The World Temporarily Surpasses the 2-Degree Celsius Warming Threshold for the First Time in History

According to data shared by Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the Earth's temperature briefly exceeded a critical threshold that scientists have long warned could have devastating and irreversible effects on the planet and its ecosystems. Last Friday, the global average temperature surpassed levels prior to industrialization by over 2 degrees Celsius, as reported on X.

The threshold was momentarily surpassed, with

signifying that the planet is gradually heating up and heading towards a future scenario where the effects of the climate crisis will become increasingly challenging, and in certain instances, irreparable.

According to Burgess, it is our best estimation that this marked the initial occurrence of global temperatures surpassing 2°C above pre-industrial levels, specifically at 2.06°C. She emphasized that on Friday, the average global temperature was 1.17 degrees higher than the average from 1991-2020, setting a new record. However, when comparing it to over two centuries ago, when human activities such as widespread fossil fuel burning began significantly impacting the Earth's climate, the temperature was 2.06 degrees warmer.

The breach of the 2-degree threshold occurred on Friday, just two weeks prior to the UN COP28 climate conference in Dubai. During the conference, countries will assess their progress in adhering to the Paris Climate Agreement's objective of limiting global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with an aspiration of achieving 1.5 degrees of warming.

According to Burgess, surpassing the 2-degree mark for one day does not imply a violation of the Paris Agreement. However, it draws attention to our nearing of the internationally agreed limits. It is anticipated that there will be an increasing occurrence of days with 1.5-degree and 2-degree temperatures in the months and years to come.

The Copernicus data is currently in its preliminary stage and will take several weeks to be validated through real-life observations. In the coming years, it appears highly likely that the world will exceed a 1.5-degree temperature increase on a sustained basis, a critical threshold where scientists believe both humans and ecosystems will face significant challenges in adapting.

However, reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark is not the end-all for the Earth. As the temperature increases even by the smallest fraction above that threshold, the consequences become increasingly severe. If the warming reaches 2 degrees, a larger proportion of the population will face the risk of deadly extreme weather events, and the likelihood of irreversible tipping points being reached, such as the collapse of polar ice sheets and the mass extinction of coral reefs, will significantly increase.

According to Richard Allan, a climate science professor at the University of Reading in the UK, this breach serves as a warning sign to the urgent need for addressing greenhouse gas emissions.

According to him, exceeding 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels on individual days is anticipated to occur before the actual breach of the 2 degrees Celsius target over an extended period of time. This information follows a record-breaking 12 months of heat and a year with numerous extreme weather events, intensified by the climate crisis. These events, such as fires in Hawaii, floods in northern Africa, and storms in the Mediterranean, have resulted in loss of life.

Scientists are growing increasingly concerned as data on temperatures consistently surpasses their earlier predictions. A series of recent reports evaluating the state of the Earth's climate and human efforts to address it indicate that the planet is rapidly approaching a critical level of warming, with insufficient measures being taken to alleviate or adjust to its consequences.

The recent UN report revealed that even if countries implement all of their current climate commitments, the level of pollution causing global warming in 2030 will still be 9% higher compared to 2010. To effectively limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasizes the need for a 45% reduction in emissions by the end of this decade compared to 2010. With a 9% increase, it is clear that this target is significantly off track.

Additionally, another UN report indicates that the world is on track to exceed the designated limit for fossil fuel production, which would effectively control global heating. By 2030, countries are projected to produce more than double the allowable limit of fossil fuels needed to cap warming at 1.5 degrees.