Examining Ukraine's Challenging Week: The Role of the US and the EU

Ukraine is facing a concerning issue of "drowning not waving" as it grapples with effectively communicating the severity of the ongoing war. Offering an honest appraisal of the conflict's challenges may be risky, as it could lead to a decline in morale and support. This was evident when public support waned in the years following Obama's troop increase in Afghanistan, partly due to a lack of transparency about the war's progression.

Ukraine's poor portrayal of its issues is largely attributed to the short-sightedness of its allies. The lack of comprehension in certain parts of the US Congress is astounding. This week, a congressman proposed that Ukraine should specify a clear price tag and a simple, concrete goal. It's astonishing that, after two costly American wars in the last twenty years, congressional memory is so brief and understanding is so limited.

Kyiv consistently emphasizes past victories and future objectives, citing the reclamation of half of the territory taken by Russia last year and the strategic damage to Russia's Black Sea presence. President Zelensky has also mentioned a secret plan for 2024.

However, the reality is that the situation on the frontlines for Kyiv is dire. Russian forces are making territorial gains in the eastern city of Avdiivka and along the Zaporizhzhia frontline. The counteroffensive has been slow and costly for Ukraine, with renewed vigor from Russian units posing a significant challenge. Ukraine's attempts to advance into Russian lines across the Dnipro River have resulted in immense casualties, supply line issues, and dim prospects for success.

Henrik Pettersson and Reneé Rigdon, CNN

Kyiv is currently experiencing almost nightly cruise missile attacks, which Ukrainian officials say are mostly being thwarted by air defenses. As long as these defenses hold, there is hope that Ukraine’s infrastructure will remain intact as it enters spring. However, the Biden administration has warned that the air defenses could be the first to suffer if US funding runs out.

Zelensky has had a very challenging week. Despite his team celebrating the symbolic victory of beginning negotiations for EU accession, the reality is that actual EU membership is contingent upon ending the war and ensuring Ukraine’s viability as a nation, both of which are currently uncertain. Zelensky called this a sign that "history is made by those who don't get tired of fighting for freedom."

Instead, Zelensky faces two urgent funding disasters in four days. Hungary's veto of $55bn in EU funding for Ukraine's war efforts was met with assurances from EU officials that early January would likely see a unanimous, positive vote. But Viktor Orban, a right-wing populist with an inexplicable fondness for indicted war criminal Vladimir Putin, has opened the door to European disunity. The West's cohesion up to this point was an outlier. The elections across Europe and vacillation ahead will likely hear greater demands for diplomacy and answers as to how the war ends.

Ukrainian soldiers take a break at their posts following a battle, amid ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine, near the front-line city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region in May. (Photo credit: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters)

Western officials are cautioning that Ukraine will be unable to withstand Russia without increased aid from the US. Zelensky's recent trip to Washington and his impassioned appeals did not yield the desired results. The delay in resuming funding has already had a negative impact on Ukraine. The political posturing and delays have put essential assistance, crucial for defending US's European NATO allies from being drawn into the worst European land war since the 1940s, at the mercy of partisan negotiations.

The Congressional debate was not focused on war policy in Ukraine, Kyiv's effectiveness, or the reasons for the failed counteroffensive. Instead, it devolved into a shallow exchange of US border policy and unreasonable demands for Ukraine to predict the future course of the war. This represents a stunning failure of American foreign policy, with consequences that will reverberate over the next several decades. Not since Neville Chamberlain's ill-fated attempt to negotiate with the Nazis has so much been at stake.

The military situation in Ukraine was already dire before Congress halted US aid. Now, the looming possibility of Ukraine facing Russia without NATO support weighs heavily on the minds of those who should be focused on the upcoming winter battles.

If there is no assistance, one gloomy Ukrainian medic proclaimed on Thursday after months of tending to injured troops and losing a colleague in the summer, "it's over for us." Other soldiers appear more determined, insisting they will continue fighting because they have no other choice. However, it is clear: if Ukraine does not receive financial support from the US or EU, or if one of them fails to provide aid, it is highly likely that most of Ukraine will fall under Russian occupation within the next two years.

This scenario would place a hostile, overly aggressive, and vengeful Russian military directly on the borders of NATO, becoming an immediate problem for Washington. This is because, outside of the NATO treaty of mutual defense, on a practical level, secure and democratic countries in Europe are crucial American trading partners and essential for the US's global influence.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky walks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to a joint press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.

(Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)

Ukraines European allies are letting it down

Zelensky must navigate an America divided about providing support to Ukraine. Admitting Ukraine's struggles could hinder efforts to secure funding, but portraying Ukraine as thriving raises questions about the need for additional aid. Some Republicans argue that it is futile to aid Ukraine against Russia, while others debate how much aid is justified before taking a hard line against Moscow's aggression. The debate bears a striking resemblance to previous international conflicts.