The final days of September marked a pivotal moment in the battle for the White House, as both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump campaigned extensively in key swing states, giving the impression that the election was nearing its conclusion rather than just beginning. Despite the fact that the next presidential election is still 13 months away, and the first Republican primary votes won't be cast until winter, their efforts demonstrated the immense significance of this fight.
The futile efforts of Trump's opponents to make an impact at the GOP presidential debate in California solidified the perception that they are merely vying for second place. Additionally, this has revealed a deep truth about the 2024 election that Biden emphasized in a speech on Thursday, cautioning, "There is a troubling phenomenon occurring in America." If Trump becomes the GOP nominee, his campaign will not only be for a non-consecutive second term, but also overshadowed by four criminal trials that involve accusations of power abuses during and after his tumultuous first term in the Oval Office.
President Joe Biden gives a speech on democracy at a ceremony commemorating the esteemed US Senator John McCain at the Tempe Center for The Arts in Tempe, Arizona, on Thursday.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Biden previews 2024 message by warning that Trump's movement is a threat to American democracy
A pseudo general election campaign
Despite his absence from power, it is evident that Trump's rhetoric and actions continue to pose a significant danger to the democratic guarantees and constitutional institutions of the country. With the nation grappling with a closely contested election, uncertain economic circumstances, and the promises of normalcy made by Biden in 2020 yet to be fully realized, the threat posed by Trump may be even more pronounced than before.Both Trump and Biden made appearances in Michigan this week to appeal to blue-collar voters. Additionally, the president traveled to Arizona, a state he narrowly won in the previous election. Arizona is home to rapidly growing suburbs that are reshaping the US political landscape. In order to secure the presidency next year, he will need to generate significant turnout in this region.
Following weeks of Democratic concerns regarding his chances in the upcoming election, and a public debate regarding his age, Biden shifted to a more assertive approach. He returned to the topic of democracy being under threat, which was seemingly supported by Trump's recent authoritarian outbursts and demagoguery. Biden cited the remarks of a previous leader who attempted to disrupt the peaceful transition of power in 2020, emphasizing that the fundamental values of the US were at risk. Addressing Trump and his "Make America Great Again" followers, Biden stated in his speech in Arizona, "Frankly, these extremists have no comprehension of what they are talking about."
The content fragment
Biden employed the same message that propelled him into the presidential race in 2020 - that Trump posed a fundamental threat to the Constitution. He defied skeptics by effectively utilizing the same tactic in the 2022 midterm elections, aiding the Democrats in withstanding the anticipated Republican red wave. By proclaiming the jeopardy of democracy, Biden aspires to achieve a greater feat: persuading Americans who are grappling with inflation and high interest rates, and harboring concerns about his age (he would be 82 at the beginning of a second term), that the election holds far greater significance than merely evaluating his performance. "We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in our history," declared the president.
Trump's actions in the past week only served to reinforce Biden's warning. One disturbing example was his suggestion that Gen. Mark Milley, the outgoing chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be executed for upholding constitutional governance during his final days in office. Trump also issued a veiled threat, stating that if reelected, he would seek to shut down media organizations, specifically targeting MSNBC. Additionally, while in Detroit, Trump accused Biden of attempting to sabotage the auto industry through his support of a new cleaner, electric automobile industry, labeling it a government "assassination" of the sector.
Despite these troubling actions, recent polling revealed that a significant portion of Republican voters still hold Trump in high regard. The former president continues to represent the sentiments of millions of Americans who believe in his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen. They see him as the voice of their frustrations with government, media, and various institutions. Trump's strategy of portraying the legal indictments against him as political persecution resonates strongly with Republican voters, and this reality will remain unaffected by Biden's warnings about the state of democracy under attack.
A GOP debate that did nothing to challenge Trumps seeming inevitability
The disastrous Wednesday night Republican presidential debate shed light on the reason behind Trump's seemingly unstoppable lead in the primary race. In theory, the boycott by former presidents provided an opportunity for one of the other candidates to assert themselves and pose a significant challenge to Trump's quest for a third consecutive Republican nomination.
But the evening was more cringeworthy than decisive. It featured Governor Chris Christie's lackluster attempt at humor, referring to Donald Trump as "Donald Duck." Former Vice President Mike Pence also made a daring joke about sleeping with a teacher, who happened to be his wife. Furthermore, there was a childlike quarrel between Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and former Governor Nikki Haley over expensive curtains at her previous residence in New York during her time as the US ambassador to the United Nations.
Republican presidential candidates are pictured standing behind their podiums during a primary debate held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. The debate was jointly hosted by FOX Business Network and Univision on September 27, 2023. (Photo: Mark J. Terrill/AP)
Key Learnings from the Second Republican Presidential Debate
The showdown at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California not only highlighted the mediocrity of the candidates compared to the highly influential Great Communicators on Air Force One, but also underscored the glaring absence of Trump's exceptional political prowess. These contenders vying for the runner-up spot clearly lack Trump's ability to establish a distinctive campaign message, neutralize opponents, ignite rage and passion among their supporters, or even come up with catchy monikers.
