The Impact of the Ukraine Conflict on Sino-Russian Relations

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As countries imposed sanctions on Russia following Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Xi Jinping remained a strong ally of the Russian president.

The Chinese leader, who previously announced a strong partnership with Russia, is now welcoming Putin to China for a two-day state visit. This will be their fourth face-to-face meeting since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The ongoing war has brought Xi and Putin closer, leading to a significant increase in trade between their countries. Last year, Russia boosted its imports of key commodities from China, while Chinese buyers took advantage of discounted Russian fuel.

The United States has raised concerns about Chinese exports of products such as machine tools and microelectronics, which they believe are helping Russia strengthen its defense industrial base for the war in Ukraine. Official data supports these claims, showing significant increases in related goods.

China has defended its trade relationship with Russia, stating that it is a normal part of their bilateral relations. Additionally, China insists on maintaining a neutral stance on the war and asserts that its only role is to work towards peace.

Here’s how the two sides have upgraded their ties since February 2022.

Sanctions drive economies closer

Many countries, including the European Union, the US, and their allies, have imposed sanctions on Russian entities and trade to try to weaken the country. These sanctions aim to limit Russia's revenue from key exports, such as fuel, and restrict its access to military technologies and goods.

Despite the efforts to isolate Putin's government and reduce its resources for war, Russia's economy surprised many by growing 3.6% in 2023, as reported by the International Monetary Fund. This growth came after a period of economic contraction in 2022, as stated by Russian state media.

The sanctions imposed on Russia have led to a significant change in its trading partners. China has become a crucial economic lifeline for Russia, strengthening their trade relationship. In the previous year, the two countries achieved $240 billion in bilateral trade, surpassing the target of exceeding $200 billion by 2024. This achievement was praised by both President Putin and President Xi.

As a result of this growing partnership, China has now become Russia's top trading partner. President Putin announced this development last year, with his presidential aide confirming to Russian state media that China had overtaken the EU to claim the top spot.

As the EU reduced purchases of Russian fuel and restricted exports of various goods, China increased its exports of industrial and commercial products to Russia. This included vehicles, machinery, home appliances, as revealed by data and official statements.

Official Chinese trade data shows that Russia has become China's primary oil supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia. Besides China, India has also capitalized on Russia's search for new markets for its fuel by increasing imports.

Governments warn against support for Russia’s war effort

The wartime surge in trade, and growing purchases of oil, have sparked criticism in the West that China was helping to fund Russia’s war.

Western governments and independent analysts are concerned about the increase in imports of dual-use goods that could have military applications.

In recent weeks, White House officials have addressed China about their alleged significant support for Russia's defense industry. They point to exports such as semiconductors, materials, and machine tools that they believe are helping Russia boost its production of tanks, munitions, and armored vehicles.

During a recent trip to Beijing, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cautioned Chinese leaders about the need to take action if Beijing does not address the issue.

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also raised concerns about the supply of dual-use goods to Russia during Xi's visit to France. Von der Leyen emphasized the importance of making more efforts to prevent these goods from reaching the battlefield.

Beijing has criticized the US for making baseless accusations about the trade relationship between China and Russia. However, there are indications that China might be reducing its imports to Russia, as shown by the decrease in China's exports to Russia in March and April compared to the same months in 2023, according to official Chinese customs data.

Putin and Xi share a close friendship at the highest level.

Xi and Putin's bond seems to have grown stronger as they both extended their rule by revising term limits in recent years. Despite the ongoing war, Putin's visits abroad have decreased, but his recent trip to China marks his second visit since the conflict started and the fourth face-to-face meeting between the two leaders during this period.

Xi has had limited interactions with world leaders recently. He made a single phone call to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and met US President Joe Biden twice in person at international summits since Biden took office in 2021.

Xi and Putin have a history of marking important moments together. This week, Putin made his first international visit since his re-election in March. This visit mirrors Xi's state visit to Russia in March 2023, which was his first trip abroad after beginning a groundbreaking third term as president.

Editor's P/S:

The article highlights the complex and evolving relationship between China and Russia amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. While China has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, its trade partnership with Russia has flourished, with China becoming Russia's top trading partner. This surge in trade has raised concerns in the West, with accusations that China is indirectly supporting Russia's war effort by providing it with dual-use goods.

Despite these concerns, China insists on maintaining its economic ties with Russia and has criticized the US for making baseless accusations. However, there are indications that China may be reducing its exports to Russia, potentially in response to international pressure. The close personal bond between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin further complicates the situation, as they have both extended their rule and share a common goal of challenging Western dominance. As the war continues, it remains to be seen how this relationship will evolve and what impact it will have on the global landscape.