President Biden's highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place in the San Francisco Bay Area next Wednesday. This meeting will serve as a test to see if the two leaders can improve the deteriorating relationship between their countries amidst global turbulence.
It is important to note that this meeting is not expected to result in a significant improvement in the bilateral relationship. However, the fact that the meeting is happening at all is seen as a positive sign by White House aides, considering the months of friction between the two countries. The leaders aim to establish a "framework" for effectively managing competitive relations, addressing misunderstandings, and avoiding unexpected developments.
However, according to officials, Biden's aides are approaching the summit with practical expectations and do not foresee a lengthy list of outcomes afterwards.
With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, Biden is determined to avoid a new global crisis during his administration. Restoring some stability to the Washington-Beijing relationship has been one of his key foreign policy objectives, despite escalating tensions worldwide.
There are numerous issues anticipated to arise during the talks. These include the restoration of military-to-military communication between the two countries, which is a key objective for Biden. Another topic on the agenda is the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine. Additionally, there will be discussions on potential areas of cooperation such as climate change and countering narcotics trafficking. However, fundamental disagreements over human rights issues, military escalation in the South China Sea, and the situation around Taiwan remain a major point of contention.
Taking place amidst a large gathering of Pacific leaders in California, the meeting has been in the works for several months and has required extensive preparations from both sides. American officials are expecting China to officially announce Xi's participation on Friday morning, Eastern Time. The talks are expected to be comprehensive, spanning across multiple working sessions.
Throughout their tenure as vice presidents, Biden and Xi had fostered a close and seemingly affectionate bond. However, their leadership has resulted in a significant decline in bilateral relations between the United States and China, reaching one of the lowest points in recent history.
The primary contentious issues exacerbating this situation revolve around Taiwan, a self-governed island that China's Communist Party asserts as its rightful territory, even expressing willingness to use force if deemed necessary. With Taiwan scheduled to hold an election in January, tensions surrounding its status have escalated.
The strained relationship between the US and China has been further exacerbated by the new restrictions imposed by Biden on the export of advanced technology to China, citing national security concerns. Furthermore, the US has exerted pressure on China to play a more constructive role in resolving conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine disputes, urging the country to increase its engagement on the global stage.
According to Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, both the United States and China do not anticipate significant improvements or a reset in their relationship during the meeting between President Biden and President Xi. The primary focus of the meeting will be on managing and stabilizing bilateral relations, enhancing communication, and preventing misunderstandings before they arise.
Biden and Xi will meet in person for the second time in three years during Wednesday's summit. Their last face-to-face meeting occurred a year ago at the G20 summit in Bali, aiming to set a foundation for the relationship amidst increased economic and military tension.
Following the summit in Bali, there seemed to be progress towards more frequent discussions between the two parties. However, hopes for improving relations were dashed several months later due to a dispute involving a suspected Chinese spy balloon.
After a visit to Taiwan last summer by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Beijing suddenly ceased communication with the US military. This raised concerns among American officials regarding potential misunderstandings or errors in the highly contested regions of the South China Sea or near Taiwan.
Efforts to reinstate military channels have been slow, despite the continuous visits of various Biden administration officials to Beijing. These officials include Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
Signs of improvement have surfaced in recent weeks, fostering hope among American officials that the summit will pave the way for the resumption of military communication. During his visit to Washington last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in productive meetings with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and President Biden at the White House.
In preparation for next week's meeting, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has extended an invitation to Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is renowned as the country's "economic tsar," for a two-day meeting commencing on Thursday.
Additionally, a senior official from China expressed willingness to enhance relations with Washington this week. Vice President Han Zheng stated during a Bloomberg forum in Singapore that recent high-level meetings have emitted "positive signals" and have heightened the international community's hopes for the advancement of China-US relations.
Han expressed the readiness to enhance communication and dialogue with the United States at all levels, foster mutually beneficial cooperation, effectively handle differences, and collaborate in tackling global challenges.