Challenges Mounting for Rishi Sunak

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must be feeling down these days. The local elections are coming up in just two weeks, and it seems like his Conservative Party will not do well. Many people think that Sunak is in a position of power, but he doesn't actually have much influence.

Sunak has announced that there will be a general election this year, although the date has not been confirmed yet. Many believe that he is delaying the announcement in order to avoid a major defeat that could potentially lead to his party being irrelevant in politics for the next ten years. The general assumption is that the longer he waits, the higher the possibility of changing public opinion in his favor.

The challenge for Sunak is that his actions often end up having negative consequences.

This week, an example of his impactful actions is the world-leading smoking ban he introduced. If approved by the upper house of parliament, this ban will be a significant part of his political legacy.

The smoking ban was only passed by MPs because it received support from the opposition Labour Party. Surprisingly, some members of his own cabinet, particularly those believed to have ambitions for his position, voted against the ban. Even his two predecessors publicly mocked him for it. Former PM Boris Johnson, speaking to a Canadian audience, jokingly said, "The party of Winston Churchill wants to ban [cigars]? Donnez-moi un break, as they say in Quebec. It's just mad."

Rishi Sunak with then-PM Boris Johnson, in happier times

Rishi Sunak with then-PM Boris Johnson, in happier times

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Liz Truss, who had spent the week lobbing grenades at Sunak in the guise of promoting her new book, called the ban a “virtue-signalling piece of legislation.”

Nearly half of Sunak’s MPs did not vote in favor of the plan, showing a surprising division within the Conservatives, who have traditionally seen themselves as the natural party of government. Despite his allies' denial, the notion that Sunak holds any significant authority over his party, government, or country is becoming less believable.

It seems like Sunak has been experiencing a stroke of bad luck. In the past week, inflation has decreased and his key immigration policy has made progress towards becoming law. However, instead of receiving recognition for these achievements, the media has been focused on the launch of Truss's book for several days.

Some of the bad luck he faces is self-inflicted. Last month, the deputy chairman of his party made a surprising move by leaving the Conservatives to join rival right-wing party Reform UK. Lee Anderson, a key ally for the prime minister, holds a significance that Sunak himself lacks.

Anderson, a former working-class miner, hails from a region where the opposition Labour Party typically garners support. Interestingly, Anderson himself used to be a Labour politician. Factors such as Brexit have caused a shift in allegiance among traditional Labour voters, with many now showing support for the Conservative Party since 2019.

Sunak's November 2023 interview of Elon Musk was seen by many as an excruciating attempt to impress the billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO.

Sunak's November 2023 interview of Elon Musk was seen by many as an excruciating attempt to impress the billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO.

Sunak, a wealthy tech entrepreneur with a private education, may not seem relatable to many voters at first glance. However, he took a stand against Anderson, a Conservative member who made inappropriate remarks about the Muslim mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. Sunak found Anderson's comments unacceptable and as a result, Anderson was suspended from the party. Following this incident, Anderson switched sides and joined a political party that poses a significant challenge to the Conservatives in the upcoming election.

Sunak made the decision to appoint Anderson as deputy party chairman, despite his history of making controversial statements that often lead to embarrassment. Now, Anderson openly campaigns against his former boss on a daily basis, making Sunak's choice appear foolish.

Sunak has a tendency to surround himself with individuals who end up causing him trouble. For instance, he had to dismiss his former home secretary, Suella Braverman, after she wrote an article criticizing the police without the Prime Minister's approval. Following her removal, Braverman accused Sunak of betraying her over migration policy.

Sunak has lost authority among Conservative voters due to being consistently outflanked by members of his own party on the right. Despite his personal politics aligning with Johnson on many issues, he is perceived as a softer Conservative compared to Johnson.

Sunak's authority has gradually diminished over time. A former government official expressed to CNN that the Conservative party feels stagnant and beyond saving. This sentiment is reflected in Sunak's unfavorable public image, with some finding him unlikeable, odd, and irritable.

Sunak apologized to Adidas Samba fans after he was accused of ruining the shoe's credibility by wearing a pair earlier this month.

Sunak apologized to Adidas Samba fans after he was accused of ruining the shoe's credibility by wearing a pair earlier this month.

It's difficult to disagree with that assessment. The polls just don't seem to get better. Each positive aspect is always accompanied by a significant drawback. For instance, his controversial plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda for processing may likely be approved by parliament next week. However, the immediate result of this bill has been an increase in the number of small boat crossings that he is trying to stop - up by 56% in the first quarter of 2024, as reported by the EU's Frontex border agency.

European officials believe that the increase in people entering the UK is due to the anticipation of a stricter immigration bill being passed. This rush is driven by the fear of it becoming more difficult to enter the country. However, voters who want to see a decrease in migration may not fully grasp this nuance. Instead, they may only focus on the significant 56% increase and question the effectiveness of the new policy before the next election.

In the coming months, Sunak is expected to focus on offering tax cuts that may not satisfy the more conservative members of his party. Additionally, he will likely make promises on controversial right-wing issues, but may face criticism from figures like Braverman and Truss for not being strong enough.

Truss is best known for being the shortest-serving PM in history. Her legacy will always be linked to a joke about a lettuce that a newspaper editor believed would outlast her (it did). When even she is joking about herself, you know things must be pretty rough.

Editor's P/S:

Sunak's political standing appears increasingly precarious, with his party facing dismal prospects in upcoming elections. Despite his efforts to enact policies such as a smoking ban and address immigration, he has faced opposition within his own party and a relentless barrage of criticism from former allies. The appointment of Lee Anderson as deputy party chairman, a move that has backfired spectacularly, further highlights Sunak's lack of control over his own administration.

Sunak's image as a weak and ineffective leader has been cemented by his inability to unite his party and effectively respond to public opinion. His approval ratings have plummeted, and his prospects for a successful election seem increasingly unlikely. The Conservative Party, once the dominant force in British politics, now finds itself in a state of disarray, with Sunak seemingly unable to salvage the situation.