The Significance of Taiwan's High-Stakes Presidential Election: A Visual Journey

Taiwanese voters are set to go to the polls on January 13 to select a new president and parliament, against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Taiwan and China. This comes as China has increased its military presence in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea in recent years.

The elections will determine the successor to Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's first female president who is completing her second term after winning elections in 2016 and 2020. Tsai is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a party opposed by China's Communist leaders because it sees Taiwan as an independent nation rather than a part of China, as claimed by Beijing. She is unable to run again due to term limits.

The candidates

Three candidates are in the running for president, as billionaire Terry Gou, the founder of Apple's major supplier Foxconn, decided to withdraw his potential candidacy just hours before the registration deadline.

Past elections

The opposition is composed of the Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese nationalist party that escaped to Taiwan in 1949 following the loss of a civil war, and governed the island with an authoritative grip for nearly 40 years. Additionally, there is the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP), a centrist alternative party that was established in 2019. Their attempt to collaborate and contest the ruling DPP fell through after their leaders engaged in a public quarrel during a live television broadcast, resulting in them registering separate presidential bids.

After breaking free from decades of martial law imposed by the KMT, Taiwan conducted its inaugural direct presidential election in 1996. Since then, only candidates from the KMT and the DPP, the two major parties, have achieved the presidency.

The presidential elections in Taiwan are decided by a simple majority of votes and occur every four years. The president is limited to serving two terms.

On Saturday, citizens will choose their president for the eighth time in a three-way race without a clear favorite.

Taiwanese election base

With nearly 20 million eligible voters, Taiwan's presidential election will take place across almost 18,000 voting stations, with approximately 1 million first-time voters participating. The issue of identity, particularly tied to Taipei's tense relationship with Beijing, has been a significant political division on the island, and studies indicate it has closely influenced voting patterns in past elections.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, even though it has never governed it. The CCP has consistently promised to bring the island back under Chinese control, even if it means using force.

Since 1992, the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University has been conducting polls to gauge the national identity of adult residents. In recent years, a increasing majority of respondents have identified exclusively as Taiwanese.

Timeline of political tensions across the Taiwan Strait

1945

In the aftermath of World War II, Imperial Japan, which had ruled the island since 1895, transferred Taiwan to the government of the Republic of China, which was in control of mainland China at the time.

1949

Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang forces fled to Taiwan after being defeated in the Chinese Civil War by Mao Zedong's Communist Party. Upon arrival, the KMT imposed martial law, marking the beginning of nearly 40 years of authoritarian rule in Taiwan.

Chiang Kai-shek and his bodyguards are seen visiting the Philippines in 1949. During the visit, Chiang and Philippine President Elpidio Quirino discussed an anti-Communist pact in the Pacific. Bettmann/Getty Images

1949-1979

The conflict between China and Taiwan continues to persist, maintaining a state of war with high military tensions. Beijing has consistently launched attacks on the outlying islands controlled by Taipei.

1979-1992

Following the deaths of Chiang Kai-shek in 1975 and Mao Zedong in 1976, there is a shift towards improving cross-strait relations. The KMT begins to pursue dialogue with the Communist regime in Beijing.

1987-1991

After the death of Chairman Mao in 1976, Chinese workers paid their respects to his body in Beijing. Mao passed away at the age of 82 on September 9. Bettmann/Getty Images

1987-1991

In 1987, martial law was lifted as the KMT began a slow transition towards democracy. Four years later, Taiwan ended the state of war with China.

1996

In an attempt to intimidate voters during Taiwan's first direct presidential election, China conducted missile tests near the island. Despite this, the KMT, led by President Lee Teng-hui, emerged as the winner of the race.

A Chinese destroyer participated in a live ammunition exercise by the People's Liberation Army in the South China Sea in 1996. (Source: Stringer/AFP/Getty Images)

2000

After more than 50 years, the KMT loses power as the DPP, founded by KMT opponents during the martial law era to promote a distinct Taiwanese identity, wins the presidency for the first time.

2008

Subsequently, the KMT wins the presidency back and dialogues between Taipei and Beijing resume, leading to a period of warmer cross-strait ties.

2014

The Sunflower Movement gained momentum as student-led protesters occupied parliament to oppose a controversial trade pact between Taiwan and China.

2015

A historic summit took place in Singapore between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, marking the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of China and Taiwan since 1949.

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-Jeou (L) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met at a hotel in Singapore on November 7, 2015. The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images

2016

Taiwan's presidential election is won by opposition candidate Tsai Ing-wen from the DPP. As a result, China reduces most communication with Taipei and initiates a surge in economic, diplomatic, and military pressure on the island.

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's President, acknowledges the crowd on May 20, 2016, after being sworn into office in Taipei, Taiwan. Tsai claimed a decisive victory in the election on January 16, 2016. Ashley Pon/Getty Images

2020

Tsai wins by a large margin in Taiwan as voters grow concerned about Beijing's threats in the wake of its suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong.

A pro-democracy rally takes place in Hong Kong on January 1, 2020.Isaac Lawrence/AFP/Getty Images

2020-2023

China escalates military pressure on Taiwan. A visit to the island by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022 prompts China to conduct its largest Taiwan-focused war drills in decades.

On August 4, 2022, tourists observed a Chinese military helicopter flying past Pingtan island in Fujian province of mainland China. This day marked the launch of massive military exercises around Taiwan, as mainland China displayed its strength following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the self-ruled island. Pingtan island stands as one of the closest points of mainland China to Taiwan. (Image Source: Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images)

Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Taiwan government, Britannica, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China Perspectives, Democratic Progressive Party, Mainland Affairs Council (Taiwan), US Department of State, American Enterprise Institute.