A new study, co-authored by James Hansen, the US scientist known for sounding the alarm on the climate crisis in the 1980s, indicates that the planet is on track to heat up at a faster rate than previously predicted. This could lead to the breach of a key global warming threshold within this decade. The study, published in the journal Oxford Open Climate Change, combines paleoclimate data, climate models, and observational data to reveal that the Earth is more sensitive to climate change than previously thought.
According to the report, we are currently in the early phase of a climate emergency. The report cautions that a surge of heat, which is already in progress, will rapidly cause global temperatures to exceed predictions. This will result in a warming of over 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the 2020s, and over 2 degrees Celsius before 2050.
These findings align with multiple recent studies that also warn of the world rapidly approaching the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Beyond this point, the impacts of climate change, including extreme heat, drought, and floods, will become significantly more difficult for humans to cope with.
However, certain other scientists have questioned the findings of the papers, which suggest that climate change is progressing at a quicker pace than what models anticipate. Hansen, an esteemed climate scientist and director at the Earth Institute of Columbia University, gained worldwide recognition for his testimony on climate change in front of the US Senate in 1988.
Previously, he cautioned about the Earth's energy imbalance, with more energy entering through sunlight than exiting through heat radiated into space. According to Hansen's research from ten years ago, this surplus heat amounts to the equivalent of 400,000 atomic bombs like Hiroshima's, primarily being absorbed by the ocean.
US scientist James Hansen, pictured in 2013, is credited as the first to publicly raise the alarm about climate change in the 1980s.
According to Hansen and his colleagues in their recent study, the energy imbalance has grown due to successful measures to combat particle air pollution, particularly in China and the implementation of global regulations to reduce shipping pollution. Although particle air pollution poses a significant health risk, it also acts as a cooling agent by reflecting sunlight away from the Earth.
According to the paper, an imbalance is expected to result in accelerated global warming and bring disastrous consequences, such as rapid sea level rise and the potential shutdown of vital ocean currents within this century. Nevertheless, the paper suggests that the warming is not irreversible and emphasizes the need for "extraordinary actions."
The measures recommended include implementing a carbon pollution tax, increasing the use of nuclear power alongside renewable energies, and taking decisive action from developed nations to assist developing nations in transitioning to low carbon energy. While reducing planet-heating pollution is of utmost importance, the report acknowledges that it alone will not be sufficient.
A more controversial proposal is the consideration of solar geoengineering as a potential climate solution. This technology aims to cool the Earth by redirecting sunlight away from the planet or increasing the release of heat into space. This can be achieved through methods such as injecting aerosols into the atmosphere or enhancing the reflectivity of clouds using salt particles.
Solar geoengineering is touted as a crucial solution for combating global warming, according to proponents. However, skeptics caution against potential repercussions such as disruption of rainfall patterns, monsoons, and a "termination shock" if geoengineering operations were abruptly ceased, leading to the release of accumulated warming.
With record-breaking heat becoming the norm, the findings of this research are concerning. Furthermore, this year is predicted to be the hottest on record, with each month from June onward surpassing temperature records.
However, there is controversy surrounding the notion that global warming is accelerating beyond the predictions of scientific models, despite the clear evidence that the rate of global warming is indeed increasing. Michael Mann, a reputable climate scientist from the University of Pennsylvania, considers these findings to be divergent from the prevailing scientific consensus.
The Earth's surface and oceans are experiencing warming, but there is no evidence to suggest that the rate of warming is accelerating, according to him. In an email to CNN, he stated, "The truth is already concerning enough!" Mann also disputed the effectiveness of pollution reduction in addressing warming trends, stating that its overall impact is minimal. Additionally, he expressed caution regarding solar geoengineering, deeming it both unprecedented and potentially hazardous.
"Whether or not the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is reachable is a matter of policy, not climate physics, at this point," Mann said.