Low expectations met at the Biden-Xi summit: Key takeaways

President Joe Biden's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping south of San Francisco on Wednesday potentially marked a significant turning point in the increasingly strained diplomatic ties between the two nations, which have reached their lowest point in half a century.

But with deliberately low expectations and both sides having strong incentives to declare the meeting as productive, the upbeat mood after four hours of talks was hardly a noteworthy accomplishment. The negotiations were interrupted by a lunch consisting of herbed ricotta ravioli, tarragon roasted chicken, and almond meringue cake.

The US President, Joe Biden, and the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, exchange handshakes during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in Woodside, California, on November 15, 2023.

Biden praises constructive discussions with Xi, achieving agreements on fentanyl and military communication. He remains optimistic about minimizing potential risks arising from the close proximity of American and Chinese forces in the Asia-Pacific region. Biden aims to prevent this situation from escalating into a politically damaging international crisis during his upcoming reelection campaign.

Xi had to reassure his followers in the communist hierarchy that he had effective control over the crucial US relations during a challenging economic period. Additionally, he had to indicate that China now recognizes the importance of reducing tensions with significant global powers, particularly the US, after a tense period.

However, the significant yet gradual advancements made at the Georgian revival-style mansion will not significantly address the fundamental factors that are pushing the US and China towards a more hazardous rivalry.

Stating his approach to Xi as "trust but verify," Biden clarified after the summit that although China and the US have a competitive relationship, his duty is to ensure it remains rational and manageable, avoiding conflict - that is his ultimate focus.

While stating that the world is spacious enough for both the US and China to coexist, Xi cautioned that the United States should not conspire to "suppress or contain" his nation, conveying Beijing's belief that the US intention to compete with its growing competitor is primarily aimed at hindering China's legitimate future.

Thats a disconnect that a single summit had no hope of redressing.

The two leaders are talking again

Re-establishing contacts between the US and Chinese militaries could potentially be the most significant action taken by Biden this year. Biden emphasized the potential consequences of significant misjudgments, stating that such errors could lead to severe complications with China or any other major country.

The potential of US and Chinese naval or air forces stumbling into an incident in the South or East China seas is a major concern for officials and foreign policy analysts. In an effort to restore communication that was severed by China following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last year, the United States has been making efforts for several months.

The Biden administration is deeply concerned about the numerous "unprofessional" operations conducted by Chinese planes and ships near US assets. Recently, a Chinese fighter came dangerously close to a US Air Force B-52 bomber, coming within just 10 feet. A collision between ships or the downing of a US plane could trigger a dangerous escalation, which would be extremely challenging to defuse due to the sensitive political reactions it would provoke in both countries. Resolving and repatriating the crew of a US spy plane that made an emergency landing on Hainan Island after colliding with a Chinese fighter in 2001 required days of intricate diplomacy. Given China's increased assertiveness, nationalism, and power, a similar incident in present times would be even more volatile.

On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperative conference, President Joe Biden addressed the media after his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., on Wednesday, November 15, 2023. This event captured by Doug Mills from The New York Times via AP, Pool.

Doug Mills/Pool/The New York Times/AP

Biden says he still believes Xi Jinping is a dictator

Even during the bleakest days of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union maintained communication to prevent misunderstandings from escalating into catastrophic events. Despite the tensions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high-ranking officials at the Pentagon actively collaborate with Moscow to coordinate their operations in conflict zones like Syria. The absence of such dialogue with China is notably alarming.

Detailed information regarding the newly established military-to-military contacts was not yet available as of Wednesday. However, the effectiveness of these efforts will rely on whether the agreements made by President Xi Jinping are effectively implemented by lower-ranking members of the People's Liberation Army. It should be noted that local incidents or larger crises between the United States and China have the potential to easily undo the limited progress made on Wednesday, as seen previously after Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan or during the incident involving a Chinese spy balloon crossing US airspace earlier this year.

But a lowering of the threat of misjudgments or misunderstandings alone may justify Bidens decision to meet Xi.

Biden balances his job as commander in chief with huge political risks

Biden anticipated that his meeting with Xi would ignite a tumultuous political controversy.

Merely engaging in discussions with China invites allegations that the president is appeasing an adversary. Sen. Jim Risch, the leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, cautioned following the summit's conclusion that Biden had once again jeopardized US national security interests. The senator from Idaho further asserted, "China is not a typical nation – it is a belligerent state. Biden is capitulating to Xi in return for a succession of insignificant working groups and engagement mechanisms."

Republican presidential candidates have criticized Biden for his handling of Beijing, taking advantage of their lack of responsibility for maintaining the world's most crucial diplomatic relationship. They have a motive to distort the complexities of the situation. China bashing has always been present in US presidential elections, going back to Democrat Bill Clinton's victory over Republican President George H.W. Bush in 1992. However, this year the criticism has been particularly intense, with GOP candidates such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suggesting that forceful rhetoric alone would compel China to yield to US power.

