World's Emissions Plans Leave the Global Heating Crisis Wildly Off Track, UN Assessment Reveals
New UN assessment reveals countries' emissions plans are significantly derailing global efforts to combat climate change Urgent action needed!
The latest evidence shows that the world is far from addressing the climate crisis effectively. According to the UN, even if countries fulfill all their current climate commitments, the level of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will still be 9% higher than in 2010. This stark difference highlights a significant disparity between the actions nations are taking and the scientific requirements to prevent the most devastating consequences of climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that in order to achieve the internationally-agreed goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, emissions must be reduced by 45% by the end of this decade compared to 2010. The current increase of 9% indicates that this target is significantly off track. If global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees, scientists warn that the resulting climate change impacts such as heightened heat waves, droughts, and storms will pose difficult challenges for both human beings and ecosystems in terms of adaptability.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) published a report on Tuesday, analyzing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the 195 countries signed up to the Paris Climate Agreement. The report indicates that despite dire warnings from climate scientists, emissions are still increasing. However, there is a slight glimmer of hope as the findings suggest that the increase in emissions is beginning to slow down. It is possible that emissions could reach their peak and start declining before the end of the decade.
According to the report, projections indicate that emissions in 2030 will decrease by 2% compared to 2019 and 3% compared to the estimated levels for 2025. This improvement is mainly due to certain countries recently increasing the ambition levels of their climate plans. This represents a significant shift from findings of the UN, which previously predicted that emissions would increase by 11% by 2030 compared to 2010 and 14% in the previous year.
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, referred to these actions as "baby steps." According to UN Secretary General António Guterres, the report demonstrates that the world is significantly deviating from the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and averting severe climate catastrophes.
"Over the past year, global ambition has shown signs of stagnation, while national climate plans have become noticeably misaligned with scientific recommendations," he stated. "With communities worldwide being increasingly devastated by severe floods, fires, and droughts due to the ongoing climate chaos, the growing disparity between necessary actions and actual initiatives is now more ominous than ever."
The aftermath of Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico on October 30, 2023 showcased the alarming intensification of the hurricane, a phenomenon intricately connected to climate change, which astonished forecasters with its unprecedented speed.
In another UN report released on Tuesday, an analysis was conducted on the 2050 plans of various countries to achieve net zero emissions, which involves the significant reduction of carbon emissions and the elimination of any remaining pollutants contributing to global warming. If these long-term strategies are executed punctually, it is estimated that the emissions of these countries could be reduced by approximately 63% by 2050, in comparison to the levels recorded in 2019. However, the report highlighted the uncertainty and lengthy timelines associated with many net zero targets, emphasizing the risk of delaying crucial actions for the future.
The findings from Tuesday's report align with the UN's Global Stocktake report released in September, which further substantiated the fact that governments are not taking sufficient measures to prevent disastrous levels of global warming. The report cautioned that there is a limited timeframe to enhance ambition and fulfill existing commitments.
According to Stiell, these findings should act as a catalyst for more assertive action at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai, organized by the UN. He emphasized the significance of even the smallest incremental change in temperature but expressed concern that we are currently far from the intended path. Stiell asserted that COP28 presents an opportunity for us to rectify this trajectory.
During COP28, nations will conduct the global stocktake, evaluating advancements in climate action. This procedure aims to contribute to the upcoming phase of enhanced national climate action plans that are scheduled to be presented to the United Nations by 2025.
