Unmasking Putin's Sinister Motives: The Hidden Agenda Behind the Pursuit of a Forever War

Author's Note: Mark Galeotti is the executive director of Mayak Intelligence consultancy and an honorary professor at University College London. He is the author of several books on Russian history, including "Putin's Wars: from Chechnya to Ukraine." The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely his. For more perspectives, visit CNN Opinion.

When Westerners refer to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as a "forever war," they typically perceive it as negative. However, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is likely a desired outcome.

Last week, Putin declared September 30th as an official holiday called the Day of Reunification of New Regions with the Russian Federation. This holiday commemorates the one-year anniversary of the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine, despite the fact that most of these regions were not under Russian control at that time. The declaration allowed Putin to emphasize his current obsessions, proclaiming this struggle as "for the Motherland, for our sovereignty, spiritual values, unity, and victory."

Mark Galeotti

Mayak Intelligence Ltd

In his perspective, this is not merely a conflict with Ukraine but a larger global struggle against the West, with Ukraine serving as just one of the battlegrounds, albeit a particularly violent and obvious one. During his speech at the 2023 Victory Day parade, which is typically a grandiose account of achievements, Putin adopted a somber tone and declared that "our homeland is facing a genuine war."

He evoked the memory of the Great Patriotic War, the Russian term for the Second World War, and cautioned that "civilization is once again at a critical crossroads" due to the determined efforts of "Western globalist elites" to "eliminate and annihilate" Russia.

While this could be seen as an excuse for the failure of his "special military operation" in Ukraine, which initially aimed to establish a puppet regime but instead resulted in a devastating war and significant loss for the Russian military, it holds a deeper significance. When Putin refers to it as a "decisive battle for the fate of our Motherland," as he did during this year's Victory Day parade, it is evident that he genuinely believes in this cause and it reflects the underlying ideology of his regime. Rather than providing a clear vision for the future or offering any genuine hope, he simply emphasizes that the nation is engaged in an ongoing struggle with the hostile West, with no foreseeable resolution in sight.

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On October 1, 2023, Robert Fico, leader of the Smer-SSD party and former Prime Minister of Slovakia, celebrated his victory in the general elections at the party's headquarters in Bratislava. The election results revealed that a populist party, critical of the EU and NATO and advocating for the cessation of military aid to Ukraine, emerged as the winner in Slovakia. The Smer-SD party, led by Robert Fico, secured 23.3 percent of the votes, surpassing the centrist Progressive Slovakia, which obtained 17 percent of the votes. Almost all votes have been counted. (Photo by TOMAS BENEDIKOVIC / AFP) (Photo by TOMAS BENEDIKOVIC/AFP via Getty Images)

Tomas Benedikovic/AFP/Getty Images

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This may sound bleak, but Putin sees some advantages in this situation. Undoubtedly, the war is a disaster for Russia. According to US government sources, Russia's casualties may include 120,000 soldiers killed and 170,000-180,000 wounded.

Even after peace is established and sanctions are lifted, the economic damage will take years to recover from. Additionally, the repercussions on already underfunded public services, considering the significant number of physically and psychologically affected veterans, will persist for at least the next generation.

But it also presents an opportunity. As "late Putinism" increasingly revolves around the perpetual war, it justifies and even necessitates the tightening grip of repression that Putin relies on to maintain control of the nation. Any form of dissent, no matter how mild, is labeled as treason, and the reallocation of resources to the defense sector becomes imperative. In fact, the latest budget outlines a staggering 70% increase in military expenditure next year, surpassing the combined spending on health, education, and environmental protection by about threefold.

In the midst of this battle, Putin convinces himself that victory lies in simply not losing. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has successfully penetrated the first line of Russian defense in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, and has already made significant headway in breaching the second line. Kyiv hopes that even if they can't effectively divide the invading forces, they will be able to shell the road and rail links connecting Crimea with the Russian mainland.

From Putins point of view, talk of a forever war has one final virtue for him  it is demoralising to his enemies.

Mark Galeotti

As winter rains approach, it remains uncertain whether this will be feasible. If not, Moscow will have an opportunity to bolster its defenses, reinforce its troops, and count on a decrease in Western support for Ukraine's ongoing conflict.

The true intentions of Putin are unclear – whether he genuinely believes that Russia can achieve a victory in the Ukrainian situation or simply feels that he must cling to the hope of outlasting his adversaries. Nevertheless, the concept of an enduring war serves a purpose for him: it serves to demoralize his enemies.

The concept of a Ukrainian military victory based on the determination of its soldiers and superior Western-provided equipment is one thing to envision. However, achieving a lasting peace entails bridging a significant gap.

Even if the Ukrainian forces manage to push out every Russian soldier, a feat that would require considerable effort, the front line would merely shift to the national border. Russia retains the capacity to rebuild its forces, deploy drones and missiles on Ukrainian cities, and hinder reconstruction efforts.

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In the meantime, Putin's management of the July rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner's mercenary army, has left members of the elite questioning his ability to effectively handle the system. However, the unexpected and suspicious death of Prigozhin served as a clear message to anyone considering challenging Putin.

Sanctions are impacting Russian defense production, but they are unable to halt its escalation, and the economy is not on the verge of collapse. Despite the casualties, Russian individuals are still willing to volunteer for combat, leading the General Staff to declare that there are no intentions to mobilize reservists again. While wars eventually come to an end, achieving peace seems distant.