Ukraine's President and Military Chief Reflect on Challenges and Urge Continued Resolve in Ongoing Conflict
Ukraine's president and military chief express weariness and warn of a prolonged attritional war, while acknowledging a stalemate on the front Struggling to rally allies, President Zelensky faces an uphill battle to maintain faith in Ukraine's prospects
Two articles that were published this week paint a somber picture of Ukraine's prospects in its conflict with Russia. According to the Ukrainian military's commander in chief, the battlefield has reached a state of stalemate, indicating the likelihood of a long attritional war that favors Moscow. In addition, another article portrays Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as fatigued from the constant effort of persuading and seeking support from allies to maintain their faith in Ukraine.
In a lengthy essay and interview with the Economist, Ukraine's military chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, explains that they have reached a technological level similar to that of the First World War, resulting in a stalemate.
He admits that there won't be any remarkable and beautiful breakthroughs, rather a balance of overwhelming losses and destruction.
Simultaneously, during an interview with TIME's Simon Shuster, Zelensky affirms, "No one believes in our triumph as much as I do. No one." However, he acknowledges that implanting these beliefs in Ukraine's allies requires all of one's strength and energy.
Shuster, who has had long-standing access to the president's inner circle, depicts Zelensky as fatigued and occasionally irritable, expressing concern about the declining support from allies.
"The weariness regarding the war spreads like a wave. It's evident in the United States, as well as in Europe," Zelensky's statement goes.
However, Zelensky is obsessed with winning and refuses to consider a ceasefire or engage in negotiations. He explains to TIME, "Leaving this wound open for future generations is not an option for us."
After five months of Ukraine's highly anticipated counteroffensive, Zelensky's concerns and Zaluzhny's analysis become particularly relevant as global attention shifts to the Middle East. There is growing concern that Israel's conflict with Hamas could escalate into a larger regional war.
Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, attends a ceremony in Kyiv, Ukraine, commemorating Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, 2023. On this day, Ukraine celebrates the declaration of independence from the USSR in 1991.
Yan Dobronosov/Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images
Zelensky himself admits to TIME magazine: "Naturally, we suffer from the happenings in the Middle East. Lives are being lost, and the assistance of the world is crucial to saving lives..."
Stalemate on the front
Since the summer, Ukrainian forces have only managed to seize a small portion of land, while Russia still maintains control over almost 20% of the country. In certain regions, like Avdiivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk, as well as near Kupyansk in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians find themselves in a defensive position while Russia continuously supplies weapons and troops to the ongoing battle.
According to Zaluzhny, the Kremlin appears to be unaware of the significant losses suffered by the Russian army, with estimates exceeding 100,000 men. Recently, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov claimed that Russia lost 4,000 men solely in the vicinity of Avdviika. Based on open-source imagery, it is believed that the Russians may have also lost around 200 tanks and other vehicles in that particular battle.
Zaluzhny expresses surprise and confusion that despite the supply of weapons to Ukraine by its Western allies and the mobilization of additional brigades, there has been little noticeable impact. Changes in leadership and the repositioning of divisions have failed to make any difference, he claims.
"We should have been able to reach Crimea, engage in combat, return, and make subsequent trips in a span of four months," he remarks. However, our attempts to breach the heavily fortified Russian defenses have been futile. Even if we manage to overcome dense minefields, the Russians swiftly restore them using remote mine-laying techniques, often at significant expense."
Ukraine's air inferiority has hindered progress on the ground, and Zaluzhny cautions that by the end of 2023, Russia could potentially deploy new attack squadrons. Reflecting on the situation, the commander in chief refers to an old Soviet analysis of the First World War called "Breaching Fortified Defense Lines," pointing out the notable similarities with the present time.
"I came to the realization that this is precisely our current situation. Similar to the past, our technological advancements have placed both us and our adversaries in a state of bewilderment."
The impasse can be attributed to the extensive utilization of drones and other surveillance technologies. Zaluzhny narrates the devastation occurring in Avdiivka, where Russia deploys numerous tanks with the objective of gaining a mere few hundred meters."
We have complete visibility into the enemy's actions, and vice versa. Additionally, it is recognized that the Russian military has effectively learned and adjusted. They have made advancements in logistics, increased the production of new equipment, and significantly neutralized Ukraine's advantage in precise weaponry through their electronic warfare capabilities.
Zaluzhny candidly admits that Russia "will maintain an advantage in armaments, equipment, rockets, and ammunition for some time."
