The Significance of 2024: A Pivotal Year Ahead

The world and America could undergo significant changes by January 1, 2025, depending on the outcome of major conflicts, pivotal global elections, and geopolitical forces that will shape the upcoming year.

A crucial White House race will once again test democracy in the United States. The resurgence of far-right populism is not limited to Donald Trump, as the movement is gaining momentum in Europe. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza pose risks of broader global implications, while concerns about massive migration, economic recession, and the increasing impact of climate change threaten political and economic stability. Democratic governments are struggling to demonstrate their ability to address these challenges to their constituents.

An epochal US election

The world remains unaltered simply because a calendar transitions from one year to another. However, considering the culmination of anticipated events in the upcoming year, alongside the multitude of uncertainties, the Olympian year of 2024 has the potential to signify a pivotal moment in the history of the 21st century.

The 2024 election could potentially result in the re-election of Trump, making him the second US president to win a non-consecutive term. The former president has made it clear that his intention is to test US democracy and the global order led by America. He has promised to use the presidency to retaliate against his enemies and weaken the government to serve his personal agenda. While comparisons to Nazis may be exaggerated, Trump's rhetoric, such as referring to his political opponents as "vermin" and warning about immigrants contaminating America's blood, is reminiscent of 1930s demagoguery and could lead to an extremely controversial presidency. Internationally, Trump is indicating a shift towards cozying up to autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially disregarding relationships with allies like Ukraine and even putting NATO at risk.

Time is running out for Republican primary candidates to overthrow Trump. If there is not a surprise upset in Iowa and New Hampshire in the next few weeks, Trump will have even more control over the GOP than when he left the White House in disgrace in January 2021. This election is unlike any the country has ever seen, with the likely challenger being an ex-president facing 91 criminal charges across four cases, including alleged crimes against democracy, being prosecuted by a special counsel in his successors administration. If Trump succeeds, it will be one of the most shocking and foreboding comebacks in political history.

If Trump is the opponent, it will be the final political campaign of President Joe Biden's lengthy career, which began when Richard Nixon was in the White House. Biden's team is assuring nervous Democrats that if Trump is the GOP nominee, voters will show up to thwart an extremist takeover. However, there is skepticism about the 81-year-old's stamina and ability to serve a full second term. Rising prices have soured voters on his economic record despite inflations retreat, and new global conflicts and challenges to US power weaken Biden's claims to be a master of foreign policy. The president's coalition may be fraying, particularly among young and minority voters, and unlike 2020, he will be judged on his own record more than Trump's. Additionally, third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could claim a share of the anti-Trump vote in some states.

Despite being repeatedly underestimated by both his own party and his opponents, Biden still has the potential to secure the support of suburban moderates alienated by Trump. If global events align in his favor, he may navigate a tough path to re-election. On the other hand, Trump continues to attract disillusioned voters who see him as a defender against social and racial change, while identifying with his criticism of "elites" in various institutions. However, choosing Trump means supporting a candidate who sought to overturn an election and vows to further undermine democracy in the future.

What happens in November could change America for good and send massive shockwaves around the world.

The Supreme Court in the spotlight

After years of declining popularity due to conservative majority decisions, such as overturning the federal constitutional right to an abortion, the court is increasingly becoming entangled in politics. Justices may have to make difficult rulings on divisive issues, such as recent actions in Colorado and Maine seeking to prevent Trump from appearing on the ballot due to the 14th Amendment's prohibition on "insurrectionists."

Furthermore, the court may be tasked with resolving Trump's claims that all of his actions, including attempts to interfere with the outcome of the 2020 election, are protected by presidential immunity. With the country deeply divided and Trump's refusal to acknowledge election results, it would not be surprising to see the court becoming involved in this year's November election.

More Washington chaos is guaranteed

The challenges in governing the Americas will be brought to the forefront in the upcoming month, as critical decisions loom regarding immigration policy, aid to Ukraine and Israel, and the essential task of funding federal operations. This high-stakes drama has the potential to result in a government shutdown and limit the country's capacity to exercise power and influence on the world stage.

Ukraines fateful year

The precarious Republican House majority, influenced by pro-Trump extremists, is determined to impeach Biden and implement significant spending cuts despite lacking a clear mandate, will likely become even more extreme in the upcoming election year. The new House Speaker, Mike Johnson, is already facing challenges in maintaining power, as he grapples with the same struggle between governance and politics that led to the downfall of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. The current disarray and dissatisfaction with incumbents may result in the Republican-led House and the Democratic-led Senate flipping in opposite directions this fall.

Will this be the year the West abandons Ukraine and rewards Putin for recent air assaults on civilians? Biden's pledge to support Ukraine seems uncertain as Republicans block his military aid pledge. Putin's allies in Europe are seeking to cut Ukraine's lifeline, leaving President Zelensky with a difficult choice if the West turns away.

A victory for Putin in his attempt to outwait the West would have devastating implications for how America treats its allies. It would reward the aggression of an autocrat against a sovereign democracy and result in a staggering defeat for NATO, ushering in a new era of insecurity in Europe.

