound for Sheffield passes by the ongoing construction at the Old Oak Common HS2 site in London, England on October 3, 2023. Speculation has intensified this week regarding the future of the HS2 high-speed rail project, with rumors suggesting that the government may halt the Birmingham-to-Manchester leg and potentially change the initial end point from Euston to Old Oak Common. The completion of the new station at Old Oak Common is expected by the end of the decade. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Britain slashes funding for massive HS2 rail project, drawing concerns from the business sector over its impact on credibility.

According to a senior Conservative interviewed by CNN prior to Sunak's keynote speech, he has achieved something seemingly impossible, providing a glimmer of hope for the government to retain power. However, it appears that some individuals are reluctant to support him for undisclosed reasons.

Sunak is aiming for a remarkable fifth consecutive term for the Conservative Party, which has held power since 2010, initially in a coalition and solely from 2015 onwards.

These past 13 years have witnessed highly significant events in contemporary British politics, encompassing Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the controversies surrounding Johnson and the challenges faced by Truss. Sunak inherited a party in disarray and facing unpopularity, as suggested by opinion polls that indicate a bleak future.

Nevertheless, the team led by Sunak remains hopeful about the prospect of unifying the party prior to the upcoming election, which is required to occur no later than January 2025. Their approach to accomplish this objective seems to include a further shift towards the right, encompassing policies and rhetoric that are specifically crafted to resonate with Conservative members rather than the general populace.

Curious optics

Sunak's desire to appeal to the right-wing of his base was evident this week, with Nigel Farage, one of Britain's most prominent Brexiteers and a constant critic of the Conservatives, making an appearance at the conference. Farage, as the former leader of the Euroskeptic UK Independence Party, played a pivotal role in shaping the political narrative that ultimately led to the 2016 EU referendum being held. Despite the party establishment's disdain for Farage, Conservative members warmly received him and eagerly sought selfies with him upon his arrival on Monday afternoon. In many respects, he stole the spotlight at the Manchester event.

On October 2, 2023, Nigel Farage, the ex-leader of the UK Independence Party in Britain, addresses the press during the Conservative Party's yearly conference in Manchester, England.

Hannah McKay/Reuters

Its instructive, then, to see Sunaks strategy through that lens. 

Last week, the Prime Minister made a controversial reversal of green policies, including a postponement of the plan to increase the number of electric cars on British roads. He criticized the opposition Labour Party for supporting lower speed limits for drivers. Many Cabinet ministers have suggested the possibility of withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights, which they believe obstructs efforts to control immigration to the UK, particularly by refugees.

The health minister proposed a potential ban on transgender patients accessing hospital wards that correspond with their self-identified gender. Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch strongly criticized trans rights activists, restating the argument that Labour MPs do not understand the concept of womanhood.

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 13: Rishi Sunak, the prime minister of the United Kingdom, departs from 10 Downing Street to attend PMQs at the Houses of Parliament on September 13, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Peter Nicholls/Getty Images)

Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

Sunak delays crucial UK climate targets, with one eye on the next election

Sunak's closing speech included the cancellation of an expensive high-speed rail project in the north of England. He stated that this decision would save taxpayers £36 billion and the funds would be redirected towards numerous new transportation projects in the North and Midlands, both on rail and road. It is notable that the cancellation of this project, known as HS2, would have enhanced rail capacity and connections, providing Manchester, the host city of the conference, with faster links to London and improving transportation across the wider region.

When asked about the possible negative impact of announcing in Manchester, a close associate of Sunak dismissed it as a PR own goal, stating that winning over Manchester was not a priority and therefore, it didn't matter if they offended them. Given the widespread appeal of these policies among Conservative members, it is reasonable to expect that they would find a compelling reason to support Sunak.

However, this week demonstrated a significant lack of unity. In fact, the Conservative Party, which has historically embraced a diversity of factions vying for control, appears more fragmented than ever before.

It was noticeable while moving around the conference center that there were groups of Conservatives representing every facet of the party since 2010. Interestingly enough, many of these factions genuinely dislike one another and hold strong disdain for each other's visions for the party's future.

On October 2, 2023, Liz Truss, the ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, delivered a speech at the "Great British Growth Rally" fringe event during the Conservative Party's annual conference in Manchester.

Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

True Conservative talisman?