Kyivs wish list
Ukraine's military chief acknowledges the need for a significant change to overcome the relentless war and the looming winter. This recognition not only has a demoralizing effect on Ukrainian troops but also poses a threat to civilian life, particularly if Russia decides to resume targeting energy infrastructure.
In his essay, Zaluzhny outlines five crucial requirements for progress. These are not quick fixes, but rather demanding tasks that require renewed commitment from allies. The requirements include gaining air superiority to support ground operations, breaching Russian mine barriers, enhancing counterbattery combat effectiveness (such as targeting Russian artillery), establishing and training reserves, and strengthening electronic warfare capabilities.
He suggests that Ukraine should carry out extensive attacks "in a unified combat formation," utilizing deceptive tactics and combat drones to overwhelm the Russian air defense systems.
"Moreover, electronic warfare systems are crucial for gaining an advantage in drone warfare," he emphasizes, highlighting that the Russians possess around 60 distinct systems.
The sun sets over a destroyed building in Izyum, Ukraine.
"We cannot win this war using outdated methods and the weapons from the previous generation," Zaluzhny expressed to the Economist. "Inevitably, we will come to realize that we lack the necessary manpower to continue fighting."
"Our ability to train reserves on our own territory is restricted due to the enemy's capacity to launch missile and air strikes on our training centers and grounds. In contrast, the Kremlin appears to be grimly content with the stalemate, believing that their larger military force will eventually crush Ukrainian morale."
In response to Zaluzhny's comments, spokesperson Dmitri Peskov stated on Thursday that Russia is persistently carrying out the special military operation and is determined to achieve all set objectives.
Additionally, Moscow is probably enjoying the changing sentiment towards Russia in the United States, both in Congress and among the general public.
In a recent Gallup poll, it was found that 41 percent of Americans believe that the US is excessively involved in assisting Ukraine, a significant increase from 29% just five months ago. The percentage of Republicans who hold this view stands at 55%, particularly as the 2024 election approaches.
Furthermore, the impasse on Capitol Hill has caused a disruption in the provision of military assistance to Ukraine. The Biden administration's attempt to connect a year's worth of aid, totaling $24 billion, to other funding priorities like aid to Israel has encountered significant opposition from Republicans in Congress.
A number of Republican senators have raised concerns about Zaluzhny's remarks, questioning Ukraine's strategy in the war. Senator J.D. Vance, who has been against providing additional aid to Ukraine, stated on Thursday: "It was inevitable that Russia would gain control over certain Ukrainian territory and a settlement would need to be negotiated."
During Zelensky's recent visit to Washington in September, he reveals to TIME that certain members of Congress directly asked him: "If we withhold aid from you, what will happen?" Our response is simple, we will suffer defeat if aid is not provided.
Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have repeatedly cautioned that the quantity and nature of assistance provided by Western allies, along with the perceived detrimental delays in its delivery, have allowed Ukraine to sustain its battle but fall short of triumph.
According to Shuster, an aide to the Ukrainian president disclosed that Zelensky holds a sense of betrayal towards his Western allies. He believes that they have abandoned him without the necessary resources to secure victory in the war, providing only the means to endure it.
US-made ATACMs, a longer-range tactical missile, are finally being utilized to target locations far beyond the front lines. It is unlikely that F-16 fighter jets will be deployed before next spring, at the earliest.
For numerous Ukrainian officials, the limited pipeline has provided Russia with the opportunity to stabilize a situation that, a year ago, posed a risk of unraveling. This followed the sudden Ukrainian advance through Kharkiv and the subsequent Russian withdrawal from a significant portion of Kherson.
Crimea is considered the Achilles heel of Russia, according to Zaluzhny. This is due to its significance as President Vladimir Putin's prized possession and its role as a crucial channel for supplying Russian troops and housing the Black Sea fleet.
In recent months, the Ukrainian military has intensified its assaults on Russia's defense infrastructure in Crimea, including the valuable bridge connecting to Russia, employing missiles, drones, and acts of sabotage. Zaluzhny points out that just this week, an ATACM was used for the first time against a target in Crimea. However, the land forces of Ukraine are still a considerable distance away from the peninsula.
Zaluzhny's primary concern currently lies in the possibility of enduring prolonged trench warfare against an adversary that possesses triple the manpower. He notes that the greatest danger associated with such an attritional trench war is its potential to persist for years and gradually erode the strength of the Ukrainian state.
Zaluzhny describes Russia as "a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us⦠the most expensive thing we have is our people."
