Opinion: Nikki Haley faces a compelling argument from Trump

The modern GOP base is now made up of Americans who see themselves as the "losers" in the knowledge economy and have a growing distrust of mainstream institutions. The party, particularly its insurgent movements, is gaining support from small businesses and family capital. In today's Republican Party, candidates who appear to be controlled by multinational corporations, foreign powers, and bureaucrats are viewed with suspicion and are at risk of being rejected by the GOP base.

Musa al-Gharbi

Neil van Niekerk

Out of the 13 candidates vying for the 2024 Republican nomination, only two "mainstream" or "establishment" candidates remain as we approach the actual voting. They are former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is polling at less than 3% among Republican voters, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is the top choice of 11% of GOP voters.

Three other candidates are positioning themselves as "populists," despite having economic policies that align closely with mainstream GOP beliefs. These candidates are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur-turned-bestselling author Vivek Ramaswamy, and former President Donald Trump, who also followed mainstream GOP economic policies during his presidency.

Among the establishment candidates, Haley appears to have the best chance at securing the nomination. However, concerns about her ties to "the establishment" and other issues important to the Republican base may leave her vulnerable. As she gains more attention, these perceptions could hinder her already slim chances of challenging Trump, who remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Despite his absence at the recent debate, Trump's influence was strongly felt.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a candidate for the Republican nomination for president, takes part in a CNN Republican town hall event hosted by CNN's Abby Phillip at Grand View University in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday, December 13, 2023.

Will Lanzoni/CNN

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The rising GOP candidate is facing a challenging situation. Despite receiving support from NeverTrump Republicans, foreign lobbying groups, big financiers, and some Democrats, this has put her in a tough position. While the resources provided by these donors are essential for promoting her name and message nationwide, the downside is the risk of being associated with Democrats, "globalists," corporations, and "the swamp," making her appear as the Hillary Clinton of the Republican Party.

At the recent debate, Haley was targeted with attacks that painted her as such. Her vulnerability was exposed as she was compared to Clinton by her opponents, highlighting her previous positions in public office and her ties to multinational corporations. Similar criticisms were leveled at Clinton, and Haley is now facing scrutiny for these behaviors.

During the debate, DeSantis claimed that Nikki Haley would prioritize big donors over the needs of the people, just like in the 2016 Democratic primaries.

Attack ads aired during NewsNation's debate coverage focused on Haley's past comments about Clinton inspiring her political ambitions and compared the two politicians' track records. DeSantis' campaign spent $1.54 million to heavily broadcast these ads in Iowa ahead of the country's first caucus.

Nikki Haley and Donald Trump.

Getty Images

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Haley quickly dismissed accusations of donor influence against DeSantis as sour grapes, pointing out that many of the same donors had previously supported DeSantis until they switched to her. This effectively undermined DeSantis's electability and portrayed him as a hypocrite. However, if she were to face similar accusations against Trump, she would be more vulnerable.

Trump is currently being investigated for financial impropriety, despite his denial of any wrongdoing. During the 2016 campaign, he gained popularity for his frank and unapologetic admission of attempting to use money to curry influence with politicians. Trump claimed to have firsthand experience with how easily politicians could be bought and sold by millionaires and billionaires like himself.

He also made it clear that he always seeks to profit, proudly discussing how he took advantage of tax code loopholes to reduce his liability. His self-serving actions, such as holding official state events on his personal properties and charging the government, or opening a hotel in Washington and hosting lobbyists and diplomats with business interests, were seen by many as business savvy rather than corruption. Trump could argue that, ultimately, he didn't need more money and wasn't beholden to financial interests like others might be.

Similarly, despite Trump receiving significant backing from major donors and allegedly granting political favors in return, he has managed to persuade many of his supporters that he remains unaccountable to these donors in practice. In the 2016 election, he raised only half as much money as Clinton but still emerged victorious, also spending $66 million of his own funds in his pursuit of the presidency. When donors attempted to pressure him into altering his stances on certain issues in exchange for their support, he appeared unfazed and unyielding. For instance, he famously turned down support from the influential Koch network during the 2016 campaign and criticized those who did accept Koch money as "puppets."

Florida Governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis attended a CNN Republican Town Hall event hosted by CNN's Jake Tapper at Grand View University in Des Moines, Iowa on December 12, 2023.

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In the current cycle, Haley is being aggressively championed by the Koch network. This will almost certainly be a point of contention later in the cycle.

Currently, the strongest argument made by the former South Carolina governor on this issue is the one she tested during the debate on Wednesday. Haley stated that she is willing to accept money from anyone, but it does not affect her stance on any issue. Unfortunately for her, this tactic has failed in the past when used against Trump. Clinton made a similar assertion in 2016 when accused of corruption, stating that donors never influenced her vote. However, this did not work well for her, and Haley likely would not fare much better.

So far, Haley has mostly tried to avoid upsetting the former president. On the debate stage, she was the least critical of all the remaining candidates, possibly in hopes of being chosen as Trump's VP pick if he ultimately wins the Republican nomination. However, if it comes down to a confrontation between Trump and Haley - as would be necessary for her to win the nomination from him - Haley would likely be quite vulnerable against the former president due to her paid speeches, board positions, and high-profile donors.

In comparison to Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley may be seen as more vulnerable to Trump's accusation of being "bought and paid for." Even if Haley manages to avoid the appearance of being influenced by donors, the perceived alignment between her goals and those of multinational corporations, Wall Street executives, Democratic donors, and foreign lobbying groups could reinforce the view that she represents "the establishment" and that Trump is on the side of cultural and socioeconomic divides.

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Connect with us on Twitter and Facebook. In a hypothetical scenario where Haley secures the GOP nomination and competes against Biden, she wouldn't be able to create the same contrast as Trump, DeSantis, or Ramaswamy. Unlike them, Haley isn't portraying herself as a "populist" but rather as a politician who can effectively navigate the establishment without seeking to dismantle it. She presents herself as someone with mainstream views and a strong record of accomplishments, much like Biden.

This strategy could be effective for her during a general election, attracting some moderate and independent voters who strongly supported Biden in the last election. However, it also creates a challenging path for her in the GOP primary, making it less likely that she will even make it to that contest.