Breaking News: US Intelligence's Astonishing Premonition Unveiled Just Days Before Hamas' Devastating Attack

The Biden administration was alerted by Israel, through intelligence provided by the US intelligence community, about the increased risk of a Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The intelligence reports, dated September 28 and October 5, highlighted the potential for escalated rocket attacks by Hamas. Additionally, on October 6, US officials received information from Israel indicating unusual activity by Hamas, further confirming the imminent attack.

A still from a video shows Hamas militants at a training camp near the Gaza-Israel border.

Hamas

Hamas militants trained for its deadly attack in plain sight and less than a mile from Israel's heavily fortified border

None of the American evaluations provided any tactical specifics or indications of the extensive extent, scale, and sheer ruthlessness of the operation executed by Hamas on October 7, according to sources. It remains uncertain whether any of these US evaluations were shared with Israel, the primary source of intelligence for the US reports.

Video Ad Feedback

Ex-CIA director has a warning about a potential 'end result' in Israel-Hamas conflict

01:53

- Source:

CNN

Israel, Gaza and the West Bank are also on a "hot spots" list included in intelligence briefings for senior officials almost daily, a person who receives the briefings said.

The intelligence community prepares intelligence assessments to provide information to policy makers, assisting them in making informed decisions.

According to a knowledgeable source, this situation is not a recent development. It has been a customary occurrence between Hamas and Israel throughout history. The reports simply reaffirmed what was already known and anticipated.

The Biden administration received a series of alarming assessments from its own intelligence community and Middle Eastern allies over the past year, signaling a significant wave of warnings. This raises concerns regarding the level of attention given by the US and Israel to the potential risks involved.

Israeli tanks move near Gaza border as Israeli army deploys military vehicles around the Gaza Strip, Israel on October 12, 2023.

Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu/Getty Images)

A senior official from an Arab country in the region expressed that their country had continuously voiced concerns to both US and Israeli officials about the escalating level of Palestinian anger, emphasizing the need for attention. "Sadly, they consistently ignored our warnings," lamented the official.

Similarly, a Middle Eastern ambassador situated in Washington, DC, also informed CNN that their government had consistently alerted the White House and US intelligence officials about an increasing stockpile of Hamas weaponry and the mounting anger among Palestinians, which was reaching a critical point of eruption.

According to the ambassador, the presence of weapons in Gaza surpasses anyone's imagination. Additionally, the ambassador expressed concerns about Hamas' possession of arms causing real problems in the West Bank, emphasizing that Hamas control over the West Bank is a significant issue. These concerns have been raised consistently in every meeting over the past year and a half.

And in February, CIA Director Bill Burns expressed his apprehension regarding the potential escalation of fragility and violence between Israelis and Palestinians during a lecture at the Georgetown School of Foreign Service.

CIA Director William Burns during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, March 8, 2023.

Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP

"It should not be concluded that the intelligence community was not monitoring this situation from a strategic perspective—because in fact, they were," stated a US official to CNN.

However, despite these strategic warnings, they proved to be of no assistance to US or Israeli officials in predicting the events of October 7. On this day, over 1,000 Hamas fighters infiltrated the Israeli border in an operation that resulted in the deaths of more than a thousand Israelis. Most US and Israeli officials who were keeping track of the intelligence believed that there would likely be only another instance of small-scale violence by Hamas, such as rocket fire that would be intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome, as explained by one source familiar with the intelligence.

"We would immediately inform any ally if we had previous knowledge or current information about an impending attack," stated Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Friday.

Both senior Biden administration officials and current/former intelligence officials consistently assert their dedication to addressing the current crisis, emphasizing that it is premature to assess how the planning for such a significant attack was overlooked.

Multiple current and former intelligence officials, along with lawmakers who were briefed on US intelligence, disputed the idea that the lack of timely warning about the attack fell solely on the US. This is because a significant portion of the intelligence reports regarding Gaza originated from Israel initially.

{{img_placeholder_4}}

Valentin (Eli) Ghnassia, 23, lost his life in a confrontation with Hamas militants at Kibbutz Be'eeri near the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip. During his funeral in Jerusalem, Israel, his mother (L), sister (R), and immediate family expressed their profound grief and anguish. The funeral took place on October 12, 2023.

According to an additional intelligence source, the US perspective can be summarized as follows: "Israel overlooked this information, not us. We have a high level of trust in Shin Bet, the IDF, Mossad, and other agencies."

The New York Times also covered the presence of certain reports but clarified that President Joe Biden was not given a detailed briefing on them.

The Office of Director of National Intelligence and the CIA declined to comment. The White House did not respond on Friday to repeated requests for comment from CNN.

Missed signs

After extensive discussions with numerous intelligence, military, and congressional officials, it has become increasingly evident to US officials and lawmakers that Israel's inability to anticipate the eruption of deep-seated anger in Gaza can be attributed primarily to a lack of innovative thinking.

Hamas probably concealed the coordination of their operation by resorting to conventional counterintelligence methods, such as conducting face-to-face planning meetings and avoiding digital communication channels that could be monitored by the Israeli authorities. However, American officials also maintain that Israel had grown complacent towards the potential threat posed by Hamas and failed to identify crucial signs indicating the group's preparations for a large-scale initiative.

Israeli officials did not acknowledge the regular training exercises conducted by Hamas, which indicated that the group was gearing up for an upcoming assault. According to a CNN investigation, the militants were trained in multiple locations in Gaza, with one site being less than a mile away from Israel's border.

A source familiar with US intelligence stated that there were various signs of a shift in Hamas' behavior, both in their public statements and actions, indicating a greater inclination towards violence and attacks.

In general, the Biden administration's public stance prior to the attack did not convey an increased level of concern regarding the possibility of violence. The annual assessment of global threats by the intelligence community, which was published in February, does not make any reference to Hamas.

{{img_placeholder_5}}

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan speaks during the daily briefing at the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023.

Susan Walsh/AP

National security adviser Jake Sullivan stated at The Atlantic Festival on September 29 that the Middle East region is currently experiencing a period of greater tranquility than it has in the past twenty years. Sullivan acknowledged that challenges persist, such as the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians; however, he emphasized that the amount of time he now dedicates to addressing crises and conflicts in the Middle East is significantly lower compared to his predecessors since the events of 9/11.

Hamas had abstained from engaging in two recent minor cross-border conflicts between another Palestinian militant group and Israel. Israel believed that by providing work permits to Gazans and allowing Qatari funds into the country, Hamas had been deterred from further actions and had become complacent.

"Hamas is demonstrating significant restraint and recognizes the consequences of further acts of defiance," stated Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel's national security adviser, in an interview with an Israeli radio station six days prior to the attack.

According to a former intelligence official and another source knowledgeable about current intelligence, it is possible that the Hamas operation was even more successful than the group had anticipated. The second individual stated that it is very likely, if not certain, that Hamas greatly surpassed their own expectations. They initially believed that the assault would result in a few dozen casualties, but they never expected it to escalate to the extent that it did.

This has been updated with additional information.