An Illustrated Journey through Taiwan's Pivotal Presidential Election

Taiwanese voters are set to cast their ballots on January 13 to select a new president and parliament as tensions continue to rise between Taiwan and China. The increased military presence of China in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea in recent years has made this election particularly significant. After two terms, Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's first female president, will be stepping down, paving the way for a new leader. Tsai, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is disliked by Chinese Communist leaders due to her party's view of Taiwan as a sovereign nation and not as part of China. Due to term limits, Tsai is unable to run for re-election.

The candidates

Three candidates will be vying for the voters' approval in the upcoming presidential election. Just before the registration deadline, billionaire Terry Gou, who founded Foxconn, a major supplier for Apple, decided to withdraw as a potential contender.

Past elections

The opposition consists of the Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese nationalist party that fled to Taiwan in 1949 following a defeat in a civil war and controlled the island with a firm grip for nearly 40 years, as well as the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP), a centrist alternative party established only in 2019. Their attempt to come together to challenge the ruling DPP fell through after their leaders argued on live television, resulting in separate presidential bids being registered.

After decades of KMT-imposed martial law, Taiwan held its inaugural direct presidential election in 1996. Since then, only candidates from the two major parties - the KMT and the DPP - have secured the presidency.

Presidential elections in Taiwan are determined by a simple majority vote and occur every four years, with a two-term limit for the presidency.

On Saturday, citizens will choose their president for the eighth time in a three-way race without a clear favorite.

Taiwanese election base

Almost 20 million people in Taiwan are eligible to vote in the presidential election at nearly 18,000 polling stations, with approximately 1 million being first-time voters. The issue of identity, connected to Taiwan's tense relationship with Beijing, has been a major political division on the island and has been closely associated with voting patterns in past elections, according to studies.

The Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, although it has never governed it. The CCP has consistently pledged to bring the island back under Chinese rule, even if it requires the use of force.

Since 1992, the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University has been conducting polls to gauge the national identity of adult residents. In the past ten years, there has been an increasing majority of respondents identifying themselves exclusively as Taiwanese.

Timeline of political tensions across the Taiwan Strait

1945

Following the conclusion of World War II, Imperial Japan - which had governed the island since 1895 - transfers control of Taiwan to the government of the Republic of China, which was in power over mainland China at that time.

1949

Following their defeat in the Chinese Civil War to Mao Zedong's Communist Party, Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang forces fled to Taiwan. Upon their arrival, the KMT imposed martial law, marking the beginning of almost four decades of authoritarian rule on the island.

Chiang Kai-shek is pictured here with his bodyguards during a visit to the Philippines in 1949. During this trip, Chiang and Philippine President Elpidio Quirino discussed an anti-Communist pact in the Pacific.Bettmann/Getty Images

1949-1979

Currently, China and Taiwan are still effectively in a state of war, leading to high military tensions. Beijing continues to shell outlying islands controlled by Taipei.

1979-1992

Following the deaths of Chiang Kai-shek in 1975 and Mao Zedong in 1976, there is a gradual improvement in cross-strait relations. The KMT takes steps to engage in dialogue with the Communist regime in Beijing.

1987-1991

The lifting of martial law in 1987 marked the beginning of a slow transition towards democracy by the KMT. Four years later, Taiwan ended the state of war with China.

1996

China conducts missile tests near Taiwan in order to intimidate voters during the island's inaugural presidential election. The KMT, led by President Lee Teng-hui, emerges as the winner of the election.

A Chinese destroyer is seen firing during a significant live ammunition drill conducted by the People's Liberation Army in the South China Sea in 1996. Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

2000

After more than 50 years, the KMT loses power. The DPP, founded by KMT opponents during the martial law era to promote a distinct Taiwanese identity, wins the presidency for the first time.

2008

The KMT then wins the presidency back, leading to the resumption of dialogues between Taipei and Beijing and a period of warmer cross-strait ties.

2014

The Sunflower Movement emerges as student-led protesters occupy parliament to oppose a controversial trade pact between Taiwan and China.

2015

A historic summit took place in Singapore between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, marking the first face-to-face meeting between the leaders of China and Taiwan since 1949.

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-Jeou (L) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met at a hotel in Singapore on November 7, 2015. The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images

2016

Taiwan's presidential election is won by opposition candidate Tsai Ing-wen, from the DPP. In response, China reduces communication with Taipei and increases economic, diplomatic, and military pressure on the island.

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's President, is pictured waving to the crowd on May 20, 2016, after her inauguration in Taipei, Taiwan. Tsai achieved a resounding election victory on January 16, 2016. Ashley Pon/Getty Images

2020

Tsai secures a resounding re-election victory as Taiwanese citizens grow increasingly concerned about Beijing's intimidation tactics in the wake of its suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong.

A pro-democracy protest takes place in Hong Kong on January 1, 2020.Isaac Lawrence/AFP/Getty Images

2020-2023

China escalates military pressure on Taiwan, as a historic 2022 visit to the island by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sparks the largest Taiwan-focused war drills by China in decades.

Visitors watch as a Chinese military helicopter zooms past Pingtan Island in Fujian province, mainland China, on August 4, 2022. On that same day, mainland China initiated extensive military maneuvers around Taiwan in a display of strength following Pelosi's visit to the self-governing island. Pingtan Island stands as one of the closest points on mainland China to Taiwan. Hector Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Taiwan government, Britannica, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China Perspectives, Democratic Progressive Party, Mainland Affairs Council (Taiwan), US Department of State, American Enterprise Institute.