The primary battle is not yet concluded. However, with less than four months remaining until the first votes are cast, it is increasingly difficult to imagine a sudden surge by a Trump opponent that could significantly impact his position in Iowa or New Hampshire and create a legitimate challenge for the nomination.
Some of the candidates did criticize Trump more harshly, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. However, the criticism mainly focused on his refusal to participate in events rather than addressing the underlying issue of the 2024 race: whether a man who has refused to accept the outcome of a previous election and has pledged to seek vengeance through the presidency is suitable for the Oval Office. Trump's refusal to engage in debates is a concerning indicator, even if it may be seen as a clever political strategy. (Trump also stated on Thursday that he would not participate in the third debate in Miami in November). The former president is avoiding scrutiny in a public forum. He stated to the Daily Caller that Republicans "must put an end to the debates" as they are detrimental to the party. As always, he is attempting to undermine democracy.
Trumps legal woes challenge his aura of impunity
"This is a realm of fiction, not reality," declared Judge Arthur Engoron of New York in his recent ruling, holding Trump and his two adult sons responsible for fraud in a civil lawsuit that could have disastrous consequences for the family business. This statement highlights perhaps the greatest peril Trump faces in an election year - the potential downfall of his knack for avoiding accountability, fabricating falsehoods, and constructing alternative universes when confronted with the rigorous standards of the legal system in the four impending criminal trials that loom ominously ahead.
16 September 2023, USA, New York: The Trump Tower on 5th Avenue in Manhattan. Photo by: Michael Kappeler/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
Michael Kappeler/picture-alliance/dpa/AP/FILE
Why a fraud finding is like 'corporate death penalty' for Trump
Trump's vulnerability on this issue was further exposed on Thursday when he failed in his attempt to halt the civil fraud trial. The trial will focus on his significant exaggerations of real estate asset values and will determine the financial penalties in the potential $250 million lawsuit, and it is set to proceed on Monday. However, those hoping for legal judgments to hinder Trump in 2024 may be disappointed as the former president is certain to prolong the battle through appeals and litigation for years. Moreover, previous evidence suggests that Trump's legal troubles actually boost his poll numbers and fundraising, particularly among GOP voters.
Nevertheless, if a series of damning court judgments arise next year, it could potentially harm Trump's standing among critical moderate and suburban voters if he becomes the Republican nominee. The approaching legal storm, coupled with the immense stresses of a presidential campaign, will undoubtedly impose personal and financial strain on Trump. This was evident when news broke of Trump's failure to delay the fraud trial at the same time that Biden was speaking about the threat to democracy in Arizona, highlighting how the legal storm will impact the 2024 campaign.
Governing by chaos is back in Washington
With their narrow majority in last year's midterm elections, Republicans opened the door for the resurgence of Trumpism, marking its return to power for the first time since the former president departed the White House in January 2021.
The impeachment investigation into the president, led by Reps. James Comer of Kentucky and Jim Jordan of Ohio, powerful committee chairs and loyal followers of the ex-president, has yet to provide evidence of Biden personally benefiting from his son's questionable influence peddling during his vice presidency. Although Hunter Biden's actions imply a blatant conflict of interest, the ongoing probe falls short of meeting the constitutional criteria for impeachment, which include treason, bribery, and high crimes and misdemeanors. Moreover, the fact that witnesses contradicted key aspects of the investigation on Thursday will only reinforce the perception that the GOP is leveraging its authority for political advantage.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy addresses reporters as Congress reconvenes amidst a looming government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, September 26, 2023.
Tensions between McCarthy and Gaetz soar as House GOP meeting turns heated amid looming shutdown
As House Republicans conducted their inaugural impeachment inquiry hearing, the threat of a government shutdown grew imminent. The far-right insurgents, spearheaded by Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, are leading the nation towards this fate, employing a political approach reminiscent of Trump's attention-grabbing theatrics. Unsettlingly, Gaetz and his fellow MAGA supporters are demonstrating that Trumpism breeds disorder, constantly disregarding legal, political, and constitutional norms—a reminiscent theme from the previous administration. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who himself has shown deference to the former president, has accused Gaetz and his allies of harboring intentions to incite complete destruction.
However, the Republican hardliners who are currently holding the House hostage in their efforts to secure significant spending cuts are not simply exhibiting political opportunism. In fact, their actions reveal a deeper facet of Trumpism that extends beyond opportunistic tendencies. It is worth noting that the GOP only holds a slim majority in the House following midterm elections in which voters expressed hesitation in fully trusting the party. Meanwhile, Democrats maintain control over the White House and the Senate. Consequently, the extremists in the House, by attempting to wield power that they did not legitimately win, are essentially rejecting the fundamental principles of American democratic governance. The dispersal of power across multiple institutions is intended to facilitate gradual and democratic change, rather than enabling the sudden, radical, and disruptive absolutism that is being pursued by Trumpism.