Report Warns of Impending Global CO2 Emissions Surge Beyond Fossil Fuel Production Limit

Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is projected to exceed twice the levels necessary to fulfill the climate objectives outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to a report released on Wednesday by the United Nations and researchers. This report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) examines the disparity between current fossil fuel production reduction measures and the actions required to achieve climate goals. It arrives just ahead of the global COP 28 climate conference, commencing on November 30 in the oil-abundant United Arab Emirates.

Ploy Achakulwisut, a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and lead author of the report, emphasized the significance of fossil fuel phase out in the upcoming COP 28 negotiations.

To maintain the 1.5C target, Achakulwisut called for countries to firmly commit to phasing out all fossil fuels.

Under the Paris agreement, countries have pledged to limit the increase in average global temperatures to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, there is an additional effort to strive for even lower limits of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Despite the scientific consensus that reducing fossil fuel consumption is crucial in achieving this target, nations have not been successful in establishing international agreements regarding the phasing out of unabated coal, gas, or oil usage.

The report discovered that the 20 leading fossil fuel producers intend to increase their production of fossil fuels by around 110% in 2030, surpassing the threshold required to limit global warming to 1.5C. Additionally, their production plans exceed the limit consistent with 2C of warming. As stated in the report, none of these 20 countries have committed to decreasing their coal, oil, and gas production in alignment with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

Seventeen countries have committed to achieving net zero emissions, yet the majority of them persist in endorsing, providing financial assistance for, endorsing, and strategizing the growth of fossil fuel production. The report highlights that the 20 countries under scrutiny, including Australia, China, Norway, Qatar, Britain, the UAE, and the United States, collectively contribute to 82% of global fossil fuel production and 73% of consumption.

The report was produced by UNEP, as well as experts from the SEI, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and think-tank E3G and policy institute Climate Analytics.