Russia's Artillery Production Surpasses US and Europe for Ukraine Conflict

Russia is on pace to produce almost three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, giving them a significant advantage as they prepare for a potential new offensive in Ukraine later this year.

According to NATO intelligence and sources familiar with Western efforts to support Ukraine, Russia is currently manufacturing around 250,000 artillery munitions each month, which amounts to approximately 3 million per year. In comparison, the US and Europe combined have a capacity of only about 1.2 million munitions annually that they can send to Kyiv, as stated by a senior European intelligence official.

The US military aimed to manufacture 100,000 rounds of artillery monthly by the end of 2025. This falls short of the Russian monthly production. However, this goal is currently unattainable due to $60 billion in funding for Ukraine being delayed in Congress, as mentioned by a senior Army official last week.

According to a senior NATO official in an interview with CNN, the current situation can be likened to a production battle. The outcome in Ukraine hinges on the equipment and resources each side has for this conflict.

Russia is currently firing about 10,000 shells per day, while Ukraine is only firing around 2,000 shells daily. In some areas along the 600-mile front, the ratio is even worse, as reported by a European intelligence official.

This shortage of firepower comes at a critical time for Ukraine's war efforts, as it faces one of the most dangerous moments since Russia's invasion of Kyiv in February 2022. The funding from the US for arming Ukraine has been depleted, and opposition from Republicans in Congress has put a stop to further assistance.

Russia currently holds the city of Avdiivka in Ukraine and is considered to be leading the battle. Ukraine is facing challenges with a lack of ammunition and a shortage of manpower on the front lines.

Despite receiving advanced military equipment like the M-1 Abrams tank and upcoming F-16 fighter jets from the US and its allies, experts believe that the outcome of the war will depend on which side is able to fire the most artillery shells.

"The top concern we're currently monitoring is the munitions," explained a NATO official. "Specifically, the artillery shells. Russia has a significant production advantage in this area, giving them a strong edge on the battlefield."

The Russian war machine is operating at full capacity.

Russia is operating artillery factories around the clock with rotating 12-hour shifts, according to a NATO official. The number of Russians working in the defense sector has increased to about 3.5 million, up from 2 to 2.5 million before the war. Additionally, Russia is importing ammunition, with Iran sending at least 300,000 artillery shells last year, possibly more, and North Korea providing at least 6,700 containers of ammunition containing millions of shells.

According to an intelligence official, Russia has gone all out in their efforts. They have put everything they have into their war machine, which is now operating at full capacity.

A US official mentioned that a similar action in the United States would be if President Joe Biden utilized the Defense Production Act. This Act grants the president the authority to compel companies to swiftly manufacture equipment to bolster the country's national defense.

A Ukrainian serviceman holds an artillery shell near the town of Kreminna, Ukraine, March 4, 2024.

A Ukrainian serviceman holds an artillery shell near the town of Kreminna, Ukraine, March 4, 2024.

Inna Varenytsia/Reuters

Russia is still not producing enough to meet its needs, according to US and Western officials. They also do not anticipate major battlefield advances from Russia in the near future. Russian production capacity is limited, with factories expected to reach their peak in the next year.

However, Russia's production levels far surpass what the US and Europe are providing for Ukraine, especially without additional funding from the US.

European countries are stepping up to compete with Putin's controlled economy. A German defense company recently revealed its plans to open an ammunition factory in Ukraine, aiming to manufacture hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets annually. Additionally, the company started construction on a new factory in Germany that is projected to produce approximately 200,000 artillery shells per year.

US and Western officials believe that Russia has been able to accelerate its factory production due to its controlled economy led by an autocrat. However, they are confident that capitalist western nations will eventually surpass Russia and produce superior equipment.

Lt. Gen. Steven Basham, the deputy commander of US European Command, mentioned in a recent interview with CNN that having control over the economy may allow Russia to progress quicker than other countries. Nevertheless, he emphasized that the West will have greater long-term economic stability and power.

