Taiwan's Election Results and US-China Relations

Introduction

The results of Taiwan's election have significant implications for US-China relations in the coming years. President-Elect Lai Ching-te's victory signals a continuation of heightened tension with China over the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty. The election has been viewed as a referendum over whether Taiwan should draw nearer to the US or China, making it a key point of interest for global geopolitics.

Taiwan's President-Elect, Lai Ching-te (left), celebrates with his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, during a rally outside the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei on January 13, after winning the presidential election.

Lanhee J. Chen, PhD, a regular contributor to CNN Opinion and the David and Diane Steffy Fellow in American Public Policy Studies, provides valuable insights into the implications of the election results for US-China relations. With his extensive experience in American public policy and participation in the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific at the Hoover Institution, Chen's analysis offers a comprehensive perspective on the impact of Taiwan's election on global dynamics.

Lanhee J. Chen

US Support for Taiwan

The election results signal four more years of efforts to emphasize Taiwan's ties to the US and seek closer cooperation between Taipei and Washington. This commitment to strengthening ties with the US is expected to continue, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election in November. The strong, bipartisan support for Taiwan in the US, reinforced by a coalition of former senior officials who met with President-Elect Lai and Vice-President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim, indicates a sustained focus on Taiwan's strategic importance in US foreign policy.

Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have expressed strong support for Taiwan, with bipartisan efforts in Congress to sell weapons and provide military support to Taiwan. The consensus on supporting Taiwan is one of the few policy issues that transcends party lines, highlighting the significance of Taiwan's position in US foreign policy.

China's Response and Implications

China continues to view Taiwan as an existential issue and has expressed its dissatisfaction with Lai's victory. Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office has reiterated its position that 'Taiwan is China's Taiwan' and dismissed the election result as incapable of changing the pattern of cross-strait relations. The Chinese government is expected to use the period leading up to Lai's inauguration to exert pressure on Taiwan through military activities, disinformation campaigns, and diplomatic isolation.

The Pacific Island nation of Nauru has cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan for a second time.

President-Elect Lai's approach to cross-strait relations, emphasizing the status quo and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with the mainland on mutually agreeable terms, poses a challenge to China's stance. The identity shift among Taiwanese voters, who increasingly view themselves as 'Taiwanese' rather than 'Chinese,' further complicates the prospect of reunification with the mainland. These factors contribute to the ongoing tensions between the US and China, with Taiwan at the center of geopolitical dynamics.