Experts Warn Ukraine's Chances of Success Diminish Without Increased US Aid Against Russia
Concerns grow as Ukraine's defense and future outlook are at risk due to the delayed aid package in the US Congress US and European officials warn of dire consequences if more support is not provided to counter Russia's aggression
The Ukraine aid package remains stalled in the US Congress, causing concern among American and allied officials about the potential negative impact on Ukraine's defense and its chances of winning the war. According to multiple sources, including US and European officials speaking to CNN, there is a consensus that Ukraine's prospects could be severely compromised without the aid. "There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us," a senior US military official commented.
Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive in the east and south is the most immediate concern, as Ukrainian forces have struggled to make significant forward progress even with previous US support. One European diplomat expressed that it is hard to see how taking and holding further territory could succeed without continued US support.
More broadly, Western officials are worried that the loss or delay of US support will impact aid from its allies. On Friday, Ukraine suffered another setback when Hungary blocked further European Union aid, although talks on the issue are expected to resume in January. This news highlighted the scale of the challenge facing Kyiv, and many fear that if the US stops providing support, European nations will do the same.
Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, emphasized that if the US were to go south, their allies would follow suit. Western intelligence agencies are now assessing Ukraine's ability to withstand pressure without support from the US and NATO. A senior US military official predicted that Ukraine could potentially hold out for months, but a worst-case scenario could lead to a significant setback or defeat by the summer. The potential for a Russian victory would not only be devastating for Ukraine but also pose a major threat to European security and deal a significant blow to the US.
When asked about the ongoing delays in US aid, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas declared to CNN from Brussels, "We cannot afford to discuss war fatigue at this moment. Giving in would mean a victory for Putin and catastrophic consequences for everyone. It would lead to more conflicts, wars, and food shortages, along with all the associated worries. This is why we must take action now."
According to US and Ukrainian officials who spoke to CNN, Ukrainian forces are currently rationing ammunition, while Russian forces are retaliating at a rate five to seven times greater than what the Ukrainian forces can manage. A senior Ukrainian military official informed CNN that the reduced firepower has resulted in additional Ukrainian casualties.
Ukrainian officials are concerned that without additional US aid, they will exhaust their supply of long-range missiles, air defense missiles, artillery ammunition, and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Each type of munition has played a crucial role in Ukraine's defense, with long-range missiles being instrumental in pushing back Russia's Black Sea fleet, air defense missiles protecting civilian infrastructure, and shorter-range missiles protecting against Russian tanks and aircraft. The situation is expected to worsen as Western intelligence anticipates an increase in Russian attacks.
The potential impact of a Ukrainian defeat on Europe is causing significant concern among some of America's closest European allies.
A European diplomat emphasized, "Many people do not fully comprehend the implications of Ukraine's potential fall. We could witness devastating events such as ethnic cleansing and the complete destruction of Ukraine, as evidenced by the actions in Bucha. Our focus should be on preventing such outcomes, and that is why we must continue our efforts."
This story has been updated with additional information.