The West is currently in the early stages of increasing their infrastructure to incorporate the necessary munitions capability. During a period of financial support, the US Army increased the production of artillery shells in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Texas.

One European lawmaker described Russia's output as massive and continuous. They emphasized the importance of not underestimating Russia's determination to outlast others with patience and resilience.

Intelligence officials believe that neither side is currently in a position to make significant gains, but the overall outlook favors Moscow in the long term, especially if the US does not provide additional aid.

“It’s not going well, but it all depends,” said one source familiar with Western intelligence. “If aid restarts and comes quick, all is not lost.”

Targeting Ukraine’s weapons production

Russia has recently focused on Ukraine's domestic defense production using its long-range weapons. According to a NATO official, the targeting has shifted from critical infrastructure to include a lot of focus on the Ukrainian defense industrial base.

According to a senior NATO official, Russia is currently producing between 115 to 130 long-range missiles and 300 to 350 one-way attack drones per month. These drones are based on an Iranian model provided by Tehran. Previously, Russia had a large stockpile of long-range missiles, but now it has decreased to around 700 missiles in total.

The Russians have decided to conserve these weapons for large volleys in order to overwhelm Ukrainian missile defenses. To make up for this, they have increased their use of drones significantly. In fact, they are now sending out approximately four times as many drones per month compared to last winter.

Destroyed Russian tanks near the village of Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on February 13, 2024.

Destroyed Russian tanks near the village of Bohorodychne in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on February 13, 2024.

Russia's main challenge lies in the production of tanks and other armored vehicles. Currently, they are manufacturing approximately 125 tanks per month. However, the majority of these tanks are older models that have been refurbished. According to a NATO official, about 86% of the main battle tanks produced by Russia in 2023 were refurbished. Additionally, Russia has around 5,000 tanks in storage, but a significant portion of them may not be able to undergo refurbishment and are only useful for salvaging parts.

Moscow has lost at least 2,700 tanks, more than twice the total number that they deployed initially to Ukraine in February of 2022, when the invasion began.

Russia’s ‘transformed’ economy

Officials are keeping a close eye on Russia's economy to see how the defense sector, Western sanctions, and Putin's preparations for war are affecting the country's ability to continue the conflict.

According to a NATO official, the war has completely changed Russia's economy. In the past, oil was the main industry, but now defense has taken the top spot, with oil funding its activities.

Russia may face long-term imbalances in the future, according to a NATO official and Basham from the US European Command. However, for now, the current economic system is functioning well.

The NATO official mentioned that despite its simplicity, the economy is expected to remain stable for at least the next 18 months.

The Pentagon is considering using its final source of funding, but has hesitated in the past to spend it without assurance of reimbursement from Congress. CNN has reported that taking from DoD stockpiles without a plan to replace the equipment could affect US military readiness.

A source familiar with Western intelligence questioned whether the Ukrainians would alter their negotiating stance if they no longer received US aid.

Editor's P/S:

The disparity in artillery production between Russia and the US and Europe is alarming. Russia's relentless output of 250,000 munitions monthly, triple that of its Western counterparts, gives it a formidable advantage in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The fact that Ukraine is firing a mere 2,000 shells daily compared to Russia's 10,000 highlights the urgent need for increased support.

The situation is further exacerbated by the lack of funding for Ukraine's defense efforts. The delay in Congress's approval of $60 billion in aid has hampered the US Army's goal of producing 100,000 rounds of artillery monthly by 2025. This funding gap has left Ukraine vulnerable and facing one of its most dangerous moments since the invasion began. The outcome of the war may hinge on the ability to fire the most artillery shells, and Russia's relentless production capacity is a significant threat to Ukraine's defense. the war's outcome. The US and Europe must act swiftly to increase their munitions production capacity and provide the necessary support to Ukraine. Failure to do so could prolong the conflict and further endanger Ukraine's sovereignty.