The Middle East on the brink

Can the Biden administration prevent the war in Gaza from escalating into a larger conflict? Will Israel eliminate Hamas before tarnishing its international reputation through the harm of Palestinian civilians? How much longer can scandal-plagued Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government last given the security crisis in Israel?

These questions arise during a tense moment in the conflict sparked by Hamas attacks in Israel. Tensions are rising across the region, with US troops and ships at risk as Iranian proxy groups in Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon put pressure on Israel and US power. Although Biden has expressed support for Israel, the Netanyahu government seems determined to continue its Gaza operations despite calls for de-escalation, and is prepared to fight for months. The conflict is causing political consequences for Biden at home, especially with young and progressive voters, and Arab Americans in swing-state Michigan who criticize his leadership.

Voters can change the world

This year, hundreds of millions of people outside the US will participate in elections. However, the global elections may not necessarily showcase the robust health of democracy, but rather its increasing vulnerability. The upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan could potentially escalate tensions with China. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win re-election, further consolidating his power in the world's largest democracy. Despite Modi's Hindu nationalism, the US is still seeking to ally with him against China. Meanwhile, Russia's elections are often considered a facade, with Putin using a predicted victory to solidify his power despite significant military setbacks in Ukraine.

Elections for the European parliament could provide an opportunity for far-right, populist, and anti-immigration parties in several countries. This success could serve as a warning for leaders such as Trump, who saw a similar rise with the 2016 Brexit vote. Britons may reject right-wing leadership in an upcoming election and turn back to the Labour Party after 14 years. This could signal a potential risk for incumbents worldwide, including Biden. The opposition in South Africa sees an opportunity as the scandal-plagued African National Congress is at risk of losing power for the first time since Nelson Mandela's presidency. Additionally, Mexico could experience a historic moment, as both major candidates in the upcoming presidential election are women.

A new geopolitical reality

The year 2024 will mark a new phase in global alignment. The US and its allies are confronting a loosely coordinated coalition of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Although they have different interests, they share the common objective of undermining US power. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have been influenced by various combinations of this alignment. There is now a race between the West and its adversaries to gain influence with developing nations in the "global south," particularly as China attempts to challenge the established rules and norms of the US-led global order. These shifting geopolitical dynamics mean that every global crisis serves as a test of US credibility and President Biden's leadership, especially as Republicans aim to portray him as a weak leader in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

Immigration confounds governments on both sides of the Atlantic

Nearly every major developed nation is grappling with undocumented migration flows. From the surge of migrants at the southern US border to the failed attempt by Britain to deport migrants who arrived via small boats in the English Channel, immigration continues to be a contentious issue in politics. However, deep ideological divisions on both sides of the Atlantic have made it nearly impossible to implement effective reforms to address undocumented migration, overwhelmed border facilities, and a dysfunctional asylum system. Global efforts to tackle the root causes of mass exoduses are hindered by weak governments that lack the capacity to take on issues such as climate change, wars, failed states, political extremism, and economic hardship. The worsening situation plays into the hands of extremists like Trump in the US and far-right leaders in Europe, such as Geert Wilders, who exploit immigration issues for political gain, making it even more challenging to find solutions.

Will the US-China Cold War heat up again?

Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reached an agreement, at the very least, to prevent the escalation of dangerous tensions at their summit in California in November. However, the most crucial diplomatic relationship in the world is constantly being strained by multiple pressures. China sees the US efforts to counterbalance its rise as encirclement and an illegitimate attempt to undermine its rightful destiny. Terrifying near encounters between US and allied forces and Chinese ships and aircraft in the South and East China Seas could spark a major crisis at any moment. China's insistence that democratic Taiwan should be brought under mainland control poses one of the greatest risks of a major new war. Additionally, China will be a major issue in the US election, limiting Biden's room for maneuver, while Xi is facing significant pressure at home and has never shied away from playing an aggressive, nationalist card for political gain.

Understanding AI is just the first step

This year, governments will ramp up their efforts to address the social, economic, employment, and security implications of breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. With more companies, global militaries, and non-state belligerent groups exploring the potential uses of these new technologies, officials are faced with the challenge of regulating a rapidly accelerating industry that many of them struggle to fully comprehend. The prospect of leaving the industry and its destabilizing impact on society in the hands of developers and moguls, who previously unleashed unregulated social media, is a concerning alternative.

Hopes for the global economy

Last year, US stocks experienced an unexpected surge, fueled by a decrease in inflation and strong job creation in an economy that outperformed the rest of the world. If the Federal Reserve successfully navigates the process of easing its high-interest rate approach, it could greatly boost Bidens reelection chances. China is looking for a recovery after a challenging year and has the potential to contribute to global growth. However, if Trump is reelected and follows through with his plan to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, it could lead to a trade war that disrupts the global free trade system and ultimately harms consumers.

Climate crisis to outrace mitigation efforts

If current patterns persist, the global community could be facing yet another year of significant flooding, widespread wildfires, extreme weather events, and prolonged drought. However, as the undeniable evidence of climate change becomes increasingly alarming, the political determination in many nations to adhere to previously established emissions targets is waning due to the clear impact on consumers and the perception by some politicians that opposing liberal environmental policies is politically advantageous.