Contemplating the Crucial Aspects of Taiwan's Election

Taiwanese voters will head to the polls this Saturday to choose a new president in the first major election of 2024, during which voters in over 60 countries and territories, representing about half of the world's population, will also cast their ballots.

Lanhee J. Chen

Lanhee J. Chen/ECG Studios, LLC

This upcoming election will only be the eighth direct presidential election in Taiwan's history. Although incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen cannot run again due to term limits, it could potentially be the first time that the incumbent political party (in this case, Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party or DPP) wins a third consecutive term.

The upcoming island election holds significant importance due to its role in the ongoing geopolitical tension between the United States and China. Observers in both countries will closely monitor the results as it will affect the region's geopolitics and beyond.

For years, China's Communist leaders have considered Taiwan a renegade province, despite its long-standing self-governing status. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has expressed the view that Taiwan's reunification with China is "inevitable."

Taiwan's presidential race features three candidates: Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, the current vice president and a member of the ruling DPP; Hou Yu-ih, representing the Nationalist Party or Kuomingtang (KMT), and serving as the mayor of New Taipei City, the island's most populous city; and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and the leader of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), aiming to be the first "third" party to win a presidential election in Taiwan.

Recent public opinion polling, which is prohibited from being made public during the final ten days leading up to the election, indicated a slight but steady lead for DPP's Lai over KMT's Hou. With the polling blackout in effect, it remains uncertain how solid that lead is as the race nears its conclusion.

Here are two key questions that shine some light on how Taiwans elections will be decided: 

Cross-Strait or pocketbook? 

Taiwan's initial success during the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond set an example for other countries, with effective epidemic control measures and a resilient economy amidst global turbulence. However, economic growth and investment in Taiwan declined in mid-2022, leading to a recession at the start of 2023. Additionally, concerning economic measures such as inflationary price hikes for food and services, and weak wage gains compared to inflation, began to impact the island's residents.

The incumbent administration's handling of the economy has been met with dour assessments, creating an opportunity for rival parties to attack the DPP and Lai, its presidential nominee.

Illustration by Leah Abucayan/CNN/Getty

Opinion: Brace yourself. The elections of 2024 could shock the world

Lai has vowed to kickstart the economy, while the KMT has promised to strengthen economic connections with Beijing to improve Taiwan's economy. The TPP, on the other hand, prioritizes evidence-based policymaking, renewable energy development, innovation, small business support, and participation in regional free trade agreements. However, Taiwanese presidential elections typically focus on cross-strait relations and the stance of the major parties on relations with mainland China.

DPP candidate Lai has promised to uphold Taiwan's self-governing status and strong ties with the US, while also expressing willingness to engage with Beijing on fair and respectful terms.

On the other hand, the Nationalist Party has consistently favored improved relations with mainland China and has criticized the DPP for driving Taiwan towards conflict. KMT's Hou has positioned himself as a negotiator who would promote stability in the Taiwan Strait, framing the election as a choice between "war and peace."

On January 04, 2024, in New Taipei City, Taiwan, Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, is seen shaking hands with supporters during an election campaign. Hou Yu-ih, Taiwan's leading opposition presidential hopeful, is focusing on emphasizing peace with Beijing. He pledges a "middle way" that defends Taiwan's democratic system while also working for dialogue with Beijing under the "One China" notion. Taiwan is gearing up to vote in a general election on Jan. 13. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)

Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

This 2024 presidential election could change the world - and its not happening in the US

Meanwhile, Ko and TPP have attempted to find a compromise, advocating for "more rational cross-strait exchanges" while also stressing the importance of maintaining Taiwan's democratic system and its strong relationship with the US. The outcome of the election will greatly depend on whether voters prioritize economic or cross-strait concerns when making their decision.

The DPP's stance on cross-strait relations reflects the growing identification of the Taiwanese electorate as "Taiwanese" and their desire to move closer to genuine independence for the island, rather than de facto independence.

However, if the electorate chooses to express dissatisfaction with the DPP's economic policies and diminish the significance of cross-strait relations, an upset may result on Saturday.

Can young voters push a third party to victory?

Although independent and minor party candidates are not uncommon in Taiwanese politics, this year's election marks the first time in nearly twenty years that a candidate outside of the two major parties, the DPP and KMT, is posing a significant challenge in the election.

There is growing frustration among younger voters in Taiwan with the limitations of the two-party system and the constant attention on cross-strait issues by the major parties. They feel that pocketbook issues, which have traditionally been the main focus in US elections, are being overlooked.

Supporters gather at the election campaign rally in Kaohsiung, Taiwan on January 7, 2024. The Chinese Nationalist Party/Kuomintang Party (KMT) hosted the event as the Taiwan Presidential Election 2024 enters its final week. (Photo credit: Alex Chan Tsz Yuk/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Younger Taiwanese are facing the challenge of stagnant wages and high housing costs, leading to limited opportunities for upward mobility. Third-party candidate Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party has taken advantage of this political opportunity by positioning himself as an outsider capable of addressing the economic challenges the island faces.

In a bid to further appeal to younger voters, characterized as the "wild card" in this year's election, Ko has named Cynthia Wu, a 45-year-old political newcomer who was educated in the United States, as his vice presidential candidate.

The DPP has historically been popular among younger voters due to its progressive stance on social issues, but their focus on cross-strait relations has led to frustration. On the other hand, the KMT's position on cross-strait issues does not align with the views of many younger Taiwan voters. As a result, the TPP's pragmatic policies and emphasis on economic issues have attracted support from younger voters, shifting the conversation surrounding this year's election.

Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to stay informed about the latest updates and projections on the TPP's potential impact on policymaking in the coming years.

Sign up for CNN Opinions newsletter

Join us on Twitter and Facebook

Alternatively, the TPP could potentially join forces with the KMT, as was unsuccessfully attempted during the presidential election, to collaborate in the legislature as a counterbalance to a potential Lai presidency.

The Biden administration officials and Republicans in Congress have refrained from publicly endorsing any side in the election, but the DPP holds a strong reputation in Washington and has fostered connections there through its eight-year tenure in power.

If the DPP wins, Taiwan will move closer to the US. However, a KMT victory could temporarily ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait, which senior US officials may quietly support.