Demystifying the 2024 US Presidential Primaries

Before Americans vote for a president in November, they participate in a series of primaries and caucuses to select the candidates.

This process has changed over time and continues to change today.

Heres what to know:

What is a primary?

Its an election to select candidates, usually for a particular political party, to appear on the general election ballot.

Who is running in the primaries?

As the sitting president, Joe Biden is seeking reelection, making him the incumbent candidate for the Democrats. While a few Democrats, such as Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author Marianne Williamson, are challenging him in the primaries, they have not gained significant support in opinion polls.

Republicans have consistently viewed former President Donald Trump as the top contender, polling higher than the remaining five candidates in the race. Despite losing the last election, Trump still holds the influence of an incumbent due to his former presidential status. This marks the first significant attempt by a former president to secure the nomination of his party since Teddy Roosevelt's unsuccessful campaign in 1912.

Who can vote in a presidential primary?

Two prominent options have emerged among anti-Trump Republicans: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Haley has shown stronger polling in New Hampshire, while DeSantis has been focusing on Iowa. Meanwhile, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson have encountered difficulties in gaining support.

The process varies from state to state. Generally, primaries are held in polling places similar to regular elections. However, some states hold "open primaries" allowing any registered voter to participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary. On the other hand, "closed primaries" in other states only permit registered members of a specific political party, usually Republicans or Democrats, to vote in their party's primary.

Others offer voting day registration, which essentially opens the primaries to most registered voters.

When do the presidential primaries occur?

The initial event on the presidential primary schedule is January 15, but it's not a traditional primary. In Iowa, Republican Party members participate in caucuses where they listen to speeches from campaign supporters and then cast their votes for their chosen candidate. Unlike regular elections in other states, these caucuses are organized by state parties and have a different format.

The Democrats will convene in Iowa on that day, with their presidential vote conducted by mail until March 5th. In certain states, presidential primaries occur on one date, while primaries for other offices are held later in the year. For more details, refer to the complete calendar.

After Iowa, the "first-in-the-nation" primary in New Hampshire is set for January 23, although Democrats are not approving the event. They prefer their first official primary to be on February 3 in South Carolina, a more racially diverse state and where Biden won his first primary in 2020, followed by Nevada's primary on February 6.

The schedule then spreads out further, with Republicans participating in Nevada's caucuses on February 8 and South Carolina's on February 24.

Do the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire usually win the partys nomination?

Certainly not. Despite not winning Iowa or New Hampshire in 2020, Biden's campaign received a fresh start in South Carolina, ultimately leading to his securing the Democratic nomination and the presidency.

In this February 2020 photo, then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during the 100 Club Dinner at SNHIU in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

In 2016, Donald Trump lost Iowa but won New Hampshire, similar to fellow Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.

In 2008, Democrat Barack Obama won the Iowa caucus, but lost the primary in New Hampshire. On the other hand, Republican John McCain lost the Iowa caucus but won the primary in New Hampshire.

The last candidate to win both the Iowa caucus and the primary in New Hampshire and go on to win the presidency was Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976, although he technically placed second in Iowa, behind "uncommitted."

If multiple candidates win in party primaries in different states, how is the ultimate presidential candidate determined?

Voters cast ballots for candidates, but theyre really selecting delegates for the party conventions, which take place over the summer.

Delegates can be apportioned through a winner-take-all system, in which the top candidate in a state's primary receives all of that state's delegates, or through proportional apportionment based on the primary election results. Some states have thresholds, where any candidate who receives over a certain percentage of the vote, such as 20%, is entitled to delegates. Currently, the Democratic Party apportions all of their delegates proportionally.

When will we know which candidate has enough delegates to be the partys nominee?

The Republican rules for this year stipulate that states holding primaries and caucuses before March 15 must allocate delegates proportionally. Meanwhile, states with primaries and caucuses after March 15 have the option to implement a winner-take-all format.

Let's see how the primaries unfold. Keep a close watch on Super Tuesday, which falls on March 5. Although there may not be sufficient delegates to secure the nomination, it will be the night with the highest number of delegates, with Republicans in 16 states and territories casting their votes for president.

It might take until May or June for one candidate to secure enough votes to win his or her partys nomination. The last presidential primaries occur on June 4.

What happens if no candidate gets a majority of delegates in primaries?

Most delegates are expected to be "bound" or "pledged" to a specific candidate before the convention. A small number of Republican delegates in some states and territories are "unbound," meaning they can support any candidate at the start of the convention.

Democratic Party has unpledged delegates, also known as party bigwigs, who do not participate in the initial round of voting during the convention. However, if necessary, they may have an impact on the outcome. If no candidate receives a clear majority of votes from the delegates, subsequent rounds of voting take place. During these rounds, the bound delegates are released and become unbound, allowing them to ultimately choose the nominee. This process is commonly referred to as a "brokered convention."

When we say this is rare, we mean it hasnt happened since 1952.

In July 2016, Donald Trump and Mike Pence, then-Republican candidates for president and vice president, respectively, are seen here acknowledging the crowd at the conclusion of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

How did this process come about?

It evolved over the course of the countrys history. It used to be congressional delegations who would select presidential candidates.

In 1832, Andrew Jackson won the White House in the first election with political conventions for party members, which were held by the short-lived Anti-Masonic Party. The shift toward prioritizing primary elections and enhancing democracy started after the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, when party leaders chose then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey over anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy, leading to violence. (Humphrey ultimately lost to Richard Nixon.)

Where and when are the 2024 conventions?

The Republican National Convention runs July 15-18 in Milwaukee.

The Democratic National Convention runs August 19-22 in Chicago.

Are there primaries that are not so focused on political parties?

Yes, except not for the presidential office.

Several states are now trying out nonpartisan primaries, in which all voters and candidates participate in a single primary election. The top finishers, regardless of their party affiliation, then compete on Election Day.

Nonpartisan primaries, which are used in statewide races for Senate and governor as well as House races, are not utilized in presidential elections. California, Nebraska, and Washington employ the top-two system, while Alaska has a top-four system.

Will there be presidential candidates from third parties?

Louisiana utilizes "jungle primaries," where all candidates for local, state, or federal office appear on the Election Day ballot. If no candidate receives a majority, the top-two finishers proceed to a runoff election.

The Green Party is expected to have a presidential candidate on the ballot in most states, and the Libertarian Party is aiming to be on the ballot in all 50 states. Both parties will choose their nominees at their individual conventions. However, the last time a third-party or independent candidate received electoral votes in a general election was in 1968.