Hamas Attack on October 7: What Israel Knew

The unexpected Hamas attack on October 7 caught Israel off guard, causing widespread repercussions that continue to affect the country. The assault involved over 1,500 Hamas fighters crossing the border into Israel and resulted in the deaths of at least 1,200 Israelis, with others still being held captive by the militant group.

According to a report by the New York Times, Israel had acquired Hamas' attack plan over a year before it occurred. Israeli officials reportedly viewed the plan as too ambitious and complex for the group to execute, dismissing it as merely aspirational. The claim was also reported by other sources, including the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Heres what we know about Israel and the US advance knowledge of the attack.

What did Israel reportedly know about the attack?

Israeli officials had acquired a document outlining Hamas' battle plan for the terror attack on October 7, over a year before the attack took place. The New York Times reported this, citing documents, emails, and interviews. The 40-page document did not specify the date of the attack but detailed the type of deadly incursion that Hamas ultimately carried out in Israeli territory in October. The Times reviewed the translated document.

Israeli military forces and their vehicles are seen gathered at the Gaza Strip border on November 30, 2023, during the 7th day of a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas militants. Both parties have agreed to extend the ceasefire for an additional day, during which hostages will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners and aid will be provided to the war-stricken Gaza Strip. (Photo by GIL COHEN-MAGEN / AFP)

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Israeli military and intelligence officials rejected the plan, believing it would be too challenging for Hamas to execute, as reported by the Times.

The document, referred to as "Jericho Wall" by Israeli authorities, described an attack that would overpower defenses in the Gaza Strip, seize control of Israeli cities, and target critical military installations. According to the Times, Hamas executed the plan with precision on October 7.

What has Israels government said about its intelligence?

On that occasion, there was a coordinated attack by Hamas militants from Gaza, marking the deadliest single-day assault on Israel since the country's establishment in 1948.

The attack was widely regarded as a significant failure of Israeli intelligence, with several high-ranking defense and security officials stepping forward in October to accept some responsibility for the mistakes that led to the attacks. In a later-deleted social media post, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced harsh public criticism for accusing security chiefs of failing to warn him about the impending attack.

Netanyahu stated at the time that all defense officials assessed that Hamas was deterred. In a recent CNN interview, he declined to answer whether he would take responsibility for the failure to prevent the attack.

What did the US know before the attack?

The "Jericho Wall" document was widely circulated among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but it remains unclear whether Netanyahu or other top political leaders had seen the document.

Prior to the seismic attack on southern Israel, sources familiar with the intelligence revealed that the US intelligence community had produced two assessments, which were partially based on intelligence from Israel, warning the Biden administration of an increased risk for Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the weeks leading up to the event. One of the updates from September 28, based on multiple streams of intelligence, specifically warned about the potential for Hamas to escalate rocket attacks across the border.

On October 5, a CIA wire warned of a growing likelihood of violence by Hamas. The day before the attack on October 6, US officials shared reports from Israel that indicated unusual Hamas activity, indicating that an imminent attack was forthcoming.

How was Hamas able to hide some of its plans?

According to sources, the American assessments did not contain any tactical details or indications of the extensive scope, scale, and brutal nature of the operation carried out by Hamas on October 7. It is unclear whether any of these US assessments were shared with Israel, which provides much of the intelligence on which the US reports are based.

Sources familiar with the matter revealed that intelligence passed on to the US indicated that a small group of Hamas members had spent two years planning a deadly surprise attack. The operatives utilized a network of hardwired phones installed in the tunnels beneath Gaza to communicate secretly, making it impossible for Israeli intelligence to track them.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks during a press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, Thursday, November 30, 2023.

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For two years, the small cell operating in the tunnels utilized hardwired phone lines for communication and planning. It remained inactive until it was time to activate and summon hundreds of Hamas fighters for the October 7 attack, according to sources.

To avoid detection by Israeli or US intelligence, the cell refrained from using computers or cell phones throughout the two-year period, the sources added.

The intelligence provided by Israel to US officials uncovered how Hamas concealed the operation's planning using traditional counterintelligence methods, including holding in-person planning meetings and avoiding digital communication that could be tracked by the Israelis in favor of using hardwired phones in the tunnels. Reporting contributed by CNN's Pamela Brown, Zachary Cohen, Katie Bo Lillis, Alex Marquardt, and Natasha Bertrand.