Challenges Hindering Biden's Path in Meeting Xi

Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She contributes weekly opinions to CNN, The Washington Post, and World Politics Review. The upcoming meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in California on Wednesday is significant as it will be the first time they have met face-to-face in exactly one year and one day, considering the two nations' nuclear capabilities.

Frida Ghitis

Since that day in Bali, Indonesia, last year, a significant number of events have unfolded. The pair now faces an extensive and pressing agenda, encompassing two ongoing conflicts, a rapidly warming planet, and numerous other extremely volatile matters.

The idea behind the summit, known as Bidens hope, is for the two leaders to responsibly handle the competition between their countries. As great powers, they aim to come together as stewards of a perilous world and collaborate to prevent it from spiraling out of control.

Despite the pursuit of more realistic and attainable objectives, the ultimate goal encounters a formidable challenge in practice.

Biden's hope is for Xi's assistance in mitigating ongoing global conflicts and preventing the eruption of new ones. However, Xi views the current open disputes as detrimental to the world order led by the United States. Consequently, I believe he perceives these conflicts as advantageous to his objective of witnessing the decline of the US as the predominant global superpower, thereby facilitating China's emergence as an alternative.

Just like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi is striving to reinstate China's historical glory and influence. As China ascends in both regional and global prominence, Xi aims to establish international recognition for his autocratic style of governance, thereby contesting the dominance of the US.

In reality, soon after assuming office over ten years ago, he covertly initiated a nationwide campaign against what he deemed as "Western" values, including democracy, human rights, and freedom of the press.

US First Lady Melania Trump (left) and US President Donald Trump (third from the left) are seen posing with Chinese President Xi Jinping (second from the right) and his wife Peng Liyuan (right) upon their arrival to the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, on April 6, 2017. (Photo by JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Six years on from cake at Mar-a-Lago, Chinas Xi returns to a much warier US

On his inaugural visit to the US in 2015, Xi stood alongside then-President Barack Obama, reassuring the world of his commitment to peaceful development and cooperative relations with all nations. However, just two months later, he privately conveyed to his Central Military Commission that rhetoric alone was insufficient, emphasizing the need for strength and the ability to wield it. Consequently, this shift in mindset led to the aggressive militarization of disputed areas.

The contrasting stances of Washington and Beijing in conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Hamas-Israel conflict are no mere coincidence. While China occasionally attempts to maintain a facade of impartiality, there is little doubt that it aligns itself with Russia. Furthermore, in the recent Hamas attack on Israel, Beijing chose not to condemn it, even prior to Israel initiating its counteroffensive.

China also maintains robust relations with Iran, whose regime actively supports the arming of Russia, and continues to be the primary supporter of Hamas.

By maintaining such close ties with the Kremlin and with the sponsors of Hamas in Tehran, China potentially has the opportunity to exert influence and contribute to the resolution of these conflicts, both of which are directed against allies of the United States. At a certain point, China may leverage this influence to demonstrate its diplomatic prowess and position itself as a peace facilitator (an approach that, according to polls, has been unsuccessful in the United States).

It seems unlikely that Moscow can be separated from Beijing, despite its appealing nature. As long as there is no immediate threat of substantial conflict escalation, it's probable that behind Xi's half-smile, he finds some satisfaction in witnessing the United States supporting two nations involved in combat.

This does not imply that the meeting on Wednesday is without purpose or will have no accomplishments. The summit holds significance and will yield certain outcomes.

It is probable that the California summit will reinstate the military-to-military communications, which were terminated by Beijing last year following the visit of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. This action caused a major disturbance in diplomatic relations and disrupted the crucial communications between the military forces.

The last time China's President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden met in person was on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Indonesia, November 14, 2022.

Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Given Chinas increasingly aggressive military moves in disputed areas of the South China Sea, those links are indispensable to prevent an unintentional clash.

Biden is anticipated to address several areas of tension during his discussion with Xi, including China's persistent threats and intimidation towards Taiwan, a self-governed democratic island that Xi aims to bring under Beijing's control. Additionally, he may raise concerns about Beijing's potential interference in Taiwan's upcoming elections as well as the United States' stance on these matters. White House officials have asserted that Biden will offer explicit clarity to Xi on the US positions concerning Taiwan and Russia's conflict with Ukraine.

Biden is expected to address Iran's ongoing backing of Hamas and other violent groups in the Middle East, emphasizing that the United States will not tolerate a further escalation of the war. Biden has warned Iran against escalating the conflict, reinforcing this message by sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region.

China is well-placed to convey this message to Tehran. Regardless of Beijing's stance on the Gaza war, it is unlikely that China wants to see a larger conflict that could disrupt shipping routes and trade relationships.

There are multiple areas with room for advancement. Both nations share an interest in combatting climate change and can collaborate without controversy to halt the trafficking of Fentanyl and its precursor chemicals from China to the United States.

Furthermore, the global economy is a key concern. The leaders of the world's two largest economies are determined to prevent a global recession. The Biden administration has actively engaged with China to ensure that a complete separation of the two economies is not sought, although steps are being taken to mitigate risks in the economic relationship, prompted by the realization of excessive dependence on Chinese imports.

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China's economy is experiencing a notable deceleration after years of rapid growth. Previous leaders prioritized economic expansion and they achieved remarkable success in this regard. However, for the first time since Mao Zedong, China now has a leader who is willing to compromise economic growth for the sake of political and ideological goals.

However, it is important to recognize that there are limits to how much Xi can minimize the importance of economic growth. The unspoken agreement between the ruling Chinese Communist Party and the people of China states that the government must ensure prosperity, while citizens give up their political freedoms. Despite appearing to have a strong hold on power, completely disregarding the economy would be too risky for the Chinese leader.

One major obstacle to a significant summit is Xi's belief that many global issues are primarily the responsibility of the United States, thus presenting opportunities for China. Nevertheless, it is probable that Biden and Xi will achieve some progress in a crucial and necessary meeting.