Opinion: A Fresh Strategy to Counter Putin in the New Year

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in the UK, and author of "Russias War on Everybody: And What it Means for You," expresses his own views in this commentary. The renewed campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilians by Russia has begun, and despite being long expected, Ukraine's Western backers seem to be making the same mistakes in responding to it as they did last year. For more opinions, visit CNN.

Keir Giles

Munira Mustaffa

In the recent winter attack on Ukraine's heating and power infrastructure, aimed at crippling the country, Western aid efforts primarily aimed at repairing and maintaining the infrastructure to ensure that Ukraine's lights stayed on. However, this also inadvertently created additional targets for Russia to potentially attack.

This year, the focus is on providing air defense systems to improve the protection of Ukraine's skies. However, the issue with both of these strategies is that they are defensive and reactive, and do not address the problem at its source by preventing the strikes.

Currently, Russia has no negative consequences for carrying out attacks on Ukrainian residential areas and critical infrastructure. This is due to the Western countries, especially the US, being unable to influence Russian decisions. However, simply allowing Ukraine to continue suffering is not a viable long-term strategy. If the Western supporters of Kyiv want to minimize civilian casualties, they must recognize that they can take action rather than remaining passive.

The global community has allowed Russia to wage the war on Ukraine, creating safe zones from which Russia can launch missile attacks against Ukrainian apartment buildings without concern for counter-strikes. This is one of the most obscene and perverse elements of the conflict.

Ukrainian prisoners of war show their reactions during a prisoner exchange near Sumy, Ukraine on Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024. This exchange between Russia and Ukraine marks the largest single release of captives since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. (Photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, via AP)

Ukraine and Russia execute largest prisoner swap since start of war. The lack of resistance shows a lack of imagination and initiative, failing to recognize the absurdity and strangeness of Russia's unchecked behavior, unchallenged by anyone except Ukraine.

Mental paralysis is based on the assumption that Russia's size, strength, irrationality, or nuclear weapons make it impervious to influence. Russian state behavior is often viewed as a force of nature to be observed helplessly, rather than the outcome of deliberate decisions by its leaders, decisions that can be affected by both incentives and deterrents.

Halting the attacks does not necessarily mean retaliating against the sources of the missile and drone strikes. This is largely prohibited due to the US ban on using US-supplied weapons against Russia within its own borders. However, this does not mean that the West, with or without the US, has no leverage at all.

Various approaches to discourage and prevent specific Russian actions in Ukraine were considered and dismissed, such as deploying NATO troops in Ukraine prior to the invasion without US support. However, alternative measures were presented to Russia as clear choices. For example, in December 2022, the UK informed Russia that it would provide Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine if attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure persisted. As a result, Russia's Black Sea Fleet suffered a significant setback, and the risk to Crimea remains.

The West has the ability to take actions that would truly displease Moscow. This could involve making promises for increased deliveries of high-profile weapons systems, such as combat aircraft or long-range missiles, or showing a more serious commitment to seizing Russian state assets frozen abroad as reparations for the harm caused to Ukraine. By connecting undesirable consequences to changes in Russian behavior, the West could gain influence and leverage over Moscow. However, this valuable opportunity is rarely taken advantage of.

There is plenty more the West could do that Moscow would genuinely dislike.

Keir Giles

The Biden administration has consistently expressed its commitment to supporting Ukraine. However, it has also consistently made it clear that it is reluctant to engage in direct confrontation with Russia. This messaging has replaced any tangible efforts to deter Moscow. President Joe Biden has pledged to support Ukraine while also highlighting Ukraine's commitment to not using US-supplied weapons systems against Russia.

Throughout the war, the US has provided Ukraine with weapons and materials that have been crucial to its ability to resist the invaders, despite criticism of Washington's reluctance to provide certain specific weapons systems.

The interruption of these flows by elements of the US Congress who prioritize domestic politics over the global system supporting US prosperity has caused significant obstacles. Additionally, Ukraine's military leadership cannot make concrete plans without clarity on the availability of military equipment. Despite the differences between the White House, Congress, and the US military, it is evident that the United States is fully committed to supporting Ukraine in evicting the Russian invasion force.

The evidence points to a singular conclusion: the US political establishment has determined that aiding Ukraine in defeating Russia is not aligned with the broader strategic interests of the United States. This showcases an incapacity or unwillingness to acknowledge the severe implications for the US and the broader West if Russia were to succeed.

This situation draws concerning parallels with the lead-up to the Second World War. Vocal isolationist factions in the US argue that conflicts in distant lands are not a concern for the homeland. Meanwhile, there are disagreements over which challenge to prioritize, as if there is a choice, with Russia and China now assuming the roles once held by 1930s Germany and Japan.

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Follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Meanwhile, the US may have anticipated that using non-escalatory actions such as economic sanctions and a careful, step-by-step approach to arming Ukraine would be enough to resolve a strategic conflict with Russia. However, it is clear that this strategy has failed.

Throughout the conflict, the UK has consistently advocated for Ukraine to be supported in defeating Russia, rather than just surviving. Europe, alarmed by the threat to US support, has announced plans to increase weapons production for Ukraine. However, this is not a substitute for a deeper change in mindset on how to deal with Russia. With the US no longer leading a coalition, there is an opportunity for others to step up. Front-line states like Poland, fully aware of the threat, can play a greater role in changing how the West understands the conflict, not just in open combat in Ukraine, but in the broader war that Russia is waging on the global system that has kept Europe safe for decades.

Protecting that system will be intricate, chaotic, and costly, requiring difficult decisions from both Europe and North America.

However, in Russia's campaign of terror in the skies of Ukraine today, the situation is painfully straightforward: the less the West is willing to demonstrate to Russia that its actions will have repercussions, the more Ukrainian individuals will perish.