Taiwan's Presidential Election Amidst Escalating Chinese Aggression
Taiwan's pivotal election unfolds amidst mounting Chinese threats, posing significant implications beyond its borders With three contrasting visions for the future, the outcome holds the key to the island's destiny at a critical juncture
Taiwan is set to hold a highly anticipated election on Saturday, with implications that extend beyond its borders. Despite ongoing threats from Beijing, the self-governing island of 24 million people will select a new president and parliament. The election takes place amidst escalating tensions with China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who has demonstrated a stronger and more hostile stance towards Taiwan.
The lively election campaign in Taiwan showcases the country's strong democratic principles, as it addresses both domestic livelihood concerns and the complex issue of its relationship with its authoritarian neighbor to the northwest. Despite never having controlled Taiwan, China's ruling Communist Party asserts its claim over the territory. Xi has expressed a belief in the historical inevitability of Taiwan's unification with the mainland.
Taiwan's future and its relations with Beijing could be drastically altered depending on the results expected to be announced Saturday night. These results may also serve as a test for the United States and China's recent efforts to stabilize their often turbulent relationship.
Beijing, known for regularly deploying fighter jets and warships near Taiwan's airspace and waters, has characterized the upcoming vote as a decision between "peace and war, prosperity and decline." On Wednesday, Beijing cautioned Taiwanese voters to choose wisely regarding their "cross-strait relations," while also criticizing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), winner of Taiwan's previous two presidential elections.
In the days leading up to the vote, candidates went on tours of major cities around the island to hold nightly campaign rallies. These rallies featured rock music, passionate speeches, and the rhythmic chanting of slogans by large crowds.
Supporters of the opposition Kuomintang wave flags during an election rally in Kaohsiung, Taiwan on Sunday afternoon, Jan 7, 2024.
Alex Chan Tsz Yuk/SIPAPRE/Sipa/AP
Taiwan People's Party (TPP) presidential candidate, Ko Wen-je, greets supporters during a motorcade campaign tour in Tainan, Taiwan on January 9, 2024.
Man Hei Leung/Anadolu/Getty Images
Three men with different visions
Three candidates are competing to replace President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's first female leader. During her eight-year tenure, Tsai has elevated Taiwan's international status, solidified its relationships with democratic nations, and implemented progressive domestic policies such as legalizing same-sex marriage, despite her party facing backlash over economic concerns.
China's relations with Taiwan plummeted after Beijing severed most communications with Taipei following her election victory in 2016. The situation further escalated when economic and military pressure intensified after her landslide re-election four years later.
The current vice president, Lai Ching-te, is aiming to secure a third term for the ruling DPP, which advocates for Taiwan's de-facto sovereignty and distinct identity from China. This would be unprecedented in the island's nearly three decades of democratic history and would signify Taiwanese voters' continued rejection of Beijing's coercive tactics.
Hou Yu-ih, a former police chief and mayor, is the chosen candidate for the Kuomintang (KMT), the main opposition party that has historically supported stronger cross-strait relations. A win for the KMT would be favorable to Beijing and indicate a desire from voters to ease tensions.
Ko Wen-je, the third candidate, is from the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP) which he established in 2019 to challenge the political dominance of the island. Like the KMT, Ko also supports closer ties with China, but he has expressed a willingness to be more independent from Beijing compared to the KMT.
The competition is close, with recent polls indicating that Lai has a slight lead over Hou, with Ko following closely behind. Beijing, openly expressing dislike for the DPP and Lai, and preferring a victory for the KMT's Hou, has increased its pressure on Taiwan in the run-up to the election.
Taiwanese exports were hit with sanctions, spy balloons were flown over the island, and a new aircraft carrier named the Fujian, after the mainland province closest to Taiwan, was revealed. Taipei has accused Beijing of increasing disinformation campaigns and amplifying talking points favorable to China-friendly candidates as part of its election interference.
China has traditionally employed a strategy of both rewards and punishment to attract Taiwan, yet in recent years, the focus has been primarily on the latter. This more aggressive approach, coupled with the authoritarian governance of President Xi, has widened the divide between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. Presently, less than 10% of Taiwanese citizens support reunification, and less than 3% identify as Chinese. A 33-year-old writer, known only as Tsang, expressed his concern for the relationship between Taiwan and China, as well as the preservation of Taiwan's democratic principles.
"He told CNN at a DPP rally on Thursday that Taiwan is a distinct country from China, and it's important to inform the international community of this distinction. But voters in Taiwan are also concerned with other issues beyond their relationship with China."
Many individuals, particularly younger voters, believe that China is not the primary concern in this election, despite increasing threats from Beijing. They doubt that the current situation will change in the near future, despite Xi's rhetoric. Instead, their focus is primarily on economic and livelihood issues, such as Taiwan's persistently low wages and unaffordable housing.
Pedestrians walk down a shopping street in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023.
Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg/Getty Images
As election nears in Taiwan, many young voters say China isnt their biggest concern
Analysts suggest that the TPP, positioning itself as a "pragmatic" and "middle-way" party, has successfully appealed to young voters in this particular area.
"At TPP rallies, the leaders frequently boast about the improvement in our economy. However, as a transport sector worker and father of two children named Wu, I don't personally feel that improvement on a local level," Wu expressed his sentiments on Thursday.
"The rise in housing prices and cost of living means that people need to be more cautious about their spending," he remarked.
Since Friday, the entire island has been in motion - Taiwan's absence of absentee ballots requires voters to travel to their home counties to vote.
Almost all daytime high-speed train tickets from Taipei to the southern part of the island on Fridays and Saturdays are sold out well in advance. Additionally, some voters have returned from overseas.
Dan Chang, 36, flew back to Taipei on Friday after working in finance in Hong Kong. For him, Taiwans sovereignty is the most crucial issue. He has never trusted China, and Beijings crackdown on Hong Kong has only reinforced his belief, he said.
"If Taiwan didn't share a border with China, I might not feel as compelled to return and vote," he said.