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The rebellion that garnered the most attention came from Truss, the immediate predecessor of Sunak. She delivered a speech at a rally simultaneously with Jeremy Hunt, Sunak's finance minister, who was delivering his conference speech on the main stage. Truss, along with other advocates of libertarian policies, demanded a thorough reassessment of the tax system and the overall scale of the government. It is worth noting that her speech occurred nearly a year after her proposed tax reductions resulted in market turmoil and the pound hitting its lowest exchange rate with the dollar.

You might assume that Truss's thoughts would not interest the public less than 12 months since her disastrous premiership ended. However, Conservative Party members have a different perspective. In stark contrast to Hunt's speech on the main stage, Truss's rally was held in a standing-room-only side room of a hotel next to the main conference center.

Supporters applaud as Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during the Conservative Party annual conference on Wednesday.

Jon Super/AP

But within the party, there are other factions who view a different former PM, Boris Johnson, as the true Conservative figurehead. The Johnsonites, superficially aligned with Truss and her followers, have the most fervent backing from the "red wall" voters - individuals primarily from economically disadvantaged backgrounds in the northern regions of England who backed Brexit and, in many instances, voted Conservative for the first time due to Johnson's leadership. The term "red wall" originates from the dominant color associated with the opposition Labour Party, which traditionally held influence in these areas.

Many members of this group find Truss's discussion of tax cuts for the rich and corporations offensive and disconnected, especially during a time when the UK is facing a high cost of living crisis. A high-ranking official from a local government in one of these areas expressed their frustration to CNN, saying, "How can I possibly tell people that we should reduce taxes and cut funding for local government? It's absurd."

Unfortunately for Sunak, many of these members had similarly unfavorable opinions of him. Although they generally supported many of his recent announcements, they doubt his sincerity regarding those promises.

"He is out of touch, being a liberal, and will not handle it adequately," remarked one member of the red-wall. Meanwhile, on the other end of the party spectrum, moderate members feel uneasy about the rhetoric expressed by cabinet ministers and the prime minister regarding topics such as migration and LGBT+ rights. This includes concerns about the home secretary, Suella Braverman, whose extreme stance even troubles some within the Conservative Party, including members of the cabinet."

Listening intently to Chancellor Sunak's keynote speech on October 4, 2023, are Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, Home Secretary Suella Braverman, and Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.

Stefan Rousseau/AP

We really can win this thing

The most optimistic faction of Conservatives at present is the group surrounding Sunak. They genuinely believe that, in spite of the current polls, Sunak has a substantial likelihood of remaining as the prime minister after the upcoming election. This viewpoint carries some validity: ever since Sunak's reversal on his environmental policies, his poll numbers have shown improvement, and his personal approval ratings surpass those of anyone else in his party, as reported by the pollster YouGov.

Numerous highly respected political strategists have rejoined the party to contribute to the election campaign. As one of them stated to CNN, "I wouldn't have given up my well-paid job if I thought we were going to lose."

The frustration for Sunak's allies stems from their optimism being overshadowed by the fact that many other factions within the party have already resigned to the notion that they will lose the next election. As a result, they are retreating into their respective positions, preparing for the blame game that will follow the election.

Bookmakers' odds on the next UK general election are displayed outside the Manchester venue for the Conservative Party Conference on October 4, 2023.

Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

According to a government source, the failure to gain support from certain individuals could be disastrous for us and our candidate, Rishi. It is crucial that we unite and work together in order to win this election. Unfortunately, Labour is not performing well, further amplifying the feeling of imminent defeat. Furthermore, the discussion surrounding the future of the party after Sunak's potential leadership adds to the anticipation of a fierce battle for the party's core beliefs once we are in opposition.

Many potential successors to Sunak, potentially even members of his own cabinet, participated in numerous intimate events where they engaged in casual conversations with friendly hosts, aiming to please party members in attendance and receive applause.

Nevertheless, in comparison to previous conferences, Sunak could consider this year's conference a success. He has successfully enhanced the party's chances since assuming office, and there was not the same prevailing atmosphere of negativity that overshadowed last year's gathering.

The party appears fatigued, uncertain, and occasionally resorts to desperate measures with its assortment of divisive policies and appeals to populism. While fairness and accuracy may be debatable, the prevailing mood of discouragement outweighed any sense of optimism.