Rishi Sunak's Immigration Battle: An Uphill Struggle
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a daunting challenge as he tackles the complex issue of migration head-on
The British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is facing a significant issue. The governing Conservative Party is consistently trailing behind the opposition Labour Party in polls as they prepare for the potential election year in 2024.
Since 2010, the Conservatives have remained in power, experiencing the leadership of five prime ministers and exploring various forms of conservatism. After 13 years in office, the party appears weary and lacking in new ideas. This is why Sunak is emphasizing the historically successful issue of immigration for the Conservatives.
Sunak, the son of immigrants himself, is currently making every effort to reduce the UK's net migration numbers, which hit a record high of 745,000 in 2022.
This increase in numbers can be attributed to the UK's welcoming policies for those fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong in recent years.
UK Home Secretary James Cleverly at the Kigali Genocide Memorial during his visit to sign a new treaty with Rwanda on December 5, 2023 in Kigali, Rwanda.
Ben Birchall/Pool/Getty Images
UK home secretary signs new Rwanda treaty to resurrect asylum plan
Ever since the UK's departure from the European Union, it is no longer bound by the Dublin Regulation, which was aimed at distributing the responsibility of hosting asylum seekers among EU member states by permitting member countries to return migrants to the first EU country they entered. This system was previously utilized by the UK with considerable success. This change has had a notable impact, particularly evident in the increased number of individuals crossing the English Channel in small boats.
Criminal trafficking gangs are predominantly in control of the boats, facilitating the illegal entry of migrants into the UK on unseaworthy, overcrowded vessels, resulting in numerous instances of drownings. Although not the primary cause of the UK's immigration figures, these small boats attract the most attention.
In 2018, only 299 people were detected crossing the English Channel in small boats, but by 2022, this number had dramatically increased to 45,755. While this figure is a small fraction of the total net immigration of 745,000, it has had a significant impact on the areas most affected by these small boat landings. The substantial increase in arrivals is impossible for residents of these areas to ignore, as they witness the influx of migrants being housed while their asylum claims are processed.
Small boat crossings have emerged as a critical issue in the upcoming election, leading to Sunak's decision to prioritize halting the boats as one of his five key objectives at the beginning of the year.
Crossing the English Channel in small boats is a perilous journey and the vessels frequently get into difficulty.
Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images
His predecessors left him with a controversial plan in which the UK made an agreement with Rwanda to send refugees there instead of allowing them to stay in the UK. However, legal obstacles, particularly from the European Court of Human Rights, have prevented the UK from actually sending anyone to Rwanda due to human rights concerns. Despite this, Sunak introduced a bill aimed at removing legal barriers to sending people to Rwanda, prompting his immigration minister to resign. The government is at risk of losing a parliamentary vote on the bill. Additionally, it was discovered that the British government has paid Rwanda an additional £100m this year, on top of the £140m already sent as part of the deal.
When a nation that voted to leave the European Union in 2016 faces interference from a foreign court in its domestic laws, it creates political openings. Nigel Farage, a prominent figure in the Brexit movement, has been leveraging his media presence and daily TV program to discuss the issue of small boats for an extended period.
His strategy of attacking Sunak and the Conservatives from the right has led some on the right of the Conservative Party to advocate for stricter immigration measures over time. Some even believe that there is a case for the UK to exit the ECHR. As the upcoming election approaches, there is speculation about whether including a referendum on the UK's membership in the ECHR in the Conservative manifesto could help retain voters who are considering smaller right-wing parties.
In fact, the recently-dismissed home secretary under Sunak stated in a parliamentary address earlier this week: "The powers to detain and remove must be exercised despite the Human Rights Act, the European Convention on Human Rights, the Refugee Convention, and all other international law... it is now or never. The Conservative Party faces electoral oblivion in a matter of months if we introduce yet another Bill destined to fail. Do we fight for sovereignty or let our party die?"
If this all sounds familiar, it's because it's all happened before. It was Farages Euroskeptic rabble-rousing that compelled former Conservative leader David Cameron to include a Brexit vote in his party's 2015 manifesto. Cameron won that election, but was pressured to step down a year later after losing the referendum. Sunak can at least seek advice from Cameron, as he recently appointed him as the UK's foreign secretary.
The first flight scheduled to take asylum-seekers to Rwanda last year was scrapped after legal challenges.
Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images
The UK's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda has been blocked by the Supreme Court. Though Cameron has publicly expressed support for Sunak's plan and the bill introduced this week, it is not difficult to imagine him telling his boss that the Conservatives simply cannot win on Europe and immigration.
The truth is, the standards set by Farage and some of his MPs are impossibly high for Sunak to meet. No matter what he does, it will never satisfy the migrant-centric voters. On the other hand, Sunak also risks appearing harsh and unsympathetic to those fleeing war zones by trying to relocate them to potentially unsafe areas, especially within the more conservative parts of the political spectrum in Britain.
Sunak is determined to shift the focus back to Labour, pressuring them to address the issue of immigration. However, this is a sensitive topic for Conservatives. There will always be individuals on the fringes of mainstream politics who can voice their opinions. In addition, British attitudes towards migration have changed in recent years - the belief that taking a tough stance on immigration would guarantee votes for the Conservatives is no longer as accurate as it once was.
Some who previously considered it a major problem now acknowledge the positive impact of migrant labor on the health service. Following Brexit, some individuals believe their worries have been attended to and that the country now has authority over immigration. While there are still those deeply concerned about migration, overall perspectives are beginning to shift.
Considering the challenging position he's in, it's unsurprising that Sunak is seeking divisive topics prior to the upcoming election. However, it's possible that the PM has initiated a conflict that he cannot possibly emerge victorious from.