Biden faced significant political pressures to make the summit successful while also needing to demonstrate toughness towards Xi.

In his reelection year, he cannot afford to have a conflict with China. The US is already facing challenges with ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Any further turmoil would support the GOP's claims that he is old and weak, echoing Donald Trump's accusations that the world is spinning out of control during Biden's presidency.

It is noteworthy that during his news conference, Biden immediately mentioned a deal with Xi to address the export of precursor chemicals from China, which are contributing to a deadly narcotics crisis in the US. While it is one thing for China to agree to address this issue, the real test lies in its actions. If the agreement is effective, Biden will be credited with saving many lives and will have a strong talking point for his campaign.

Xi faces his own political heat

During his news conference, Biden repeatedly emphasized his directness in dealing with Xi. This is not only a reflection of the strained diplomatic ties but also serves as a safeguard against accusations from the GOP that he is capitulating to China.

Despite being the most influential Chinese leader in years and governing an authoritarian communist regime with no tolerance for opposing voices, Xi is not exempt from political challenges and limitations - a fact often overlooked in the US.

Xi's arrival in San Francisco follows a period of notable instability in Chinese politics, as he recently dismissed both his foreign and defense ministers. Additionally, China's economy is grappling with various crises, such as a deteriorating housing market and increasing levels of unemployment among the younger population.

"There was a strong motivation for the meeting to be successful, as China's economy is experiencing a slowdown and facing numerous challenges," said Sue Mi Terry, an expert in national security who previously served in the National Security Council under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and is currently affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She shared her insights with CNN's Erin Burnett.

Xi Jinping needs to address the decline in foreign investments at a time when many American executives and academics question the potential risks to their personal safety if they were to visit China due to the escalating tensions between the two nations. This helps to explain the recent charm offensive in the Chinese media leading up to the summit, as well as Xi's meetings with US business leaders in San Francisco and his dinner with American acquaintances he made during a past trip to Iowa when he held a junior provincial position.

The upcoming year will be a challenging one for US-China relations, not only due to the American presidential election but also because of the Taiwanese election in January. Xi sought confirmation from Biden that the US still supports the "One China" policy, which acknowledges Taiwan as part of China but does not fully recognize Beijing's claim to the self-governed island. Biden assured him that he would not alter this stance, while also stating that he would defend Taiwan if China were to attack, which has ruffled feathers in Beijing. During the summit, Xi emphasized China's desire for peaceful reunification but also highlighted that circumstances may require the use of force, stating the need for resolution in general.

The fundamentals of the relationship wont change

Expectations were low heading into the summit. And they were met.

Despite both sides' desire to avoid a catastrophic clash, it seems inevitable that US-China relations will move towards confrontation. This situation requires continuous management to prevent it from escalating into an outright conflict. According to Washington, China is the sole nation capable of surpassing the US as the leading global power. In President Biden's official national security strategy, a document mandated by Congress, it states that China is "the sole competitor with the intention to reshape the international order and possesses an ever-growing economic, diplomatic, military, and technological strength to achieve this goal."

Chinese leaders perceive US actions aimed at countering Beijing's aspirations to become the dominant force in the Indo-Pacific and worldwide as deliberate efforts to hinder its rightful progress and destiny. An analysis of Xi's speeches by The New York Times revealed that while he reassures US presidents of his eagerness to find areas of cooperation and ease geopolitical tensions, he speaks domestically of an inevitable rivalry with the US, viewing it with fatalistic suspicion. During his recent remarks, Xi seemed to suggest that the strains in the relationship were a consequence of US attitudes, stating that while conflict and confrontation would have severe consequences for both sides, it would be unrealistic for one side to try to change the other. This sentiment was reiterated in official Chinese media, emphasizing that it is unrealistic to expect either country to change each other. One interpretation is that Xi is cautioning against US attempts to moderate Chinese behavior, whether internally on matters such as human rights or business, or externally in its regional and global influence.

Biden's viewpoint is accurate. It is crucial for the leaders of the two most powerful nations in the world to have a means of communication in case conflict arises. Both Trump and Biden have argued that they possess unique understandings and connections with Xi. But does the Chinese leader reciprocate those sentiments? While Washington often argues that despite their irreconcilable strategic goals, the US and China can collaborate on issues like climate change or global security, Beijing is less publicly enthusiastic about this notion.

At present, there seems to be a benefit for Xi in slightly opening up to the US. However, the factors pushing the nations towards more conflict are vast and unstable. Merely meeting minimal expectations at a reasonably successful summit will not alter the core dynamics of their competitive relationship.