EU fails to meet 1 million-round ammunition target for Ukraine, Germany acknowledges as conflict persists
EU's 1 million-round ammunition target for Ukraine faces uncertainty, warns Germany amid ongoing war with Russia Winter adds urgency to supply efforts
Germany's defense minister, Boris Pistorius, declared on Tuesday that the European Union's objective of providing Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition is improbable to be accomplished. This comes as Kyiv is engaged in a prolonged war against Russia and with winter on the horizon. Pistorius made this statement prior to an EU defense ministers meeting in Brussels, mentioning that member states are collaborating with the industry to increase production.
In March, EU member states agreed to deliver 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine within a 12-month period. Pistorius issued a warning the day after Josep Borrell, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, stated that the bloc might not meet its ammunition production targets for supplying Kyiv by year-end. However, Borrell mentioned ongoing efforts to boost production capacity.
In the immediate future, armies have been requested to supply ammunition from their current inventory, totaling around 300,000 rounds, according to Borrell. Additionally, Borrell mentioned that various contracts have been granted for ammunition production, but the delivery schedule will depend on the speed of manufacturing in the factories.
The EU member states are working to ramp up production but are likely to miss a key target, said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, pictured in June.
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Ringing the bells
Both Ukraine and Russia are in dire need of replenishing large quantities of ammunition as the relentless war of attrition persists in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. Recent reports from South Korea's National Intelligence Service reveal that North Korea has been exporting over 1 million shells to Russia since the beginning of August. In addition, the United States has been increasing its ammunition production to support Ukraine. Urgently, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, emphasized the urgent need for the European Union to enhance its capacity to provide ammunition to the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine has expressed significant concern over the supply of ammunition from the EU, according to statements made on national television on Monday night. The lack of political will in the EU to support Ukraine is not believed to be the reason for these issues, but rather the poor state of Ukraine's defense industry. This industry is currently unable to produce an adequate number of shells and maintain sufficient warehouse capacity, as well as secure foreign contracts. Since the conflict in Ukraine began, Western allies have been openly worried about their ability to meet Kyiv's ammunition requirements and replenish dwindling stocks in a timely manner.
After the Cold War ended, Western countries shifted their focus towards modern weaponry, causing a decline in the manufacturing of conventional ammunition. There was a general belief that another large-scale land war in Europe was highly unlikely. Nick Witney, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, explained that the lack of immediate threats and financial pressures on European governments resulted in a strategy of prioritizing superficial appearances while neglecting to replenish ammunition stockpiles.
The approach of "dressing the shop window" allows us to grasp the reason behind the low ammunition stocks in European countries at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. However, it fails to provide an explanation for the lack of significant improvement in the subsequent year.
According to experts, there are several factors that contribute to this. "There are limitations to rapidly increasing production. Substantial enhancements to output will be costly and require time for implementation," stated Tom Waldwyn, a research associate for defense procurement at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with CNN in February.
According to Waldwyn, it will be challenging to meet a sudden increase in demand in the short to medium term because private companies accountable to shareholders will not retain staff and maintain large production capacities for equipment that is not being purchased.
