Game Changer: UK's PM Aims to Unleash Surprising Election Win

Rishi Sunak will convene with members of the Conservative Party for their presumed last party conference before the upcoming general election, where Sunak is expected to face a defeat.

The Conservatives are gathering for their annual meeting with few reasons for joy. The party is significantly behind the Labour Party in the polls.

Sunak has faced criticism from moderate members of his party for veering to the right on important issues such as immigration and commitment to reducing carbon emissions. Additionally, he is being targeted by right-wing members of the party who believe his approach to taxation and public debt is not in line with conservative values.

Sunak's task of uniting his party this week has been made even more difficult by the publication of a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the UK's leading economic research institute. The report projects that taxes will comprise approximately 37% of the national income by the next election, reaching the highest level since World War II.

The party conference season is a significant event in the yearly political schedule of the United Kingdom. Occurring in the early autumn, these gatherings serve as the primary platforms for each political party to present their priorities for the upcoming year.

During conference, the governing party typically experiences a sense of solidarity amongst its members as they come together to support their leadership and counter the opposition, regardless of the ongoing political developments in the broader landscape.

Boris Johnson andRishi Sunak led the UK government through much of the Covid pandemic.

As an election draws closer, it is particularly important to consider this. Nonetheless, Sunak, who did not hold the position of the Conservatives' leader only a year ago, has taken charge of a party that is in disarray. After being in power for an extended period, the party appears to be devoid of fresh ideas and is already anticipating the post-election analysis and finger-pointing that typically ensues after a defeat.

And factions on both the left and right of the party are already publicly criticising Sunak on a range of issues. 

Examples coming into this years conference: 

Priti Patel, a former cabinet minister, expressed her views on the tax burden being "unsustainable" during an interview with British channel GB News on Friday. She further compared Rishi Sunak unfavorably to former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, known for her tax-cutting policies. The Daily Mail, a newspaper with conservative leanings, featured a column titled "Didn't the Tories used to be the party of tax cuts?"

Sunak is likely to face vocal criticism from the environmental wing of his party following a significant reversal on climate policy last week. Sunak postponed the implementation of a planned ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035, as well as opposing the phasing out of gas boilers in homes. Several Conservatives, including former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, criticized Sunak, emphasizing that the UK cannot afford to falter or lose its ambition in addressing the climate crisis.

Such an uncommon occurrence is the direct criticism of a current Prime Minister by a former Prime Minister. The notable aspect of this is the distress it causes for Sunak, as it is Johnson who is currently involved in a highly significant internal conflict within the Conservative Party.

Greenpeace activists targeted British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's private mansion this year.

Greenpeace/Reuters

Johnson's resignation from office last summer was compelled by a series of scandals. Nonetheless, Johnson's most devoted supporters view Sunak's resignation as the decisive factor that rendered Johnson's position unviable. They assert that Sunak's departure sprang from his aspiration to pursue the highest office, a claim Sunak refutes. This clash between Sunak and Johnson has engendered an unusual dynamic within the party.

Since the Brexit referendum, Johnson has been hailed as the darling of the Conservative right. Surprisingly, he leans more towards the left politically compared to Sunak. However, Sunak's cautious approach to Brexit and economic matters has driven Johnson's allies to portray him as a Conservative sellout. They firmly believe that Sunak's betrayal of Johnson and his seemingly indecisive centrism will be the ultimate downfall of the Conservative Party in the upcoming general election. Interestingly, they overlook the negative impact that Johnson's scandal-prone tenure as prime minister had on the party's reputation and poll standings.

Sunak has employed tactics to counter these attacks by catering to the sentiments of Conservative MPs and voters. The most recent example is the reversal of climate policies. He has emphasized a crackdown on immigration, specifically addressing the flow of small boats crossing the English Channel from France, as a crucial aspect of his agenda since assuming office. Criticism has surfaced regarding his approach to trans rights, which has stirred division, potentially in an effort to appease his own MPs. Additionally, he has aligned himself with the Johnsonite stance of criticizing "lefty lawyers" who oppose his proposals, including those related to immigration.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaking in June on his plan to "stop the boats."

Yui Mok/WPA Pool/Getty Images/File

Contrary to popular belief, most polls indicate that the public isn't fully aligned with his hard-line approach. This is why experts speculate that Sunak is strongly appealing to his Conservative supporters, as it may be his sole strategy to maintain power in the upcoming election.

According to Will Jennings, a politics professor at the University of Southampton, Sunak's approach of addressing matters such as achieving net zero and supporting small boats is primarily focused on appealing to the core Conservative voters. However, there are potential risks associated with this strategy. Firstly, it is uncertain how sizable the core vote is without the presence of Boris Johnson, Brexit, and Jeremy Corbyn (the controversial, left-wing former leader of the Labour Party). Additionally, voters currently have other pressing concerns, particularly regarding the economy.

Senior Conservatives are quietly accepting that the next election is highly likely to end in defeat. Not only is the government seen as nearing its end, but there are discussions already underway about who will replace Sunak after his loss. Divisions within the party, both on the right and left, are emerging, with individuals on both sides strategizing on how to win control over their party. While the outcome of the next election is not predetermined, the next few months will be crucial for Sunak to reverse the polls and achieve an impressive comeback. It all begins this week in Manchester, where a successful conference could uplift morale and unite party members, while a poorly received conference could deal a fatal blow to any remaining hope for victory.